Advantage Sabalenka or Pegula? Making the case for the Cincinnati finalists

CINCINNATI -- Who has the edge when No.3 Aryna Sabalenka takes on No.6 Jessica Pegula for the Cincinnati Open title on Monday? 

Cincinnati: Scores | Draws | Order of Play

On one side you have Sabalenka, who ended her three-match losing streak to No.1 Iga Swiatek in the semifinals with a dominant display of aggressive tennis. Sabalenka is looking to end a six-month title drought and pick up her first hard-court WTA 1000 title since 2020 Doha. 

Across the net, Pegula is looking to win her second WTA 1000 title seven days after winning her last. The 30-year-old American is riding a nine-match win streak after picking up her second title of the year last week at the National Bank Open. Pegula is a win away from becoming the first woman in over 50 years to sweep Canada and Cincinnati in the same season. The only other woman to do it was Evonne Goolagong Cawley in 1973. 

WTA writers Courtney Nguyen and Jason Juzwiak make the case for the finalists:

Advantage, Sabalenka

Sabalenka has not lost a set all week in Cincinnati, a tournament that has quietly become her strongest on the calendar. She comes into Monday's final, her third WTA 1000 final of the season, off a confidence-boosting straight-set win over No.1 Iga Swiatek. It was the first time Sabalenka beat Swiatek in straight sets and it's no surprise it came on a fast hard court. 

Going into the match, Swiatek led the Hologic WTA Tour in both service and return games won, a remarkable feat. But Sabalenka's aggressive serve and return mitigated that stat for a day. She broke Swiatek five times and the Pole managed to win just six of 30 points behind her second serve. In fact, Sabalenka has proven hard to break regardless of opponent this week. She's won 92.1 percent of her service games in Cincinnati, up from her season average of 79 percent. 

In short, Sabalenka is fully fit after her efficient work through the draw and brimming with confidence as she looks to win her first title since the Australian Open.

Pegula has grabbed the headlines -- and rightfully so -- for her quick rebound from the back injury that forced her out of the European clay season. But Sabalenka has quietly engineered her own bounce-back this summer. She missed Wimbledon due to a rotator cuff injury in her shoulder and you could see the rust in her last two tournaments in Washington D.C. and Toronto, where she lost to Marie Bouzkova and Amanda Anisimova, respectively. 

"For the first time, I experienced something like fear, having a fear of getting injured again," Sabalenka said. "That was kind of tricky in those two tournaments. I was over-protecting my shoulder. I didn't want to straighten my arm that far.

"It was tricky. I was kind of fighting with my head."

Head to Head

- Insights from

- Insights from

-

aryna sabalenka

• Sorry, we couldn't find any players that match your search.

BLR

More Head to Head

75% Win 6

- Matches Played

25% Win 2

-

jessica pegula

• Sorry, we couldn't find any players that match your search.

USA

Sabalenka stayed patient and, with every match, the fear subsided. Now she can say she's playing freely and no longer thinking about the shoulder. That showed against Swiatek and there's no reason to think she'll come with anything less against Pegula, against whom she's 4-2.

It's wild to think that it's been over four years since Sabalenka, a two-time champion at the Australian Open, has lifted the trophy at a hard-court WTA 1000. That drought ends on Monday. -- Courtney Nguyen

Advantage, Pegula

Only three American women in the Open Era have made the finals in Canada and Cincinnati in the same calendar year: Rosie Casals in 1970, Serena Williams in 2013, and, now, Jessica Pegula. 
 
"What a trio right there, wow," Pegula said on court after a hard-fought semifinal win over Paula Badosa. "I did not think I would be in a group with those names."

With Pegula’s form over the past two weeks, it's not a surprise she has joined that club. Last week's Toronto champion Pegula is on a nine-match winning streak, and the American could keep the run rolling by ousting Sabalenka with the adaptability she has exhibited during the month.
 
In the Toronto final against Amanda Anisimova -- a big-hitting player who has often outdueled Sabalenka -- Pegula heavily relied on her footspeed to extend rallies before firing the kill shot.
 
And after a grueling three-hour victory against Leylah Fernandez in the Cincinnati quarterfinals, Pegula banked on deep, sturdy returns to put Badosa on the back foot on Sunday, trying to get as far ahead of the Spaniard on the scoreboard as quickly as possible. 
 
When Badosa came out with big serves after a rain delay to level the match at one set apiece, Pegula relied on her preternatural composure to, literally and figuratively, weather the storm.
 
“It's been nice to also see my mental toughness over the span of a lot of matches,” Pegula said in her post-match press conference. “Being able to draw it out over multiple weeks has been really a cool thing that I can say that I've been able to do, and I think also gives me extra confidence.”

 
Pegula is still the underdog on Monday. Compared to Sabalenka, she's lower-ranked, has won fewer titles, and is not a Grand Slam champion. Sabalenka even leads the head-to-head 4-2. However, Pegula won in their first meeting (at this tournament, albeit when it was held in New York City in 2020) and their last (a straight-sets romp at last year's WTA Finals).
 
Pegula knows how to stay composed and adjust to the moment. If she can keep things varied and destabilize the Sabalenka power game, she could become the first woman to pull off the Canada-Cincinnati double since Australia's Evonne Goolagong Cawley in 1973. And, as usual, she is nothing if not prepared.
 
“I think with Aryna, it's going to be a very similar kind of game style [as Badosa],” Pegula said. “That's nice, at least I'll be ready for it, because I don't think someone could hit as hard as Paula was hitting today. So I'll kind of take what I could from this match and try to use that going into tomorrow.” -- Jason Juzwiak