The case for Sabalenka and Keys: The X-factors in the Australian Open final

Legacies are in play here.

Over the course of two hours or so in Saturday’s Australian Open final (7:30 p.m. local time, 3:30 a.m. ET), either Aryna Sabalenka or Madison Keys will realize the greatest achievement of her career.

The No.1 PIF WTA Ranking secure for the moment, Sabalenka seeks a third consecutive title at the Australian Open, the fourth major championship in her last eight.

For Keys, who has played professional tennis for more than half her life, it’s an opportunity to alter a career narrative. This is her second major final, more than seven years after the first -- the longest such gap of the Open Era. Keys says she’s thought about that 2017 US Open final, a loss to fellow American Sloane Stephens, “endlessly for the past eight years.”

To get here, Sabalenka defeated good friend Paula Badosa 6-4, 6-2. Later, the No.19-seeded Keys was a dramatic 5-7, 6-1, 7-6 [10-8] winner over No.2 Iga Swiatek.

Keys, who turns 30 next month, could become the first woman in 19 years to defeat No.1 and No.2 in the last two matches of a Grand Slam. Maria Sharapova upset Amelie Mauresmo and Justine Henin at the 2006 US Open.

The two have won a collective 24 of 25 matches to start the year.

Sabalenka was the victor in four of their five previous meetings, but one of those losses is a tantalizing asterisk. Keys won the first set of their semifinal at the 2023 US Open by the score of 6-0 -- only to lose two heartbreaking tiebreaks.

And now, it’s almost here. WTAtennis.com writers Greg Garber and Courtney Nguyen make the case for the two finalists:

Advantage, Sabalenka

Badosa was up 2-0, 40-love in the semifinal and Sabalenka came back to win 12 of the last 16 games.

“If she plays like this,” Badosa told reporters later, “we can already give her the trophy.”

For nearly three years now, Sabalenka has been making an emphatic case for herself. She’s won 20 straight matches in Melbourne and is on the cusp of a three-peat and a significant chunk of history. She’d be only the fourth woman this century to win three consecutive titles at a Grand Slam -- and the first Down Under.

Her first major as the No.1 seed has gone exceedingly well. She’s dropped only one set and looked, well, invincible.

“I think what’s really impressive is her mentality,” Keys said. “She plays such fearless tennis. She has the ability to play so well that way. I think it’s very unique.

“I think not only is that impressive on her side, but I think it puts a little bit more pressure on her opponents where you know you’re always going to have to try to win the point because she’s never going to just play passive and give you an easy point.”

Sabalenka’s success at the Australian Open is a perfect storm of athleticism, that now nearly unshakable confidence -- and a fondness for the fast courts and friendly crowds. She’s the first woman to reach three consecutive finals here since Serena Williams (2015-17). A win over Keys would give her 29 match-wins, one more than she’s achieved at the US Open.

“Last year,” she said, “I thought, `OK, I feel like home, I feel so good here, I feel all the support.’ This year I feel even more. I feel like I’m coming home to my home Slam.”

I know everything. I know where to warm up so it’s not that crowded. I go there, and I feel like people screaming my name. I have goosebumps every time they scream, like, `Let’s go Aryna.’ It’s incredible to feel that support here.”

Courtney, one last statistic that underlines what Keys is up against: The World No.1 has played 18 Grand Slam finals against players outside the Top 10. Sixteen times No.1 was the winner. Hard to argue with that.

Case closed. -- Greg Garber

Advantage, Keys

Whatever you do, Frances Tiafoe, do not text Madison Keys. Nearing on 30 years old, Keys is into her second Grand Slam final by knocking off three Top 10 seeds to extend her career-best win streak to 11 wins. 

So I say again, Frances, put down your phone.

"We have this kind of joke where in the past he wouldn't say anything pre-tournament or anything," Keys said, "and then he would text me in the quarters or the semis or something, and I would lose the next round.

"So we have this new rule. Like I saw him a few days ago, and I said, Don't text me, I don't want to hear from you at all, just leave me alone and we'll talk after the tournament."

Keys is the feel-good story of the Australian Open, a vibe that stems from the age-old story of the written-off grizzled veteran proving that, as her husband and coach Bjorn Fratangelo described, she "still has juice in the lemon." 

"I don't know if when I started I thought I'd be almost 30 and still playing at the level that I'm playing and arguably playing maybe even better than I have ever really played," Keys said. 

"It's something that I'm definitely not taking for granted and kind of just trying to roll with, and just show some of these young ones that they've got many, many, many years left."

The difference is, these "young ones" do not have the preternatural ball-striking ability that lives in Keys' right arm. Sabalenka is one of the most powerful baseliners on the Hologic WTA Tour, but even she concedes that playing Keys can make her feel like a featherweight. 

This year, Keys has built a tour-best 13-1 record with a new racquet in hand, switching away from her trusty Wilson frame for a Yonex. It was an offseason change made to modernize her equipment and give her more margin without sacrificing an ounce of power. She's also -- somehow -- become even more aggressive. Keys is doing everything she used to do, the difference is her error count has dropped. 

"I think she always was risking," Swiatek said after her loss. "But this time she played everything in."

That's what Sabalenka will be facing down on Saturday, a calmer, more mature, bigger-hitting Keys who will be playing with house money. She will return to the PIF WTA Tour Top 10 on Monday and has shown with wins over Swiatek, Elena Rybakina and Jessica Pegula over the past three weeks that she is a force once again. 

Which means when it comes to the nerves on Saturday, Keys won't be playing like a woman who thinks this is her last chance at Grand Slam glory. That may have been the case nine years ago at the US Open when she was heavily favored. But this is a freer, happier and settled Madison Keys. And that's the version that is built to pull off yet another seismic upset. -- Courtney Nguyen