CANCUN, Mexico -- A year ago in Fort Worth, playing their first WTA Finals, Coco Gauff and Jessica Pegula struggled.

They both lost their three singles matches and went 0-3 as doubles partners. Gauff lost in straight sets to Daria Kasatkina, Caroline Garcia and Iga Swiatek, while Pegula managed only a single set against Aryna Sabalenka, Maria Sakkari and Ons Jabeur. And while they were Top 10 players all, those results were disappointing for the Americans.

“I think last year we were really burnt out,” Pegula told reporters Saturday at the GNP Seguros WTA Finals Cancun. “It was probably an accumulation of doing a lot with singles and doubles, coming up along the end of the year, having a good year, but sometimes you’re not used to having that consistent, full year.

“I think we feel better this year. I have mentally prepared myself a little bit better on what to expect coming in here. Now that it’s not my first Finals, I know what to expect, I know what’s going to happen. Hopefully, I can use that as better preparation this year mentally and physically and have some better results.”

On Sunday, Day 1 of the WTA Finals, the four singles players from the Bacalar Group, including No.1-ranked Sabalenka, are all in action.

[4] Elena Rybakina vs. [5] Jessica Pegula

 

The case for Rybakina: Of the Elite Eight in Cancun, no one has a better winning percentage against Top 10 players this year than Rybakina -- she’s 6-2, with both losses coming after winning the opening set, to Sabalenka (Australian Open final) and Jabeur (Wimbledon quarterfinal).

In the year-end finals, where the margins are thinner against top players, the serve might be the most essential tool in the bag. Rybakina has fashioned the best ace-to-double fault differential among all players, nearly plus-five. Only Garcia -- last year’s WTA Finals champion in Fort Worth -- is over four.

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With breezy, seaside conditions, Estadio Paradisus will offer stout challenges for her greatest weapon.

“I will need to adjust because the wind is quite heavy,” Rybakina told reporters. “I don’t know how it’s going to be on the matches. We are all in the same conditions, it’s just a question of how good are going to be the matches.

“For sure I'm going to stick to my game. I'm going to try to still play aggressive.”

The case for Pegula: No Hologic WTA Tour player has been better on hard courts this year. Pegula has set the mark at 41 matches, two hard-court titles in Montreal and Seoul.

There are three other historical reasons to like Pegula in this one.

First, she holds a 2-1 head-to-head advantage over Rybakina, winning both 2022 matches and losing this year in Miami. Second, there’s something about Mexico -- she’s 5-0 in WTA main-draw matches in Mexico, winning the title in Guadalajara last year. Third, she’s been on something of a tear against Top 10 players, winning three straight, against Gauff and Swiatek in Montreal, and Sakkari in Tokyo.

Pegula will have to be aggressive against Rybakina and take advantage of the few break points she sees.

“It’s always tough playing someone who is such a big server, such a powerful player, because sometimes there’s not much you can do if they’re feeling their game and they’re really on," she said. "I think I play well against those types of players, so I'm just going to have to buckle down tomorrow and not get frustrated if her level is really high, do the best I can.”

Bacalar Group

WTA

[1] Aryna Sabalenka vs. [8] Maria Sakkari

 

The case for Sabalenka: The WTA Finals, as Pegula and Gauff might attest, can be a bit daunting for first-time qualifiers.

Two years ago in Guadalajara, Sabalenka went 1-2 in round-robin play and failed to reach the quarterfinals. On Saturday, she told reporters what she learned from last year’s year-end event in Fort Worth, where she went all the way to the final.

“If you win the first match, you have to stop counting, thinking what should I do to, I don't know, get out of the group,” Sabalenka said. “You just have to focus on yourself and your game, just stop thinking. That's the main thing, just focus on your game.

“You don’t have to overdo things here in the Finals. It’s just another tournament, yet different format.”

Sabalenka could become the first player to make consecutive finals at the WTA Finals since Serena Williams (2013-14).

The head-to-head record clearly favors Sabalenka. She’s won six of nine matches. She won their only previous hard-court meeting this year, in the Indian Wells semifinals, in straight sets. She’s 2-0 this year overall.

The case for Sakkari: Technically, Sakkari didn’t qualify for the singles field here, but vaulted into the final spot when Karolina Muchova pulled out with a right wrist injury. Experience is on her side. Of the players assembled here, she and Sabalenka have played the most matches against Top 10 players, 58 and 56, respectively.

Playing with this kind of house money could be a good thing for Sakkari. After a frustrating stretch through the summer hard courts, she made the decision to play with more joy and stress less. The result? The biggest title of her career in Guadalajara. The circumstances of this tournament should allow her to continue that vibe.

“That was the key,” she said of her attitude adjustment. “That was the reason why I think I positioned myself in the best possible spot to be the number one alternate, then eventually get the last spot. Yes, the crowd loves me here, and I love them, too. I’ve said it many times: There’s a special connection.

“This week is a celebration for me. I’m grateful to be here, to be competing again in the Finals because three times in a row is I think a great achievement. I’m just going to go out there and enjoy."

Doubles action:

The No.1-seeded team of Coco Gauff and Jessica Pegula face off against No.7 Gabriela Dabrowski & Erin Routliffe in a match that will conclude play.

The first match of the tournament features No.3 Shuko Aoyama and Ena Shibahara vs. No.5 Desirae Krawczyk and Demi Schuurs.