Sabalenka or Keys? Swiatek or Andreeva? Who reaches the Indian Wells final?

Late Thursday, Aryna Sabalenka became the final player to secure a spot in the BNP Paribas Open semifinals, cruising past Liudmila Samsonova 6-2, 6-3.

As a result, Friday’s semifinals couldn’t be more tantalizing.

Quite simply, it’s the world’s top two players (Sabalenka and Iga Swiatek) against the Hologic WTA Tour’s two hottest players. Madison Keys and Mirra Andreeva have won a combined 26 straight matches, and they’ve already defeated their high-profile opponents in huge spots this year.

“Yeah,” Sabalenka said in her on-court interview, “crazy matches ahead.”

Indian Wells: Draws | Scores | Order of play

It’s not difficult to make a compelling case for each of the four semifinalists. So, here you go:

No. 2 Iga Swiatek vs. No. 9 Mirra Andreeva (4 p.m. local, 7 p.m. ET)

The case for Swiatek: No one is playing better.

Swiatek’s 6-3, 6-3 quarterfinal defeat of No. 8 Zheng Qinwen was her 10th straight win at Indian Wells -- and her 20th straight set. That’s not just great, it’s approaching perfect.

The overall record in the Coachella Valley? It’s 22-2, a spiffy .917 winning percentage. These hard courts are a touch on the slow side and the generous bounces give her time to set up.

Swiatek bests Zheng, continues record-setting dominance at Indian Wells

You can quibble over the fact that she was broken twice by Zheng, but let’s review Swiatek’s four matches here:

6-2, 6-0 (Caroline Garcia)
6-0, 6-2 (Dayana Yastremska)
6-1, 6-1 (Karolina Muchova)
6-3, 6-3 (Zheng)

Zheng is a formidable player, beating Swiatek in the Olympic semifinals last year and reaching the championship match at the WTA Finals Riyadh.

Swiatek admitted she was motivated by that loss in Paris.

“Yeah, for sure,” she told reporters. “I want to show myself and everybody that I can do it. It’s not nice to lose to anybody, so for sure you want to have a little, I don’t know, like revenge, but it’s nothing personal.”

The same factor is in play against Andreeva.

They met for the first time last year in Cincinnati, and Andreeva actually won the first set before falling in three. Back on Feb. 20 in Dubai, it was a 6-3, 6-3 Andreeva win.

“Last tournament we played, for sure there is a lot to analyze and to learn from,” Swiatek said. “So yeah, I mean, honestly, I’m not overthinking it now.”

The case for Andreeva: Andreeva, in the midst of a spectacular coming-out party, is playing some mind-bending tennis. 

She was a 7-5, 6-3 winner over No. 23 seed Elina Svitolina on Thursday in their first meeting. It was her 10^th consecutive victory, which includes two over Elena Rybakina and that win over Swiatek.

By the numbers: Andreeva's winning streak hits 10 in Indian Wells

Listen to the maturity Andreeva displayed in her post-match press conference:

“Of course it’s always nice to beat a top player -- it was my first win over [Swiatek],” she said. “It doesn't give me any benefit to our match tomorrow, because what happened, happened, and the past is in the past. Tomorrow is going to be a new day, new match, new conditions, new country. Everything is different.”

You have to keep reminding yourself that Andreeva is only 17 years old. Her results beg for context, and we happen to have some for you. They’ve been playing these WTA 1000 events since 2009 and Andreeva is the youngest to reach multiple semifinals. Previously, Victoria Azarenka was the youngest to reach consecutive WTA 1000 semifinals -- and she was two years older.

Another tasty morsel: Coco Gauff has the most wins of any teenager in the WTA 1000s, 10. But Andreeva has already collected eight, and she’s got more than two years to surpass that.

One more. Andreeva is the first under-18 player to put together a 10-match win streak since Nicole Vaidisova in 2005 -- two years before Andreeva was born.

