Making the case for the Wuhan semifinalists: Advantage Sabalenka or Gauff?

Saturday features two blockbuster semifinal matches at the Dongfeng Voyah · Wuhan Open:

• No.1 seed Aryna Sabalenka versus No.4 Coco Gauff (4:30 p.m. local time)
• An all-Chinese matchup between No.5 Zheng Qinwen and Wang Xinyu (not before 7 p.m.)

This will be the eighth meeting between Sabalenka and Gauff, with the 20-year-old American enjoying the slimmest of margins, 4-3. Look no further than the past two to understand the elite level this confrontation has become. In this year’s Australian Open semifinal, Sabalenka won 7-6 (2), 6-4 -- and went on to win the title. In last year’s US Open final, Gauff came back from a set down to win the title.

Wuhan:  Scores | Schedule | Draws

Surprisingly, the two Chinese players have never played a Hologic WTA Tour match. Zheng and Wang are only the third pair of compatriots players to meet in a WTA 1000 semifinal on home soil, following Serena and Venus Williams (Miami 2009), and Madison Keys and Sofia Kenin (Cincinnati 2019).

The winner of this match will be the first Chinese player to make the final in a WTA 1000 event in China. Either way, this one feels like destiny.

We make the case for each of the semifinalists:

No.1 Aryna Sabalenka vs. No.4 Coco Gauff

The case for Sabalenka

There’s something about Wuhan.

Sabalenka has won all of the 15 matches she’s played in this city of 11 million.

She’s the 2018 and 2019 champion and, after the tournament’s five-year-hiatus, Sabalenka is looking for a three-peat. Only Serena Williams in Rome (21), Miami (20) and Madrid (19) has won more consecutive matches in a single city hosting a WTA 1000 event than Sabalenka in Wuhan since the format’s introduction in 2009.

After two challenging matches, Sabalenka found her rhythm in a 6-2, 6-2 quarterfinal win over Magdalena Frech. She stroked 42 winners.

The key against Gauff, Sabalenka stressed, is pressure and she can achieve that by moving forward.

“Focus on my footwork, go to the net, finish the point over there,” Sabalenka said. “Yeah, on this slow surface, you have to go there. You have to be brave enough and finish the point there. I think that’s the main plan.

“It worked really well in our last meeting, so I'll just stick to the plan.”

Sabalenka has amassed a terrific 43-10 record in China (81.1 percent), the best of any player this century with 20 matches or more. She’s will pass Iga Swiatek for No.1 in the PIF Race to the WTA Finals after Wuhan and is intent on passing her in the overall rankings at the end of the season.

“If I'll be able to keep improving myself, keep getting better and keep pushing myself to the limits,” she said, “I know that I can achieve this goal.”

The case for Gauff

Gauff proponents might make the argument that this case is already closed.

First, there’s that 4-3 head-to-head advantage -- and Gauff is six years younger.

Second, going back to her title in Beijing, she’s won nine straight matches, all in China. And Gauff is 13-for-14 in this country for her career. That works out to a spiffy 92.9 percent.

The funny thing? Gauff won 10 straight matches earlier this year between Auckland and the Australian Open. She’s the youngest player since Sabalenka in 2018 to reach the Wuhan semifinals.

Gauff was a tidy 6-0, 6-4 winner over Magda Linette in the quarterfinals and has dropped only 12 games in six sets. You can do the math.

At her postmatch press conference, there wasn’t a single question about her win or the upcoming, anticipated match against Sabalenka. It was dominated by a thoughtful discussion of Rafael Nadal’s imminent retirement -- and Hainanese Chinese food. On Thursday, she and her team visited the mall in Joy City.

Gauff went for the garlic chicken with rice, chicken wings and rose long tea. The chicken was spicy.

“I did finish it, but it took me a couple rounds of water,” Gauff said. “We had traditional Chinese at the site, but I think it’s much different when you go to a restaurant and eat it. Yeah, that was one thing we wanted to check off of our list and we did that.”

Beijing, check.

Wuhan … if she wins two more matches, she can check that one off, too.

No.5 Zheng Qinwen vs. Wang Xinyu

The case for Zheng

Zheng was a 6-2, 3-6, 6-3 winner over No.3 seed Jasmine Paolini, beating her for the third time in three tries. It was a milestone, the 22-year-old’s 100^th match-win.

Here’s the best evidence that Zheng has the upper hand: No WTA Tour player has more wins (23) since Wimbledon. That run includes the Olympic gold medal, the quarterfinals at the US Open and the semifinals recently in Beijing.

And if it goes to three sets, Zheng has been there and done that; she’s an unnerving 18-3 this year in matches that go the distance, the best record of any woman with more than five.

Zheng had 10 aces against Paolini to lift her season’s total to 247, surpassing Sabalenka and bearing down on Ekaterina Alexandrova (258) and Elena Rybakina (256). This was the 10^th match Zheng hit double-digit aces, matching Rybakina.

As with Wang, this is essentially a home game for Zheng. Her parents, aunt and uncle, as well as friends are in Wuhan, cheering for her. The real pressure? Finding them all tickets.

“I had no idea how to get tickets for them,” Zheng said. “I referred them to my manager.”

If Zheng wins this one, with her soaring Olympic gold-medal status in China, Sunday’s final will be one hot ticket.

The case for Wang

Her epic 4-6, 7-5, 7-6 (6) epic victory over Ekaterina Alexandrova required 2 hours and 50 minutes.

“It was a rollercoaster tiebreak,” Wang said later. “It was just down to the last two points.”

How close was it? Wang won 116 points, Alexandrova 115.

The 23-year-old also saved two match points.

“I saw the photographers were running to [Alexandrova’s] side,” Wang said. “They wanted to capture the end of the match. Those two points were served by me. High-quality, good serves. Those were very critical points.”

Indeed they were. After that crucible of fire, she’s playing in the semifinals with house money. Wang, No.51, is the second-lowest ranked player to reach the Wuhan semifinals. This is the first time in a WTA 1000 event she’s come back twice from a set down to win.

Wang has already recorded some impressive doubles results, winning the title in Berlin this year with Zheng Saisai, but this is new ground in singles.

“In recent weeks on hard courts, I was losing matches,” Wang said. “I wasn’t at a level where I felt 100 percent confident. I might be able to make a breakthrough under these circumstances when I wasn’t really expecting it.”

Wang has the unique chops to do this. She leads all players in Wuhan with 63 forehand winners and, at the same time, has won 50 points at net, two fewer than event leader Leylah Fernandez.