Two-time defending champion Aryna Sabalenka survived a stern challenge from No.27 seed Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova to reach her third consecutive Australian Open semifinal, twice coming from a break down in the decider to advance 6-2, 2-6, 6-3 in 1 hour and 53 minutes. The middle set was the first Sabalenka had dropped in Melbourne since the 2023 final.

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Sabalenka becomes the first player since Maria Sharapova to reach 10 Grand Slam semifinals in her career. Sharapova hit the double-digit mark at the 2008 Australian Open, which would be the third of her five major titles. 

Among players born after Sharapova, Sabalenka had previously been tied with Victoria Azarenka and Simona Halep on nine semifinals, one ahead of Angelique Kerber on eight, and two ahead of Caroline Wozniacki and Petra Kvitova on seven. Madison Keys and Iga Swiatek have each made six to date, and both could make their seventh this week.

Pavlyuchenkova had led the head-to-head series against Sabalenka coming into this match 2-1, including their most recent encounter in the third round of Roland Garros 2021. At that point, Sabalenka had yet to make a major semifinal despite being seeded No.3, and Pavlyuchenkova went on to reach her first Grand Slam final. Since then, Sabalenka has only fallen before the last four of a major three times: at the Australian Open 2022, and Roland Garros 2022 and 2024.

Seesawing momentum shifts: After racing through a one-sided first set in just 31 minutes, there was little indication that the contest would go down to the wire. Sabalenka had not faced a break point, and conceded just three points behind her first serve while converting two of her three opportunities on Pavlyuchenkova's delivery.

But Pavlyuchenkova did not back down. The 33-year-old was bidding for her 39th career Top 10 win, and second over a reigning World No.1 (following her defeat of Angelique Kerber in the 2017 Monterrey final). In a spectacular second set, she held her ground on the baseline and went toe-to-toe with Sabalenka, tallying 10 winners to just four unforced errors. A series of breathtaking forehand winners enabled Pavlyuchenkova to go up a double break, before Sabalenka responded with a delightful sliced winner to get one of the breaks back.

However, Pavlyuchenkova pulled off one of the best shots of the match with an inside-out angled drop volley, reflexed from below her waist, to move back out to 5-2, serving out the set a game later.

The decider opened with four consecutive breaks of serve as both players struggled with their deliveries in the wind, but settled thereafter with three straightforward holds. But serving with a point to level at 4-4, Pavlyuchenkova's forehand let her down with two cheap errors into the net. A sprayed backhand long, and Sabalenka found herself up 5-3 and serving for the match. She made no mistake, slamming down a service winner to convert her first match point.

Sabalenka will face first-time major semifinalist and No.11 seed Paula Badosa as she bids to reach a fifth Grand Slam final. She leads the head-to-head with Badosa 5-2, including the last five meetings in a row. Sabalenka has not lost to Badosa since the 2021 WTA Finals Guadalajara.

In Sabalenka's words: "I mean, I wasn't [keeping my cool]," Sabalenka told press afterward. "I was all over the place. I'm really glad that at some point I was able to put myself back together, and I was able to, you know, just get back to the match. I was able to keep fighting, keep trying, and I was able to turn around this match. It was really difficult one.

"I was just trying to figure out how to play in these conditions. I was struggling a lot with finding my rhythm, finding the solution in these conditions. It's not about being scared. It's about finding the way out. I was struggling not in the beginning, actually. In the second set I was struggling with finding the way, but then I found one way.

"Praying. I was just praying. No. I think the main solution was just to stay low and just try to put an extra ball back on that side and stay focused and play with the discipline."