Paolini stuns Rybakina at Roland Garros to reach first Grand Slam semifinal

No.12 seed Jasmine Paolini sprung an upset in a thrilling French Open quarterfinal, edging No.4 seed Elena Rybakina 6-2, 4-6, 6-4 in 2 hours and 3 minutes to reach her first Grand Slam semifinal.

As she bids to make her first Grand Slam final, Paolini will face 17-year-old Mirra Andreeva in the semifinals on Thursday.

Roland Garros: Scores | Draws

After a spectacular opening set, Paolini twice led by a break in the second set, and then twice more early in the decider before a gritty Rybakina fought back. But in a nailbiting dénouement, it was Paolini -- who was playing in her first major quarterfinal -- who held firm at the close of the biggest match of her career so far, and her Court Philippe-Chatrier debut.

The 28-year-old becomes the fourth Italian woman to reach the last four at Roland Garros in the Open Era, following 2010 champion Francesca Schiavone, 2012 finalist Sara Errani and 2022 semifinalist Martina Trevisan. Errani -- who is partnering Paolini in the doubles event, where they have reached the quarterfinals so far -- was watching her triumph from the stands.

Currently ranked No.15, Paolini is now assured of making her Top 10 debut next week. She will become the first Italian to be ranked in the Top 10 since Roberta Vinci in September 2016 and will become the fifth Italian woman overall to reach the Top 10, following Schiavone, Flavia Pennetta, Errani and Vinci.

Paolini had been nominated for Most Improved Player in the 2023 WTA Awards after breaking into the Top 30 last year, but 2024 has seen her reach an even higher level. She lifted her first WTA 1000 trophy in Dubai in February, and her overall record this season now stands at 21-10.

Though Paolini's only win in three previous encounters with Rybakina had come via retirement in Cincinnati last year, their most recent match foreshadowed Wednesday's result to an extent. In the quarterfinals of Stuttgart at the end of April, Paolini led Rybakina 2-0 in the third set, and the Kazakhstani only escaped after a tremendous 6-3, 5-7, 6-3 tussle. This time, Paolini was able to finish what she started to notch her fifth career Top 10 win, and third against a Top 5 opponent -- and the first of those to come on the major stage.

Rybakina, who has won three Hologic WTA Tour titles this year so far, falls to 0-2 in Roland Garros quarterfinals. In 2021, she lost to Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova at this stage in her major quarterfinal debut.

Twists and turns: Paolini was almost untouchable during a brilliant opening set for the underdog. She won the first 15 points in a row on serve, and only dropped one point in total behind it. She committed one unforced error in the whole set, and kept Rybakina at bay with a series of crowd-pleasing winners, including forehands on the run and wrong-footing passing shots. And the scoreline wasn't as close as it appears: Paolini held at least one break point in every Rybakina service game, and only the Kazakhstani's serve enabled her to cling on to the two games she won.

Paolini was also the first to break in the second set, for 2-1 -- at which point the dynamic shifted. At this point, she had only committed seven unforced errors to Rybakina's 30. But suddenly it was Paolini's forehand breaking down, while Rybakina began to find her groove. The former Wimbledon champion broke back with a return winner, and from there on the match was a test of nerve, with neither player quite able to pull away from the other.

Paolini broke again for 4-3 courtesy of cheap forehand errors from Rybakina, and held two points to hold for 5-3. But Rybakina responded with dominant power hitting to level the match, sealing the set with an emphatic drive volley.

After four edgy breaks in a row to start the decider, Rybakina seemed to have the edge as she began to find her groove on serve, slamming down aces and service winners to lead 4-3. But Paolini never let her intensity drop, and instead it was Rybakina who lost control of her groundstrokes in the last three games of the match. A slew of netted backhands and errant forehands raised her tally of unforced errors to 48, compared to 35 winners. Meanwhile, Paolini tallied an even 22 of each.

In Paolini's words: Afterwards, Paolini took the Chatrier crowd through the ups and downs of the match in her on-court interview.

"It was a really tough match -- I think I was a little too emotional in the first set," she said. "But then I said to myself, 'OK, it's good, she's a great champion, so it can happen, you know? Just fight, try to keep it there, try to hit every ball.' And it worked, I'm here, I won!

"[The key was] to forget what happened in the second set because it can happen. It's tennis. It's normal. I managed to come back, to stay there and stay focused. Even if I had the break two times again. But it's OK! I just accept that and fight again."

Rybakina: "My legs were not there"

Like Paolini, Rybakina was able to shrug off the loss as part and parcel of the sport.

"I'm not, of course, really happy with the performance, but it is what it is," she told press. "It's tennis. Not every day you can play good.

"She played really well. She started much better. She was moving good. I started a bit slow, and she was aggressive from the first ball. Then I was just trying to find my game [...] but in the end, it's not the greatest day in the office."

Rybakina also discussed the health issues she has been dealing with lately.

"I think in the end my legs were not there," she said. "No matter which conditions, if it's slow or fast, I should have been moving better.

"As I was saying, I was struggling a little bit with the health issues past few weeks, so I think it's just all together. But in the end no matter all these things, which were maybe happening outside of the court, I managed to get to the quarters. I think it's pretty good result. 

"I'm not going to go deep in this topic for sure, but I've been working a lot, and I think there is a lot of ups and downs. At the end of the day everybody is trying to manage as best as possible. I think I've played a lot. 

"For now it's been health with allergies, sleeping, so it's a little bit different from maybe last year when I had back problems. I heal. It's always ups and downs. It's tennis, so we just trying to find the best possible way for me to prepare and be ready for big events like Grand Slams and 1000 events."