We're only two months into the 2025 Hologic WTA Tour season, but plenty of potential narratives are beginning to take shape -- albeit not necessarily the expected ones.
All three champions at the biggest events of the year so far -- Madison Keys at the Australian Open in January, and Amanda Anisimova and Mirra Andreeva at the February WTA 1000s in Doha and Dubai -- were ranked outside the Top 10 at the time. Meanwhile, high-ranked players from Aryna Sabalenka and Iga Swiatek to Coco Gauff and Zheng Qinwen have all fallen prey to an upset or two.
Who's up and who's down? Who has momentum, and who really needs a strong tournament now? Ahead of March's Sunshine Double, we take stock of the year and explore what it means for the WTA 1000s in Indian Wells and Miami.
1. Aryna Sabalenka
Win-loss record: 12-3
Titles: 1 (Brisbane)
Mindful that the calendar is a marathon, Sabalenka lowered expectations ahead of the Middle East.
"I believe I'll just take these two tournaments as a preparation for the Sunshine one, and I'll try to build my tennis," she said before Doha. Her results reflected this: an opening-round loss to Ekaterina Alexandrova in Doha, then a third-round one to Clara Tauson in Dubai.
Sabalenka may have been denied an Australian Open three-peat by Keys in this year's final, but her Australian swing was still a success. She looked every inch the world's dominant player as she won her first 11 matches of the year, including the Adelaide title. Her words suggest that Sabalenka is confident she can turn that form back on at will in March. But even if she dialed back her intensity on purpose, those two losses have taken away the air of certainty she carried on her way to the Melbourne final.
2. Iga Swiatek
Win-loss record: 14-4
Titles: 0
Swiatek has made no secret of her goal to dominate hard courts the way she has ruled clay. February was a significant setback. Doha, where she had won the title for three straight years between 2022 and 2024, was about as reliable a bedrock of her hard-court prowess as any -- but a 6-3, 6-1 semifinal trouncing by Jelena Ostapenko snuffed it out this year. A straight-sets loss to Mirra Andreeva in Dubai -- just Swiatek’s second loss to a player under 18 -- didn’t help matters.
Swiatek has looked formidable at times in 2025. She dropped only 14 games in five matches to reach the Australian Open semifinals and defeated former nemesis Elena Rybakina twice in two meetings. But she has not won a title since Roland Garros, and her last hard-court crown came 12 months ago at Indian Wells. Swiatek has thrived in the California desert before, winning the title in 2022. This year, the defending champion needs to rediscover that form more than ever.
3. Coco Gauff
Win-loss record: 9-3
Titles: 0
Gauff kicked off 2025 in strong form, defeating Swiatek on the way to leading the U.S. to a United Cup title before reaching the Australian Open quarterfinals. But then it evaporated with a loss to Paula Badosa, then two opening-round defeats in the Middle East to Marta Kostyuk and McCartney Kessler.
How unusual is that run of form? Put it this way: It's just the second time since 2020 that Gauff has taken three consecutive defeats to players ranked outside the Top 10. (At the start of 2022, she lost to Keys in Adelaide, Wang Qiang at the Australian Open and Jessica Pegula in Dubai.) Gauff's season needs a boost, and hard courts on home soil could be just what she needs. History suggests this is more likely to come in Indian Wells, where she was a semifinalist last year, than in Miami, where she has yet to reach the quarterfinals.
4. Jessica Pegula
Win-loss record: 13-4
Titles: 1 (Austin)
Since reaching her first Grand Slam final at last year's US Open, Pegula's results have been somewhat middling: a win or two at each tournament but a series of upset losses at the hands of Olga Danilovic (Australian Open third round), Alexandrova (Doha quarterfinals) and Linda Noskova (Dubai third round). After years of battling to break through the quarterfinal barrier at majors, does finally getting there feel different from what Pegula expected?
At the WTA 250 in Austin last week, Pegula found her mojo again. She didn't have to face a Top 50 opponent, but she dropped only one set en route to her seventh career title. In contrast to Gauff, Pegula has performed better in Miami (two semifinals and one quarterfinal) than in Indian Wells (one quarterfinal) -- but she should be primed to keep her Austin momentum going on home soil.
