US Open quarterfinal preview: Swiatek and Pegula renew rivalry

NEW YORK -- The US Open quarterfinals are set, and if you've been paying attention over the past few weeks, the names in the final eight will not surprise you. 

US Open: Scores | Draw | Order of play

World No.1 Iga Swiatek stormed into her second US Open and first since her title run in 2022 by defeating 16th-seed Liudmila Samsonova 6-4, 6-1 in the Round of 16 on Monday night. Swiatek is one of three players in the top half of the draw to move through without losing a set, and she will face a red-hot No.6 Jessica Pegula on Wednesday. 

The other quarterfinal in the top half will feature the swashbuckling game of last year's semifinalist, Karolina Muchova, who will take on Cleveland finalist Beatriz Haddad Maia. The Brazilian advanced to her first US Open quarterfinal after holding off former No.1 Caroline Wozniacki on Monday. 

The bottom half of the draw features a rematch of the Australian Open final between World No.2 Aryna Sabalenka and No.7 Zheng Qinwen, who captured gold at the Paris 2024 Olympics last month. It's the second straight big rematch for Zheng, who held off Donna Vekic in a repeat of the Olympic final. 

Rounding out the high-stakes showdowns are two New York-born baseliners who have powered their way to a first US Open quarterfinal. Washington D.C. champion Paula Badosa will look to ride her summer surge to a first major semifinal when she takes on 13th-seed Emma Navarro.

Here's how the matches are shaping up:

Top Half

[1] Iga Swiatek vs. [6] Jessica Pegula (Wednesday, Sept. 4)

Head-to-head: Swiatek leads 6-3

Swiatek has quietly gone about her business through her four wins. She has not faced a break point in three consecutive matches, going unbroken in her wins over Ena Shibahara, Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova and Samonsova. She leads the remaining quarterfinalists in service games won this tournament, 34 of 36 (94 percent). And she's faced just four break points in the tournament. Of the remaining players, the next fewest break points faced is 14 by Muchova.  

This will be the 10th career meeting between these two stalwarts, and though Swiatek leads 6-3, she has nothing but the utmost respect for how difficult Pegula make things for her. This is a rematch of the WTA Finals Championship match last fall, which was the last time the two played. Swiatek dropped just one game in Cancun, exacting revenge for a big win for Pegula in the semifinals of Montreal earlier that summer.

"Against Jessie, it's never easy," Swiatek said. "It's going to be, for sure, a tough one, because she plays a really flat ball with no spin. You have to really work low on your legs.

"For sure she's in a good rhythm right now, and she won so many matches the past weeks, that for sure it's going to be a challenge."

Pegula's three wins have all come on hard court, and each win catapulted Pegula to the title. The first came at 2019 Washington, which Pegula won in three sets and went on to win her first Hologic WTA Tour title. The second, came at the 2023 United Cup, where Pegula overpowered Swiatek to snap a four-match losing streak to the Pole. The last came in Montreal last year. 

This summer, Pegula has once again proven just how much of a menace she can be on hard courts, particularly ones of the North American variety. She has now won 13 of her 14 hard-court matches this summer, a stretch that included the title in Toronto and the final in Cincinnati. 

Whatever happens on Wednesday, here's hoping the DJ doesn't interject: 

[22] Beatriz Haddad Maia vs. Karolina Muchova (Wednesday, Sept. 4)

Head-to-head: Muchova leads 3-0

Few players on tour can elicit the oohs and ahhs among press row like Muchova when she is in full flight, and that's precisely how the Czech has been playing in New York. The former World No.8 has not lost a set so far, highlighted by her 6-3, 7-6(5) win over former No.1 Naomi Osaka in the second round and a 6-3, 6-3 rout against No.5 Jasmine Paolini in the previous round. 

Now a win away from booking her return to the semifinals, where she lost to Coco Gauff last year, Muchova is enjoying her game as much as the fans.

"I just like to change it up," Muchova said. "I like to do what I do, basically going to the net and actually play a game, have more fun, not just grind back and play forehands/backhands.

"It's how I see the game. It's how I like to play it. It's the things that I like to as well improve in practices and then bring it on the court."

Muchova is a perfect 3-0 against Haddad Maia, who is into her first major quarterfinal since making the 2023 Roland Garros semifinals. 

