Point-counterpoint: Iga Swiatek or Naomi Osaka in the Miami Open final?

Naomi Osaka versus Iga Swiatek. This is the perfectly appropriate matchup – tantalizing in so many ways – to begin the post-Ashleigh Barty era.

Osaka, the former World No.1 and four-time major champion meets the 20-year-old player, a Grand Slam champion herself, who will ascend to No.1 on Monday, regardless of the result. The Miami Open final feels like the appetizer for a meal we’ll be enjoying for years.

They have met only once previously, in the third round of the Rogers Cup in Toronto, when Osaka was 21 and ranked No.2. She won a surprisingly difficult match 7-6 (4), 6-4 against an 18-year-old qualifier ranked No. 65 in the world.

“That was like my first night session on WTA,” Swiatek said. “These matches were important because I felt like I’m doing progress and I can actually compete against the best players, because in previous round I won against Caroline Wozniacki, which was also pretty cool.

Behind the Numbers: Swiatek vs. Osaka in the Miami Open final

“I felt like I have nothing to lose. That was really freeing.”

The stakes are far higher Saturday (1 p.m. ET) at Hard Rock Stadium. With the sudden retirement of Barty – was it really only 11 days ago? – there’s an opening at the top of the Hologic WTA Tour rankings ladder. The winner here takes an important first step toward dominance.

Advantage, Swiatek

It’s difficult to process what’s happened over the past six weeks. Swiatek was ranked No.8 and working her way through the curious maze that is professional tennis. But with a controlled and concise 6-2, 7-5 semifinal victory over Jessica Pegula, Swiatek proved again she’s the currently playing better than anyone.

She’s won 16 consecutive matches, which is significant well beyond this extraordinary moment. This is the sixth-longest streak since 2010, a gaudy list headed by Serena Williams (34, in 2013), Victoria Azarenka (26, 2012) and Osaka (23, 2021). Winning titles in Doha and Indian Wells – the first two WTA 1000 tournaments of the season – is remarkable in itself. Taking the Miami Open would put Swiatek in an entirely different category.

For a number of reasons the Sunshine Double, winning the BNP Paribas Open and Miami Open back to back in the same year, is the rarest of feats. Only three women – Stefanie Graf, Kim Clijsters and Azarenka – have done it. Swiatek would be the fourth and, significantly, the youngest. Here’s another jaw-dropping testament to her precocity: Swiatek is only the fifth woman to reach the final of both Indian Wells and Miami before her 21^st birthday, joining Monica Seles, Serena Williams, Martina Hingis and Maria Sharapova.

Read: Swiatek a win away from joining the elite Sunshine Double Club

Let those names and their accomplishments wash over you for a moment. And there’s this for added context – last year Swiatek qualified for the WTA Finals in Guadalajara with 3,226 rankings points. Through three months this year her total is 3,570.

“I’m really proud, honestly,” Swiatek told reporters after defeating Pegula. “I mean, it’s kind of hard to catch up with everything. I try to use this streak as something positive and something that’s going to give me a kick, but yeah, it’s pretty weird situation that I’m in.”

Semifinal results: Osaka hits 18 aces, overcomes Bencic | Swiatek hold off Pegula

Alex points out correctly below that Osaka is a terrific competitor and (with 18 aces against Belinda Bencic in the semifinal) serving lights out, a nice combination. I would respectfully submit that Swiatek is a pretty gritty player herself. During this streak she’s beaten, among others, Aryna Sabalenka, Maria Sakkari (twice), Anett Kontaveit and Simona Halep. She’s won 32 of 36 sets and 212 of 306 games.

Oh, and that Osaka serve, Alex? Swiatek is the only WTA player this year to win more than half of her return games. The last player to win 16 consecutive matches before Swiatek, excluding walkovers, is Osaka, going back to the 2020 US Open. Unlike the last time they met, Swiatek feels like she’s playing on a level field.

“I can win these kind of matches and be that kind of player that is going to go through the first rounds and be in the top and actually maybe stay there,” she said. “For sure it’s giving me a lot of confidence and a lot of satisfaction.” -- Greg Garber

Advantage, Osaka

Naomi Osaka is one of the toughest, hardest competitors tennis has seen, and she proved it again in her semifinal win against Belinda Bencic.

Afterward, Osaka said that she felt as though she hadn't actually managed to figure Bencic out. This tallied with the run of play: Bencic's ability to read her serve and redirect her pace left Osaka scrambling and uncomfortable right to the end of the match. Osaka rarely found a consistent answer when the Swiss got on the front foot and swarmed the net.

But while she didn't outplay Bencic, Osaka out-competed her. She responded to the pressure on return by coming up with even better serves - 18 aces in total - and gutted out a handful of key deuce tussles.

That's a quality Osaka has repeatedly showed throughout her career in big matches. She blocked out a storm of controversy in the 2018 US Open final, recovered after missing triple championship point in the 2019 Australian Open final and - in a match eerily similar to the Bencic semifinal - somehow turned around the 2020 US Open final after getting similarly overwhelmed by a confident, peaking opponent.

Osaka's openness about her psychological struggles and patches of self-doubt have followed her for some time. But when it comes to what goes on within the lines of a tennis court, Osaka's ability to stay calm and clutch under pressure, even when the entire run of play is against her is what makes her such a difficult opponent.

Which brings us to a dream final against Swiatek. There isn't much to go on in terms of concrete analysis. Osaka won their sole meeting three years ago, but both are in radically different places now; both have won five straight finals and have a history of bringing their best tennis when a trophy is on the line. Swiatek has won more recently - but Osaka could be physically fresher.

A battle of the forehands, Swiatek's heavy spin against Osaka's flatter power, is hard to call. Osaka probably has the edge on serve, though this could depend on how many first serves she lands. It's pointing toward a tight final decided by a handful of points - and here, too, Osaka has an advantage. Swiatek's run has been characterized by shutting opponents almost completely out of the match. But even when seemingly overwhelmed, Osaka has a knack of finding a way to triumph. – Alex Macpherson