Andreeva upsets Rybakina in Dubai to become youngest-ever WTA 1000 finalist

Mirra Andreeva has become the youngest player to reach a WTA 1000 final since the format's inception in 2009 after the 17-year-old defeated No. 6 seed Elena Rybakina 6-4, 4-6, 6-3 in the Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships semifinals, winning the last five games in a row from 3-1 down in the decider.

Dubai: Draws | Scores | Order of play 

The No. 12 seed is the third teenager to reach a WTA 1000 final since the format's inception in 2009 following 2021 Rome champion Iga Swiatek and 2023 Cincinnati winner Coco Gauff. It will be her second tour-level final following Iasi last July, where Andreeva claimed her maiden title.

Having defeated Swiatek in the quarterfinals and Marketa Vondrousova in the second round this week, Andreeva is also the youngest player to beat three Grand Slam champions in a single tournament since a 17-year-old Maria Sharapova defeated Svetlana Kuznetsova, Anastasia Myskina and Serena Williams at the 2004 WTA Finals Los Angeles.

Andreeva is guaranteed to rise to a new career high in next week's edition of the PIF WTA Rankings. She will be No. 11 if she loses the final, but if she defeats Karolina Muchova or Clara Tauson to claim the title, she will make her Top 10 debut -- becoming the youngest player to be ranked inside the Top 10 since Nicole Vaidisova in 2007.

"I don't know if it's a paradox or something": Afterwards, Andreeva said that the most remarkable aspect of this breakthrough week was how little she had expected it. She was coming off a heartbreaking 3-6, 6-3, 7-5 second-round loss in Doha last week to Rebecca Sramkova, and was not in a positive frame of mind.

"Honestly, after playing in Doha and losing tough second round, having a lot of opportunities, I just felt a bit down," she said. "Not depressed. I was, 'Well, maybe now this time I'm not playing my best tennis, so OK, it's fine.' Last year I didn't play so good on these courts in Dubai. I was like, 'Well, OK, whatever. I'm just going to play. We're going to see.'

"In the end when you don't think about what's going to happen, it always ends up being one of the best tournaments of your career. I don't know if it's a paradox or something, but it's just like this."

Second straight revenge win: For the second match in a row after her Swiatek win, Andreeva dealt out revenge against a Top 10 player who had narrowly denied her in their only previous meeting. In the third round of Beijing 2023, Rybakina had come from a set and 4-2 down to win 2-6, 6-4, 6-1. The result is Andreeva's sixth career Top 10 victory.

The parallels with the Swiatek win ran deeper, and were indicative of Andreeva's growing match maturity. On Thursday, Swiatek took a 3-1 second-set lead, threatening to repeat her comeback win over Andreeva at Cincinnati 2024 -- only for the teenager to rattle off five games in a row.

Against Rybakina, Andreeva had thrilled the Dubai crowd throughout the second set with a series of phenomenal passing shots. But Rybakina was implacable on serve, and stole the set by simply being more solid at its close. In Beijing, Andreeva had fallen away in the third set after a similar turnaround, and history threatened to repeat as she went down 3-1. 

But Rybakina squandered a point to lead 4-1 with a netted backhand. Andreeva seized the lifeline and steadied her game -- and just as she had against Swiatek, ran off the last five games of the match.

"No, this is not happening again": "It was a bit hard after the second set," Andreeva said afterwards. "I don't think I had any break points, but I just felt like I was very close. I was right there with her. In the end I had few flashbacks to our last match in 2023. So I was like, 'No, this is not happening again. Mirra, c'mon.'

"I went to the toilet. I tried to take my time. I tried to think what am I supposed to do. I tried to change something. Then in the end I just kept believing in myself. I was like, 'Well, I won the first set, I was right there with her in the second, didn't go my way, so I'm just going to keep playing my game. I'm just going to keep putting the ball in, run, fight, do whatever I can.' In the end it worked somehow. I don't even know how."

Excellence on offense and defense: The first set was played in the style preferred by Rybakina: first-strike pre-eminence and few extended rallies. Andreeva's serve was not as impressive as it had been against Swiatek, where she fired 10 aces, but she managed to go toe-to-toe with the Kazakhstani. Aggressive returning garnered her the first break of the match for 3-2, and though three double faults handed it back in the next game, Andreeva found another brace of return winners to seize a 4-3 lead. She was also more efficient on break points in the first set, converting both of her opportunities while saving four of five against her. Indeed, Andreeva would save 10 out of 13 break points in total.

Andreeva's crowd-pleasing hot shots showed off her anticipation and accuracy on defense in the second set. But the more important, albeit less flashy, story of the set was Rybakina's improved serving. The former Wimbledon champion raised her first serve percentage from 55% to 65%, and that difference was sufficient for her to ease through the set without facing a break point. In the final game, it was Andreeva who buckled.

Though the home stretch of the match was the scrappiest in terms of quality, Andreeva's determination to cling on to the match was impressive. Having hauled herself to a 4-3 lead, she came through her last real test with flying colors, fending off four break-back points -- the last with another magnificent pass.

By contrast, Rybakina's radar went increasingly awry, with her final two service games marked by a cascade of unforced errors that took her tally to 50.