Who will advance to the BNP Paribas Open semifinals out of the top half of the draw? And could we see a rematch of January's thrilling Australian Open final between World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka and No. 5 Madison Keys? 

We'll get our answer on Thursday.

Indian Wells: Draws | Scores | Order of play

The top-half quarterfinals are set in Indian Wells. Top-seeded Sabalenka will take on No. 24 seed Liudmila Samsonova, while Australian Open champion Madison Keys will put her 15-match win streak on the line against a resurgent Belinda Bencic. 

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Here's how the matchups stack up:

[1] Aryna Sabalenka vs. [24] Liudmila Samsonova

Head to Head

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aryna sabalenka
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BLR
More Head to Head

50% Win 2
- Matches Played

50% Win 2

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liudmila samsonova
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RUS

Head-to-head: Tied 2-2

Despite being the World No. 1 and top seed, Sabalenka has flown under the radar in Indian Wells. She came into the tournament still smarting from her narrow defeat to Keys in the Australian Open final, having lost three of her last four matches. But Sabalenka is a former finalist in the California desert and she is into the quarterfinals without losing a set. 

Sabalenka has yet to face a player ranked in the Top 40, but that will change when she takes on Samsonova. Ever experienced, Sabalenka shrugged off any concern that she wasn't battle-tested.

"Listen, I'm 26," Sabalenka said after her 6-1, 6-2 win over Sonay Kartal. "I have played a lot of tournaments, been in a lot of different situations. Every player try to manage their energy and try to close every match as soon as possible just so they physically are ready for that tough matches.

"So I think mentally, physically, I'm more than ready for those tough situations. I'm happy if the match is gonna be easier, I'm also happy."

In contrast, Samsonova has ousted two Top 15 seeds -- Jasmine Paolini and Daria Kasatkina -- en route to her first WTA 1000 quarterfinal since Cincinnati last year. She lost to Sabalenka in straight sets in that event, but her two wins at 2022 Guadalajara and 2023 Cincinnati should give her confidence. At her best, Samsonova's heavy forehand and big serve can be a tough puzzle to solve. 

One notable stat for Sabalenka as she tries to win her first Indian Wells: in her two wins over Samsonova at 2023 Adelaide and 2024 Cincinnati, she went on to win the tournament. 

Belinda Bencic vs. [5] Madison Keys

Head to Head

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belinda bencic
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SUI
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50% Win 2
- Matches Played

50% Win 2

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madison keys
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USA

Head-to-head: Tied 2-2

In her first tournament since winning the Australian Open, Keys has come through two tough three-set wins to extend her win streak to an outstanding 15 matches. She went the distance to edge Elise Mertens and Donna Vekic, and in both instances, the American found her biggest strikes in the biggest moments to fend off her challengers. 

With that, Keys became the first player since Serena Williams in 2015 to win her first 10 complete three-set matches of the season. She's also the fifth woman in the Open Era to win her first 15 hard-court matches of the year, joining Billie Jean King, Chris Evert, Martina Navratilova, and Serena Williams. 

The result of her efforts is a 17-1 start to the season and the No. 1 position on the Race to the WTA Finals. 

Keys has split her four prior meetings against Bencic. They have played on every surface and each match was decided in straight sets. Keys won on hard court and red clay. Bencic got her back on grass and green clay. How that plays out on Indian Wells' slower, high-bouncing court will depend on which server has the better day. 

Bencic's comeback to the top form has been so fast it almost seems disrespectful to keep referring to it. The 27-year-old Swiss won her third tournament back from maternity leave and is now in her first WTA 1000 quarterfinal since 2023 Montreal. With wins over Amanda Anisimova, Diana Shnaider, and World No. 3 Coco Gauff, Bencic is set to surge back into the Top 50.

"I don't think that now everything's changed just because I have a baby," Bencic said. "First of all, I didn't have a baby to improve my career. I had a baby because we felt like that's our purpose of life. That's what we want. That came in the right time of our lives.

"It had nothing to do with my decision of tennis or not or if I'm going to be better than before or not. I don't think there is a Bencic 1, Bencic 2, Bencic 3. If you count how many times I came back, there should be a Bencic 7. I just feel the same, and I don't want to compare all the time if I'm better or not."