Zheng Qinwen of China meets Croatia’s Donna Vekic in Saturday’s gold-medal singles match at Roland Garros. Both have the opportunity to score some historic firsts for their countries.

Let that sink in for a moment: Zheng versus Vekic.

Yes, World No.1 Iga Swiatek fell short, losing to Zheng in the semifinals. No.2 Coco Gauff was shown to the exit by Vekic. In fact, Zheng is the only Top 10 player left standing.

Did anyone see that coming? Students of history, perhaps. For the Olympics continues to produce surprising tennis results.

Unseeded Monica Puig won Puerto Rico’s first Olympic gold medal in any sport with a victory at the 2016 Games in Rio de Janeiro. Three years ago in Tokyo, No.9 seed Belinda Bencic defeated Marketa Vondrousova in the gold-medal match.

What’s going on here?

Martina Navratilova, the 18-time Grand Slam singles champion, believes there are myriad reasons for the unpredictability of the Olympics. She checked in earlier this week via What’sApp from a summer vacation in the Czech Republic, sitting some 200 yards from the tennis courts she played on growing up.

“The Olympics are an anomaly,” she said, getting to the crux of the situation. “Everything about it is extra, added on. It’s really a fifth major every four years -- which complicates things for players.”

The favorites, Navratilova said, face two obstacles. Because they tend to go deeper into draws -- most recently at Roland Garros and Wimbledon -- they are generally feeling more physical fatigue than lower-ranked players. The second is the pressure of expectation on elite players -- exacerbated by the few career opportunities they will have to win at the Olympics.

“It’s a combination of the calendar and all that pressure,” Navratilova said. “I was watching the end of the Krejcikova [semifinal] match and she looked exhausted. When you’re that tired, you only have so much emotional energy to play for your country.”

After navigating the 64-player gauntlet, Zheng and Vekic are tired, too. But one of them will emerge Saturday with a gold medal -- the achievement of a lifetime. Courtney Nguyen and Greg Garber make the case for each.

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Advantage, Zheng

No one believes in herself at this moment in time more than the 21-year-old from China.

“I feel more than just happy -- happy isn’t enough to describe how I feel,” Zheng said in a postmatch interview. “If you ask me to play another three hours for my country, I would.

“It was an amazing match. To beat Iga is not easy.”

Especially at the place sometimes referred to as Poland Garros.

Zheng had played Swiatek six times -- and lost every single match. After winning the first set of their semifinal rather easily, Swiatek rallied to take the first four games of the second set. Most observers could be forgiven for thinking that the four-time Roland Garros champion was on her way to a fifth title there in five years. Zheng wasn’t one of them.

With remarkable strength of will, she won seven of the last eight games to record the most important win of her young career. Zheng hit six aces and broke Swiatek’s serve six times.

And so, ended Swiatek’s run of 25 straight wins in Paris and 23 consecutive clay victories this year. And that, Courtney, is why she’ll beat Vekic.

The 1-1 head-to-head is deceptive. Vekic won their first meeting, in straight sets in Courmayeur, Italy in 2021, but Zheng had just turned 19. When they played at the 2023 WTA Elite Trophy in Zhuhai, China, Zheng was a winner in three sets.

This has been a breakout season for Zheng. She reached her first Grand Slam singles final at the Australian Open and vaulted into the Top 10, where she’ll likely be a fixture for years.

Her composure and the emerging variety in her game will carry her in the final. Look at these bottom-line numbers from the semifinals: Zheng (17) had one more winner than Swiatek, but 23 fewer unforced errors, with only 13. Zheng went after Swiatek in two ways, hitting flat deep forehands and, on occasion, sending up big, looping balls over her shoulders. Her drop shots, a big factor in her quarterfinal win over Angelique Kerber, were again impeccable.

Having weathered two three-hour matches, Zheng dispatched Swiatek in less than two hours. At 21, she’s seven years younger than Vekic. And her semifinal match ended more than seven hours before Vekic’s began. Even with a day off, that's a significant edge in recovery time.

After beating Swiatek -- and saving a match point against Emma Navarro in the round of 16 -- Zheng is playing with house money. Courtney, it says here that she’s going to take it to the bank. -- Greg Garber

Advantage, Vekic

Saturday's final is going to be a gutsy, gritty battle. Both Zheng and Vekic have proven they're battle-tested. Both have been a point from exiting the tournament this week -- Zheng had to save match point again Emma Navarro in the Round of 16, Vekic against Marta Kostyuk in the quarterfinals -- and both have scored seismic straight-set upsets to earn their medals. 

Yes, Zheng's win over Swiatek was the top-line result given the the No.1 player from Poland's dominance in Paris, but let's not overlook Vekic's straight-sets win over No.2 seed Coco Gauff in the Round of 16, 7-6(7), 6-2. 

Here's why I'm backing Vekic to bring home Croatia's first singles gold medal: She's the only one who can say she's in hotter form than Zheng right now. Since the start of the grass season, Vekic has now won 13 of her past 15 matches. She made her first final of the year in Bad Homburg. Then she built on that to make her first major semifinal at Wimbledon. She narrowly lost to Jasmine Paolini, saving a slew of match points before losing 10-8 in the third-set tiebreak. 

It was a heartbreaking loss, but Vekic's bravery and composure throughout that match made everyone who has followed her career through the years sit up and take notice. Despite enduring physical pain and cramping, she kept her head up, she trudged on, point-by-point, with some incredibly brave shotmaking. 

That same grit was on display in her nearly three-hour tussle with Kostyuk in the quarterfinal. With a spot in the medal rounds on the line, she fought off the surging Ukrainian. This time she came out on the winning side of a 10-8 score in the deciding tiebreak. 

All that is to say, in the last month we have seen Vekic shed the negative, fatalistic attitude that could, at times, consume her during matches. She's been a resilient and ruthless competitor, and she's played with remarkable clarity. If she can jump on Zheng's second serves and use her variety to keep the World No.7 out of rhythm, she has a great shot at a history-making upset. -- Courtney Nguyen