PARIS -- One finalist here on Saturday is looking for her fourth Roland Garros title in five years. The other, at the age of 28, has won six matches in a tournament for the first time in her career.

“Iga Swiatek is as big a favorite as you could possibly be in a Grand Slam final,” three-time major champion Lindsay Davenport said on Tennis Channel.

The 23-year-old from Poland has won 20 consecutive matches in Paris and, with titles in Madrid and Rome, 18 straight this year.

One month ago, the Italian Jasmine Paolini wasn’t streaking at all -- she lost her first match in Rome. And while the French press has been comparing Swiatek to 14-time champion Rafael Nadal, Paolini has been fielding questions about the improbable odds of her career-best accomplishment.

“It’s a great feeling to be in a Grand Slam final,” Paolini said after defeating Mirra Andreeva. “It seems something impossible, but it’s true.”

But professional sport has a way of producing some surprising results -- that’s why they play the games.

Roland Garros: Scores | Draws

Let’s investigate the recent history of Italian women in their first (and only) Grand Slam final:

Fourteen years ago at Roland Garros, No.17 seed Francesca Schiavone, 29, stunned World No.3 Caroline Wozniacki in the quarterfinals, No.5 Elena Dementieva in the semifinals and future US Open champion Samantha Stosur in the final. 

Five years later in 2015, Flavia Pennetta was the No.26 seed at the US Open. She defeated Roberta Vinci -- a shocking winner over Serena Williams in the semifinals -- in an all-Italian final. Pennetta, 33, retired on the spot.

And now we have Paolini, another late-bloomer, on a terrific run at a major. Given the history, how can anyone tell her she has no chance?

“Of course, I was watching the other Italians make it in the finals and also won Grand Slams,” Paolini said. “But imagine that can be myself was tough. Of course, I wished, but now it’s something crazy for me.”

WTA Insider Courtney Nguyen and Greg Garber debate the merits of the two finalists:

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Advantage, Swiatek

Is there any concrete reason why Swiatek isn't the overwhelming favorite on Saturday to capture her fifth Grand Slam title, fourth Roland Garros title and third consecutive in Paris? No.

Let's start with the stats: A two-time defending champion, Swiatek is a win away from completing the "The Triple Crown" -- sweeping consecutive titles in Madrid, Rome and Paris. What does that mean? It means she's currently riding that aforementioned 20-match win streak at Roland Garros and 18-match active win streak.

Since facing down a match point against Naomi Osaka in the second round, Swiatek has not come close to losing a set. Since that match-point save, she has won 52 of 66 games. Over that span, she bounced Anastasia Potapova 6-0, 6-0 in 40 minutes, in the shortest completed match of her career.

And her last two matches? All she did was face down two Top 5 seeds who happen to be reigning Grand Slam champions and rolled. She lost a combined eight games to Wimbledon champion Marketa Vondrousova and US Open champion Coco Gauff.

Swiatek goes into Saturday with a 21-4 career record in finals. She hasn't lost one in over a year. In fact, she's won her last eight, particularly impressive given the last five were against Top 10 opponents.

After the Gauff win -- she is now 11-1 against her American rival -- Swiatek was asked to describe her comfort and confidence on clay.

Swiatek didn't know what to say. "High," she offered with a shrug. The reporters could only laugh. She hasn’t lost to a player ranked outside the Top 10 on clay in nearly two years.

Swiatek has played Paolini twice. In neither match did the Italian win more than three games. Paolini still remembers playing a 16-year-old Swiatek at an ITF 60K in Prague in 2018.

"I was like, ‘Who is this player,’" Paolini said earlier this year in Dubai. "She was hitting winners everywhere.”  

And that brings us to the narrative reasons why Swiatek is taking it on Saturday. She is an astonishing 34-2 in Paris, matching the great Chris Evert's mark through their first 36 matches here. 

At 23, Swiatek already has the French coming up with new portmanteaus to describe her dominance on Court Philippe Chatrier: "Nadaliser".

"We'll see in 14 years if the journey is similar," Swiatek said with an embarrassed smile. "I mean, that's obviously really nice for me. I would never expect anybody to compare me to Rafa because for me he's above everybody, and he's a total legend."

With a win on Saturday, Swiatek will become the first woman since Justine Henin to capture four French Open titles and she'll be the youngest player, man or woman, with five major titles. She may not be a legend yet, but her numbers are undoubtedly trending in that direction. -- Courtney Nguyen

Advantage, Paolini

I know, I know, it doesn’t look good for the under-underdog, Courtney. 

But Paolini is playing the best tennis of her life. She came into the year with a single title, Portoroz in 2021, but this year broke through big time with a win at the WTA 1000 in Dubai and is now in the final at Roland Garros. On Monday, at the very least, she’ll be No.7 in the PIF WTA Rankings. A win would push her to No.5.

I like the way she’s gone about her business. Paolini took down returning Bianca Andreescu, Elina Avanesyan and No.4 seed Elena Rybakina -- all in three sets.

In these late matches on big courts, it’s always about the pressure of the moment. Paolini acted like she had been there against Andreeva, saving all six break points against her. A month ago in Madrid, she lost to the 17-year-old in straight sets.

“Today I was so nervous,” Paolini said. “It was a different match against Mirra than against Elena. It was a really tough match mentally and physically because she’s so consistent.

“But I step on court, and I try to hit the ball, to move fast, to be in the present, to play point-by-point. Then when I break her in the first set, I started to feel better and better.”

She needs to channel that feeling early and often against Swiatek. When winning the first set this year, Paolini has yet to lose.

In this year’s big tournaments -- Grand Slams and WTA 1000s -- only five players have won more matches. Paolini’s won 22 of 32 matches already this year. It took her 41 matches to do that in 2022 and 45 in 2023.

And yes, she’s been on court longer than any woman in the field -- at 9 hours and 58 minutes -- but with a day off and the prospect of personal history, Paolini will be ready to go.

Paolini said she can’t point to a single moment when her fortunes began to change for the better.

“I think it was like a process,” she said. “I started to play better and better, to play better against also top players because before I was, like, 6-1, 6-1 or 6-2, 6-1 and no match.

“Now with more matches, let’s say, in my pocket, I feel more confidence in my game, in myself. So, I step on court believing that I can win those matches.” -- Greg Garber