"The semifinal in the French Open helps to believe, to know that, okay, I already passed through this moment," Haddad Maia said. "Is not easy for the tennis players. We know the pressure we feel every single match. Doesn't matter if it's quarterfinals or first round.

"I think not only Roland Garros semifinals but also the other matches that I had in Grand Slams, especially tough losses, matches that I lost. I felt a lot of pain right after, and I think I learned a lot from these moments. I feel that I have this different experience, and I feel ready for the next quarterfinal."

Bottom Half

[2] Aryna Sabalenka vs. [7] Zheng Qinwen (Tuesday, 7 p.m. ET)

Head-to-head: Sabalenka leads 2-0

Can Zheng ride her momentum to notch her first win in three tries over Sabalenka? It has been a tough matchup for the 21-year-old from China, who has single-handedly brought tennis back into the national conversation back home at a level unseen since Li Na. 

Zheng has quieted any fears of a letdown after her emotional run to the gold medal in Paris last month. She has had to battle her way back to the quarterfinals, where Sabalenka stopped her 12 months ago. Three of Zheng's four matches have gone three sets, and twice she had to come from a set down. 

Zheng's serve has been the bedrock of her run in New York. Through four matches she clocked 49 aces, nearly double on the next best on the list, Donna Vekic, who she defeated in the fourth round. When the first serve lands, she's nearly unbreakable. She's won 80% of the points when it does. 

Where it can all go wrong for Zheng is precisely where Sabalenka has dictated in their past matchups: the second serve. Zheng has won just 45 percent when she has to play through the second serve. Few players on tour have as devastating a second-serve return as No.2 Sabalenka, who has won 60 percent of her second-serve return points. 

Fresh off her dominant title run at Cincinnati two weeks ago, where she beat Swiatek and Pegula to win her first title since the Australian Open, Sabalenka has looked cool, calm and focused en route to her fourth straight US Open quarterfinal. No one has strung together that many since Serena Williams, and her relaxed and confident demeanor bodes well for her as she tries to become the first woman since Angelique Kerber in 2016 to sweep both hard-court majors in a single season.

[13] Emma Navarro vs. [26] Paula Badosa (Tuesday, noon ET)

Head-to-head: Badosa leads 1-0

Badosa was born in Manhattan, but the 26-year-old Spaniard knows she's on foreign soil when she takes on Charleston's Navarro. Neither woman had much success at the US Open before this year -- they were a combined 2-6 at the event. But there were signs of something special on the horizon for both players. 

Badosa's season gained traction on the clay after successful treatments on her chronic back injury allowed her to start training and playing with minimal pain. Ranked World No.2 just over two years ago, Badosa confirmed her resurgence with a title run at Washington D.C. last month. She's parlayed that success into her first US Open quarterfinal and first major quarterfinal since 2021 Roland Garros. 

"It's going to be my first time on Ashe, so I never played there," Badosa said. "It's going to be my first time in a [US Open] quarterfinals also, so it's an experience for me.

"I like these kind of challenges. I was born to play on big stages, and I'm really looking forward for that."

As for Navarro, after her three-set win over defending champion Coco Gauff in the fourth round, the 23-year-old finds herself in her second consecutive major quarterfinal and knocking on the door of a Top 10 debut. It has been a remarkably steady rise for the former University of Virginia standout, who began the 2022 season ranked outside the Top 100. 

After admitting to feeling some level of impostor syndrome after making her Top 20 debut earlier in the spring, Navarro says she finally feels like she belongs on the sport's biggest stages. 

"I think in the past I've seen choices on court, like taking the ball on the rise or moving forward to hit a forehand as opposed to moving back, stuff like that," Navarro said. "Those have been choices in the past. Now I see those types of situations as less of a choice and more of, like, I have to take this on in this way. Partially because the players I'm playing against, they'll shut it down if I don't make that more confident, aggressive choice. And, also, just because I think I have more belief in myself to be able to actually execute those types of shots.

"Then, just the mental side of it. I think I believe that I can play tennis with the best players in the world. I deserve to be on this stage and, yeah, I belong in these rounds of Grand Slams and, yeah, I can make deep runs."

The winner will advance to her first Grand Slam semifinal.