What to expect from Naomi Osaka heading into the Australian Open

In the crucible of professional tennis -- under the oppressive weight of global scrutiny and the pressure to maintain elite results -- Naomi Osaka sometimes seemed uncomfortable.

But on Instagram, where thoughts and feelings are curated in the safety and solitude of self-expression, Osaka can approach profound.

“Where has the time gone?” she asked in a post late last year. “I look back on my life and it feels like I’m rewinding an old VHS tape, it flashes by so quickly and suddenly I’m here in the present.

“I often try to retrace my steps to figure out how did I end up here? I truly still feel like that kid playing on public courts in Queens, New York. Randomly, I wonder if I’m doing OK, is there a correct path to take in life or have I veered off onto the scenic route for a little bit?”

And that, better than anything you’ll find in mainstream media, describes Osaka’s complicated sabbatical from tennis. Here in the present, she is 26 years old. Veering off the path, included the birth of daughter Shai. When she stepped on the court in Brisbane earlier this month, Osaka had been away from the game for 15 months.

Of all the intriguing questions surrounding the upcoming Hologic WTA Tour season, the one ranked No.1 is almost certainly this: Can Osaka, only six months into motherhood, again rise to Grand Slam championship form?

“Fascinating,” said television analyst Pam Shriver.

Said Martina Navratilova, who teamed with Shriver for 20 major doubles titles: “I’m really looking forward to seeing how this all unfolds in Melbourne."

In her first match in Brisbane, Osaka defeated Tamara Korpatsch 6-3, 7-6 (9), then fell to Karolina Pliskova 3-6, 7-6 (4), 6-4. It was a taut, tight match with Pliskova winning 101 points, one more than Osaka.

“I think for me even stepping on the court is a personal win because a couple of weeks ago I was even doubting if I could play with everyone,” Osaka said afterward. So I guess these two matches that I’ve had kind of prove to me that I am doing OK, and the year is just going to get better for me.”

Tennis Channel analyst Paul Annacone graded her first two matches with a B and a C but was nonetheless impressed.

“Just get a few more good days of practice in,” he said, “and she’ll be right there.”

The thing that makes Osaka’s return particularly compelling is what has happened in her absence. Iga Swiatek has solidified her presence as the game’s best, while Aryna Sabalenka and Coco Gauff have closed the gap, fulfilling the rich legacies so many had imagined for them.

Technically, 43-year-old Venus Williams is the leader among active players with seven Grand Slam singles titles. But she played only 10 matches last year. 

Osaka re-enters the full-time fray tied with Swiatek at four majors. Swiatek won her most recent, Roland Garros, one week after turning 22. Osaka’s fourth came at the 2021 Australian Open, three months after her 23rd birthday.

For some context, consider that Hall of Famers Kim Clijsters and Arantxa Sanchez Vicario finished their careers with four.

Historically, motherhood hasn’t been a deal-breaker. In fact, Victoria Azarenka, a two-time Australian Open champion, left to have son Leo in 2016 -- and went on to reach the 2020 US Open final. Serena Williams was already carrying daughter Olympia when she won the 2017 Australian Open and, subsequently, advanced to four major finals. 

Clijsters might be the best comparison. After winning the 2005 US Open, she left tennis and gave birth to Jada in 2008. She was 26 -- Osaka’s age – when she won the US Open, her first of three Grand Slam titles as a mother.

The experience of Elina Svitolina might also prove instructive. Her last match before giving birth to daughter Skai was the 2022 Miami Open. One year later, she returned in Charleston -- and went on to match her career bests at Roland Garros and Wimbledon, where she reached the semifinals.

After losing to Svitolina in the fourth round, fellow mother Azarenka noted she was playing more aggressively than before.

“I think she plays much more freely with no pressure,” Azarenka said.

This could have positive ramifications for Osaka, whose last two seasons on tour were sometimes difficult. She withdrew from the 2021 French Open one day after she was fined $15,000 for refusing to be interviewed by the media.

“I never wanted to be a distraction, and I accept that my timing was not ideal and my message could have been clearer,” Osaka said in a statement. “More importantly I would never trivialize mental health or use the term lightly.”

After going 12-4 to start the 2022 season, including a finals berth at the Miami Open in March, Osaka won only three matches the rest of the year.

Not long after the birth of her daughter, Osaka began posting pictures of herself on court, smacking balls with that familiar authority. Recently came the news that she has assembled her old team, re-hiring strategic coach Wim Fissette and performance coach Florian Zitzelsberger.

As Zitzelsberger explained, Osaka is taking advantage of what was essentially a fourth-month training block before play begins in Australia.
 
“At the moment, the biggest focus is not tennis," Zitzelsberger told wtatennis.com. “The biggest focus is just bringing her back to a really athletic and healthy state, while we can now work on court. From the tennis side, Wim now has the chance to work on things that we always wanted to work on but didn’t get the time before.”
 
How will it play out? How will Osaka play out?

“Who knows?” said Navratilova, laughing. “You might just as well go to a tarot card reader. I think emotionally it will be easier for her because it seems all the mothers play better that way because the most important thing is not on the court. I think it’s going to take the pressure off.”

Shriver agreed, saying, “I think Osaka’s got to be inspired by some very successful maternity women before her … Svitolina, Azarenka, Serena, Tatjana Maria. Having the perspective that you’ve got great things to look forward to at home.”

In Brisbane, Osaka said she’s feeling more confident with who she is and that she’s interacting much more with fellow players. The time away, she added, helped her to appreciate the effort it takes to achieve success.

Heading into childbirth, Osaka wondered if she would be a good mother. Now, looking into the eyes of Shai, realizing that she’s totally dependent on her, Osaka doesn’t wonder any more.  

“I’ve now come into the mindset that I can only keep moving forward,” Oska wrote on Instagram “and everything that will be, will be.”