The road ahead: Swiatek, Sabalenka battle for No.1, Zheng seeks redemption

While you’re exhaling from that frenetic opening month of action Down Under, here’s a public service announcement/friendly reminder: Brace yourself for February, coming in hot and heavy.

The Hologic WTA Tour features two 500 events, in Linz and Abu Dhabi, and two 250s, in Singapore and Cluj-Napoca -- leading up to the anticipated 1000 tournaments in Doha and Dubai, where Australian Open finalists Madison Keys and Aryna Sabalenka will feature prominently. Anna Kalinskaya, who had to withdraw from the Australian Open due to illness, is the Singapore Tennis Open top seed, while three Top 10 players -- Elena Rybakina, Emma Navarro and Paula Badosa -- headline a terrific field in Abu Dhabi.

Karolina Muchova, the 2023 Roland Garros finalist, made an impressive comeback from wrist surgery in the second half of 2024. She’s the top seed in Linz, which starts Monday, and will be joined by Australian Open quarterfinalist Elina Svitolina.

Here are five breaking storylines to savor:

The ongoing race for No.1

If Iga Swiatek had converted that match point against Keys in the Australian Open semifinals, she would have played Sabalenka in the final, with the winner’s share of $3.5 million and the PIF WTA No.1 ranking on the line.

But it didn’t happen and Sabalenka continues in the top spot. For the moment.

Sabalenka, who didn’t defend all of her 2,000 points, lost 700 and now has 8,956. Swiatek’s trip to the semifinals, three rounds further than last year, gave her a net of plus-650, for a current total of 8,770. So that’s a narrow 186-point margin.

This is of imminent interest because Swiatek will be going for her fourth consecutive title at the Doha Qatar TotalEnergies Open 2025. The past three years, she’s defeated Anett Kontaveit, Jessica Pegula and Elena Rybakina in the finals.

It’s worth noting that Sabalenka was the 2020 champion in Doha but hasn’t played the past two years. Swiatek beat her in the quarterfinals in 2022 on the way to that first title.

To be continued …

Litmus test

This is a terrific opportunity for three former Grand Slam champions to take the measure of where their game is.

Naomi Osaka, the four-time major champion who had a middling 2024 season after returning from childbirth, has looked sharp this year with one exception -- an unhappy abdominal muscle that caused her to retire from the Auckland final and, later, the third round in Melbourne.

Emma Raducanu posted impressive wins over Ekaterina Alexandrova and Amanda Anisimova in the season’s first Grand Slam but managed only one game against Swiatek. The surprise 2021 US Open champion will capture a lot of attention if she can regain that kind of form.

Barbora Krejcikova, last year’s surprise Wimbledon champion, is ranked No.14 in the world, but she’s yet to play a match this year because of a back injury sustained late in the 2024 season.

What to expect from Rybakina?

She’s been an enigma in recent years, winning the 2022 Wimbledon title and a pair of WTA 1000s in 2023 -- but challenged by injury and illness in 2024.

Rybakina has talked about maintaining more consistency and playing more tournaments but was troubled by a back injury in the third round of the Australiana and lost to Keys in the fourth.

That said, Rybakina has a good history in the Middle East. She was a finalist five years ago in Dubai and again last year in Doha, as well as the champion in Abu Dhabi. In fact, she won 10 of 11 matches in the Middle East last year before withdrawing from the Dubai quarterfinals with a gastrointestinal illness.

Continuing momentum?

No.9-ranked Emma Navarro won four consecutive three-set matches to advance to her second straight major quarterfinal before losing to Swiatek.

No.10 Paula Badosa reached her very first Grand Slam semifinal before running into her best friend, Sabalenka.

No.7 Keys got to her second major final -- more than seven years after the first -- and took home her first Grand Slam title.

None of them have been remarkable in the Middle East 1000s. Navarro was 3-2 in her first swing, Badosa is 2-6, while Keys is 6-5 -- after reaching the quarterfinals in 2023 Dubai.

Who will come out of the pack?

… and emerge like Jasmine Paolini? 

The diminutive Italian came into last year’s Dubai tournament ranked No.26 -- and proceeded to produce the best tennis of her career. She won the title, then kept it going, reaching the finals at Roland Garros and Wimbledon before finishing the year at No.4.

This year, there are a number of higher-profile players looking for that kind of spark after disappointing results in Melbourne:

Zheng Qinwen lost a second-round match to Laura Siegemund, Coco Gauff fell in the quarters to Badosa, Jessica Pegula was a third-round victim of Olga Danilovic, Danielle Collins lost to Keys in the third round, Ons Jabeur was defeated in the third round by Navarro and Marta Kostyuk fell to Badosa at the same stage.