Andreeva is bursting with a confidence infused by her coach Conchita Martínez. She has yet to drop a set in four matches. Every time Svitolina threatened to go ahead, Andreeva came up with the goods. Ultimately, she saved five of six break points -- and converted four against Svitolina.

“I’m going to try my best to prepare in the best way for our match,” Andreeva said. “And I’m sure that the match is going to be great, because our head-to-head is 1-all. I think it’s going to be an entertaining match, and we’re just going to see who is going to be better tomorrow.”

 No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka vs. No. 5 Madison Keys (6 p.m. local, 9 p.m. ET)

The case for Sabalenka: Sabalenka has been an Indian Wells champion on one previous occasion -- but it came at the age of 20 in doubles, playing in 2019 with Elise Mertens.

You can bet she’s bent on winning this singles title that has managed to elude her in five previous attempts. Two years ago, she fell in a tight final to Elena Rybakina.

Interestingly, this is the best WTA 1000 result for Sabalenka when she’s been No. 1. She’ll be highly motivated to beat Keys in this rematch of the Australian Open final back in January. Curious historical note: Sabalenka won the title in each of the previous two tournaments she defeated Samsonova -- Adelaide 2023 and Cincinnati 2024.

Sabalenka has been a little unsettled as she’s moved through the draw in straight sets. Her first match, against McCartney Kessler, immediately went into a tiebreak and she eventually prevailed 7-6(4), 6-3. After defeating Lucia Bronzetti 6-1, 6-2, she was pushed by No. 83-ranked Sonay Kartal.

Samsonova broke Sabalenka to open the match and actually took a 2-0 lead before losing the next six games. She pushed that string to nine straight in the second set and ran away in cold, extremely windy conditions. 

The match point -- perhaps the best of the contest -- ended with a running forehand that Sabalenka said she borrowed from ATP No. 3 Carlos Alcaraz.

“I have to watch his matches more often,” Sabalenka said, “so I start moving like him,” Sabalenka said.

The case for Keys: After rallying to defeat Donna Vekic in three sets, Keys put on a 6-1, 6-1 masterclass against Belinda Bencic in the quarterfinals. It was over in 64 minutes and left some glittering statistics in its wake. The 30-year-old American …

• Has won 16 straight matches, the longest streak since Swiatek’s 21 last season from Madrid to Wimbledon. She’s the third oldest to do that since 1990, younger than only Martina Navratilova and Serena Williams.
• Is the first player to start the season by winning 18 of 19 matches since Simona Halep in 2018.
• Is into her first Indian Wells semifinal -- in her 12th try.

That kind of perseverance has carried Keys this year after an extreme makeover of her game. How far has she come? Last year, her 18th win of the season came in July at Wimbledon.

Does she even remember what losing feels like?

“That’s probably something that you’ll never really forget,” Keys said in her post-match press conference. “I don’t think I’ve ever had a streak this long, but obviously would like for it to go even further.”

Sabalenka leads the head-to-head series 4-2, but Keys won the last one -- 6-3, 2-6, 7-5 in Melbourne for her first Grand Slam singles title. Keys is 5-0 against Top 10 players this year and has won two of the three events she’s played. 

Keys was asked if she’s ever felt this confident on a tennis court. This answer should give Keys’ three fellow semifinalists pause:

“Probably not. I think the reality of winning as many matches as I have this early in a season hasn’t ever really happened for me, so I think there is definitely a lot of just kind of confidence from all those wins under your belt.

Keys fires 30 winners past Bencic to move into Indian Wells semifinals

“I think it kind of gives me the confidence to, in really tight situations, just continue to go for whatever I want to.”

There’s one more massive motivation. Keys will try to become the first Indian Wells women’s singles champion from the United States since Serena Williams in 2001. 

“I would not be surprised if you saw some really great results from the U.S. women,” Keys said before the tournament began.

It wouldn’t be surprising if it was Keys who ended the winless streak.