Tauson’s biggest title or Andreeva’s next milestone? The Dubai final awaits

Saturday’s final between No. 12 seeded Mirra Andreeva and Clara Tauson at the Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships should be a scorcher. 

At 17, Mirra Andreeva is the youngest player to reach a WTA Tour 1000 final since they were created 16 years ago.

But set aside her astonishing precocity for a moment and consider the results of the past two days:

Dubai final: Andreeva vs. Tauson, Saturday 7 p.m. local, 10 a.m. ET

First, it was a muscular straight-sets win over five-time Grand Slam singles champion and No. 2 seed Iga Swiatek, then Friday, she came back to beat No. 6 Elena Rybakina by winning the last five games of the third set.

For Tauson, the 22-year-old from Denmark beat World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka earlier in the tournament before a 6-4, 6-7 (4), 6-3 semifinal win Friday over Karolina Muchova.

It was Tauson’s 15^th win of the year -- the highest total among all Hologic WTA players.

Andreeva has not faced Clara Tauson in WTA events in her career, but you get the idea we could be seeing this matchup for the next decade.

Who has the advantage? Greg Garber and Courtney Nguyen make the case for the two unlikely finalists: 

Advantage, Andreeva

What were you doing when you were 17?

All Andreeva has done in Dubai is beat three former major champions -- Rybakina, Swiatek and Marketa Vondrousova. Only Maria Sharapova was younger when she did that -- and it was more than two decades ago.

This isn’t a result anyone saw coming, including Andreeva.

“After playing in Doha and losing tough second round, having a lot of opportunities, I just felt a bit down,” she told reporters. “Last year I didn’t play so good on these courts in Dubai. I was like, `Well, OK, whatever. I’m just going to play.’

“In the end, when you don’t think about what’s going to happen, it always ends up being one of the best tournaments of your career.”

Down 3-1 to Rybakina in the third set, Andreeva won three straight games. But serving at 4-3, she fell into a love-40 hole -- and you could just feel a break back coming from Rybakina. Somehow, Andreeva saved four break points in that pivotal game and now, a tournament-high 24 break points.

Her resilience is extraordinary. Earlier, Andreeva stroked four double faults in a single game and still managed to win the first set. In the end, she won a single point more than Rybakina.

Andreeva is more powerful this year -- she had eight more winners than Rybakina and eight fewer unforced errors -- and there is a thoughtful shape to her shots. With the guidance of coach Conchita Martinez, she’s playing terrific tactical tennis. She employed a number of slices against Rybakina and, with some short forehands reminiscent of Roger Federer, she drew Rybakina into the net before hitting some devastating passing shots.

She’s the only teenager in the Top 100 PIF WTA Rankings, but there is a huge milestone within reach. A win in this final would send her into the Top 10, making her the youngest to achieve that since Nicole Vaidisova nearly 19 years ago.

Before she knew her finals opponent, Andreeva confidently broke down the games of both Tauson and Muchova.

“Karolina, she likes to play smart,” Andreeva said. “She uses dropshots. She plays a lot of approaches, just coming to the net. I know that Clara, she’s a heavy hitter, big server.

“I think I know how to play against both of them.” -- Greg Garber

Advantage, Tauson

If Andreeva's run to the final was one few saw coming, Tauson's is one everyone should have. Now healthy and fit after promising seasons marred by injuries, she started the year outside the Top 50 but has quietly emerged as one of the most consistently dangerous players on tour. 

With her gritty win over Karolina Muchova on Friday, Tauson now leads the tour in wins this year (15), one more than Australian Open and Adelaide champion Madison Keys and No. 2 Iga Swiatek. Her win over Muchova would have been the highlight of any player's tournament -- especially when the Czech was hitting shots like this -- but Tauson's signature win came two rounds earlier. 

Few players on tour can make World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka look like the underpowered player on court, but that's precisely what Tauson did in her 6-3, 6-2 dismantling in the Round of 16. Sabalenka had no answers to Tauson's baseline power and deceptively good court coverage. 

When she was younger, Tauson was always quick to reject the lazy comparisons to the first Great Dane, Caroline Wozniacki. It's easy to see why. What has made Tauson such an exciting young prospect has been her ability to marry her preternatural baseline power game with outstanding vision and court IQ. If Tauson's power game was the key to her win over Sabalenka, her court acuity is what powered her win over Muchova. 

All the pressure will be on Andreeva on Saturday. Tauson will be able to swing freely and confidently, which is why she's been so dangerous in Dubai. It will take a lot to make her question her decision-making given her results this year. And she has the weapons to make Andreeva doubt.

"I won a lot of good matches this year and played some good tournaments," Tauson said. "I think the consistency has been very important for me. I don't think I've ever put down these kind of results on this level. So it's really nice for me that I can go out there and play freely.

"I mean, in most matches on this level I'm going to be the underdog. But hopefully soon I'll have a better ranking so the pressure's going to be on me." -- Courtney Nguyen