The case for the Indian Wells finalists: How Andreeva can stop Sabalenka

It’s a startling contrast: World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka versus the youngest player in the PIF WTA Rankings’ Top 150 in Sunday’s BNP Paribas Open final.

And while that might sound like an unfair fight on the surface, it is certainly not.

Mirra Andreeva’s passport says she is 17 years old, but she’s already an old soul -- working on an 11-match win streak. In a terrific Friday semifinal match, she disabled No. 2-ranked Iga Swiatek 7-6(1), 1-6, 6-3 with a stunning display of savvy. It was her second win over Swiatek in less than a month.

Sabalenka vs. Andreeva, Sunday, 11 a.m. PT (2 p.m. ET)

Meanwhile, Sabalenka ended Madison Keys’ 16-match win streak with a forceful 6-0, 6-1 victory in the nightcap. It was, shockingly, over in 51 minutes.

Sabalenka is nine years older than Andreeva and holds a vast edge in experience.  Is that a good thing, or does it put more pressure on her?

“Doesn’t matter,” Sabalenka told reporters. “I passed this stage of thinking about the age of my opponent. She’s 17 and is just two years older than my sister. I look at my sister as a kid. I remember her being this little baby. 

“So I look at Mirra and think, ‘Oh, my God, I’m so old.’ Yeah, that’s just crazy. I’m depressed right now. Why do you ask that question? I’m almost 30.”

Sabalenka was smiling when she said it. She’ll be in a different frame of mind Sunday when they step on the court.

Greg Garber and WTA Insider Courtney Nguyen make the case for their respective candidates:

Advantage, Sabalenka

For the better part of three months, Madison Keys was the best player in women’s tennis -- until she wasn’t.

That wall she ran into was Sabalenka, who won the first 11 games. You can trace that result directly back to Jan. 25, when Keys won the third set of the Australian Open final (it was 7-5) and collected her first major title.

Sabalenka, who had been going for her third straight in Melbourne, was heartbroken.

“I played really bad and she played great,” Sabalenka said. “Let’s just call it tennis.”

Actually, it was a classic case of revenge.

“I was trying to keep the same rhythm, trying to put as much pressure on her as I could,” Sabalenka said. “I finished this match as fast as possible.”

In her first match this year against a Top 10 player, Sabalenka lost a single game. This, Courtney, is why Andreeva should be concerned.

For the World No. 1 is at the height of her powers. Against Keys, she ignored the cold and the wind and focused fiercely on the ball. History says she’ll be similarly committed with Andreeva on the other side of the net.

This will be their sixth meeting, and no one has beaten Andreeva at this level more than Sabalenka. The first came nearly two years ago when the 15-year-old reached the Round of 16 in Madrid: Andreeva won five games against Sabalenka. A year later at the same venue she got four. People will point to Andreeva’s three-set quarterfinal victory over Sabalenka at Roland Garros as a reason for hope.

We direct you to this year’s matches in Brisbane and Melbourne, where Andreeva managed only eight games in two matches. That’s four wins in five -- all in straight sets. Sabalenka knows what time it is. She’s well aware that Andreeva is probably the next big thing. This is an opportunity to reassert her dominance.

There’s another motivation here. Sabalenka has never won this title. She reached the final two years ago, but fell there to Elena Rybakina. 

Listen to Sabalenka describing her mindset going into the Keys match:

“If I would lose today again, it would get in my head and I didn’t want that to happen. I was really focused. I was just really hungry to get this win against Madison.”

Hunger is a powerful incentive. It will be the same Sunday against Andreeva. --  Greg Garber

Advantage, Andreeva

Last week, the WTA website hosted a poll asking fans a question: What is Mirra Andreeva's most impressive quality?

The people have spoken and the people are right. One answer won out by a landslide: her court vision and intelligence. Her coach, Conchita Martinez, has praised her ability to learn and make adjustments quickly. That translates into her matches, where Andreeva prides herself in the ability to play different styles and tactics depending on the player and the conditions, and switch things up mid-match based on the data she's taking in.

That's a remarkable ability for a young player, and it's one that takes self-belief.. It's hard to believe Andreeva notched her first WTA win less than two years ago.

Andreeva's 2025 surge has been remarkable on every level, and that's before you even mention her age. She's the youngest player in tour history to win 11 consecutive matches at the WTA 1000-level, becoming the youngest champion at this level during her streak with her title in Dubai.

Here in the desert, she's already tallied two wins against players in the Top 10 to make a second straight WTA 1000 final. The first was a demolition job on 2023 champion Elena Rybakina. Her gritty three-set win over 2022 and 2024 champion Iga Swiatek was her second.

Facing down the most dominant champion this tournament has seen in years, Andreeva took her amped-up game to Swiatek. She outserved and outhit the former No. 1 in the first set and then, after Swiatek upped her level to force a third, Andreeva switched up her tactics to deploy her disciplined and physical counterpunching game to seal the win.

After losing to Sabalenka in January at the Australian Open, Andreeva joked that she wouldn't mind not seeing the World No. 1 in her draw for a little while. No luck in that. Sabalenka remains the one puzzle she has yet to solve.

"The matches that we played this year didn't really go my way," Andreeva said. "Yeah, I can say she almost killed me, especially in Melbourne.

"I'm gonna try to take a revenge, because I still have nothing to lose, and I feel like the match is going to be probably entertaining. There is going to be a lot of, I think, a lot of winners, a lot of great points." 

One big difference-maker for Andreeva could be her improved serve. Much to her own surprise, she struck two serves that registered over 120 mph against Swiatek, including one that topped out at 126. If she can roll through her service games against Sabalenka, she has more than a fighting chance on Sunday. -- Courtney Nguyen