Case for the Dubai semifinalists: A closer look at an unexpected final four

Apologies to all of you folks who have been messaging your congratulations to Clara Tauson. Outside of family and close friends, she’s been unable to return the favor. That’s because she’s got a lot going on at the moment.

After upsetting World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka in the Round of 16 at the Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships …

“My phone has been blowing up,” Tauson told reporters. “I’m sorry to those people, but it’s been quite a lot. It’s more important that I keep my focus here. After the tournament I can talk to everyone.”

Dubai: Draws | Scores | Order of play 

And now, after a straight-sets victory over Linda Noskova, Tauson is one of three truly surprising semifinalists.

Friday’s final four features:

• Mirra Andreeva, the youngest player to beat Iga Swiatek in a WTA-level match and the youngest to reach the final four in this tournament celebrating its 25th anniversary.
• Tauson, the 22-year-old from Denmark who lost to Sabalenka at the Australian Open, had the audacity to beat her Wednesday and is into her very first WTA Tour 1000 semifinal.
• Karolina Muchova, a four-time Grand Slam semifinalist still trying to find her rhythm, looking to return to top form.
• Elena Rybakina, at No. 7, the only player ranked among the Top 10 in the PIF WTA rankings still alive.

We make the case for each of the semifinalists:

No. 6 Elena Rybakina vs. No. 12 Mirra Andreeva

The case for Rybakina

Simply put, Rybakina has a vast edge in both experience and dangerous weapons over the rest of the semifinal field.

In her 6-2, 7-6(2) win over Sofia Kenin, Rybakina fired 17 aces -- a tournament high -- and 46 winners.

Rybakina is only 25 years old, but she’s beginning to rack up some impressive numbers. This is her 30th WTA Tour semifinal since 2019, something only Sabalenka, Swiatek and Maria Sakkari have achieved. And the quality of her work has been impressive, too.

This is her ninth WTA 1000 semifinal, and only Swiatek has a higher winning percentage in these elite events than Rybakina’s 72-27 (.727). Doing the math, this will be a milestone match for Rybakina, her 100th in the WTA 1000 format.

And while Andreeva has consistently handled older players, Rybakina is 5-0 against players aged under 18. 

The case for Andreeva

Not only is she the youngest player in the Top 100 PIF WTA Rankings -- she’s the only teenager in that coveted space.

You could see Andreeva and her no-fear game coming from a long way off.

Now 17, she first came to mainstream attention two years ago by reaching the fourth round in Madrid. She got to the quarterfinals there last year, again losing to Aryna Sabalenka. A month later, she flipped the script and beat Sabalenka in the quarters at Roland Garros.

On Thursday, her quarterfinal 6-3, 6-3 takedown of Swiatek was definitive. Andreeva, who was down a break in the second set, stroked 10 aces (to none for Swiatek) and saved seven of eight break points.

“No matter what the moment was,” Swiatek said later, “she was playing kind of similar. I wasn’t able to play my level. She just used it. So that’s what good players do.”

Rybakina won their only previous match, a three-setter in the 2023 Round of 16 at Beijing, from a set and a break down. But that won’t faze Andreeva.

“Big server,” Andreeva said. “She goes for her shots. She’s very aggressive. In a way I think a bit similar with Aryna.

“It’s going to be an interesting match. It’s not going to be easy because it’s semifinal. I think we are both going to get some pressure. I think the stronger one tomorrow wins.”

Andreeva has been uncommonly strong in Dubai, dropping only 16 games in four matches. And that includes wins over Swiatek and Marketa Vondrousova, two former Grand Slam singles champions. She’s the youngest player ever to defeat multiple major winners in a WTA 1000. (Andreeva has already defeated multiple major winners in a Grand Slam, knocking off Victoria Azarenka and Sabalenka at Roland Garros last year.)

Clara Tauson vs. Karolina Muchova

The case for Tauson

No one has more wins than Tauson this year in Hologic WTA Tour events. She’s tied at 14 with Swiatek and Australian Open champion Madison Keys -- and will fancy her chances to get to No. 15 in Thursday’s semifinal.

Let that sink in for a moment. Tauson, currently ranked No.38, can take the early season lead in victories. She ran the table (5-0) on her way to the title in Auckland, lost to two-time defending champion Sabalenka in the third round of the Australian Open and reached the semifinals in the Linz 500 event.

It’s only February, but Tauson has already reached as many WTA semifinals in the first two months of 2025 -- as she had previously in her career.

Her 7-6 (4), 6-4 victory over Linda Noskova was a study in patience. She won only three more points overall, but picked her spots nicely. Tauson had nine aces -- and, with 136, the most winners so far in Dubai -- but it was an artful dropshot that carried her to a critical second-set break.

Tiebreaks are where these professionals make their money, and Tauson has won four in four matches -- and a tour-high seven so far this year. 

Credit to Tauson for backing up her win over Sabalenka with such a convincing effort over Noskova.

“I had a great match today,” she texted a friend after beating Sabalenka, “I’m for sure going to play [poorly] tomorrow.”

Tauson smiled as she related the story.

“But I didn’t,” she said. “I'm really happy about that. I was aware it was going to be a tougher match. The level I had yesterday is a level you hit maybe five or six times a year. So I was sure it wasn’t going to be the same and I was really prepared for that.”

The case for Muchova

Few players can match Muchova’s fine sense of urgency when the matches matter most.

Her 6-2, 7-5 quarterfinal win over Sorana Cirstea underlined that quality -- it was her ninth consecutive win in a WTA Tour quarterfinal. It’s worth noting that this is her third WTA 1000 semifinal and that she won the other two, over Sabalenka two years ago in Cincinnati and last fall against Zheng Qinwen in Beijing.

Muchova came into this event with a fairly pedestrian 5-4 record, but upon further review that number is deceptive.

She split four matches to open the season at the United Cup, but the losses were to No. 2 Swiatek and No. 3 Gauff -- one of the wins came against No. 4 Jasmine Paolini. The second-round loss at the Australian Open (in three sets) was to four-time Grand Slam singles champion Naomi Osaka. The most recent defeat came in the Linz semifinals to Ekaterina Alexandrova, the eventual champion.

The No. 17-ranked Muchova has been a perfect 4-0 in Dubai, with previous wins over qualifier Suzan Lamens, Emma Raducanu and McCartney Kessler. This quarterfinal win was particularly pungent because Cirstea had already taken out Top 10 seeds Emma Navarro and Daria Kasatkina.

Muchova wasn’t at her best against Cirstea -- she had 31 unforced errors and lost all three break points against her -- but she found a way. She and Tauson have never played.

“She’s smashing it, she’s playing really fast,” Muchova said of Tauson. “It’s going to be a really tough match.”