5. Madison Keys
Win-loss record: 14-1
Titles: 2 (Adelaide, Australian Open)
Keys' breakthrough at 29, capturing her first Grand Slam title at the Australian Open, was a feel-good moment that has reshaped the story of her career. But she hasn’t played since, pulling out of Doha and Dubai with a hamstring injury. How Keys adjusts to her new status as a major champion could shape the entire season.
Historic comparisons for Keys, the third-oldest first-time Grand Slam winner in the Open Era, are mixed. Angelique Kerber won her first major at 28 years old, and went on to add two more, as well as the World No. 1 ranking. Francesca Schiavone, who was 29 when she won Roland Garros 2010, also put together a career-best stretch over the subsequent 12 months. By contrast, Marion Bartoli (who won Wimbledon 2013 at 28 years old) and Flavia Pennetta (who won the 2015 US Open at 33 years old) were retired within months. But perhaps the best comparison is Jana Novotna, who won Wimbledon in 1998 at 29 after years of near misses. Novotna delivered high-level results over the next year, but two years later had also retired.
6. Jasmine Paolini
Win-loss record: 6-4
Titles: 0
Paolini spent 2024 consistently exceeding expectations -- first with a stunning WTA 1000 title, then a surprise Slam final, and then another. Understandably, there is some doubt she can repeat those feats this year. She failed to defend her Dubai title, though her third-round defeat at the hands of Sofia Kenin was heavily affected by an ankle injury. None of her other three losses this year -- to Karolina Muchova at United Cup, Elina Svitolina at the Australian Open and Ostapenko in Doha -- were cause for alarm. Paolini may not be in the conversation for the Sunshine Double titles, but if her ankle has recovered, it could be time for her to prove everyone wrong -- again.
7. Elena Rybakina
Win-loss record: 13-5
Titles: 0
Amid the off-court issues that Rybakina has had to deal with this year, the former Wimbledon champion's form has held up. She has won multiple matches at every tournament she’s played, with her only losses coming against Swiatek or the eventual champion. Most importantly, there’s been no sign of the health issues that have troubled her in the past. A magnificent win from six match points down against Badosa in Dubai showed that her competitive spirit is intact. Rybakina has thrived in the Sunshine Double in the past. She is a former Indian Wells champion and a two-time Miami finalist. Expect to see her back in the latter stages of one or both again.
8. Emma Navarro
Win-loss record: 10-5
Titles: 1 (Merida)
Navarro pulled off a series of great escapes in Melbourne, grinding through four consecutive three-setters to reach the quarterfinals. Was it a mirage? Elsewhere, Navarro fell to Kimberly Birrell in the Brisbane second round, Leylah Fernandez in the Doha second round and Sorana Cirstea in the Dubai third round.
But back in North America last week, Navarro found the form that had lifted her into the Top 10 in 2024. There was no scraping through, and her impressive stamina wasn't tested in Merida. The American eased to her first WTA 500 title for the loss of only 15 games in four matches and looked in command of her game. That's a fine way to round into form as Navarro returns to Indian Wells, where she defeated Sabalenka along the way to her first WTA 1000 quarterfinal last year.
9. Zheng Qinwen
Win-loss record: 1-3
Titles: 0
Zheng ended 2024 on a high, powering her way into the Top 5 by winning Tokyo and reaching the finals of Wuhan and the WTA Finals Riyadh. There's been little sign of that form in 2025, though. She has just one match win under her belt, over No. 110-ranked Anca Todoni at the Australian Open. Since then, she's dropped three in a row. She was outfoxed by the variety of Laura Siegemund in Melbourne and Ons Jabeur in Doha, then out-gritted by Peyton Stearns in Dubai. Other top players are heading to the Sunshine Double in need of a title to turn around their fortunes; Zheng simply needs match-wins. History doesn't favor her. She has never gone beyond the Indian Wells second round or Miami fourth round.
10. Paula Badosa
Win-loss record: 10-7
Titles: 0
Badosa's season has several parallels with Navarro's. Like Navarro, she narrowly avoided an early Australian Open upset and battled her way to a deep run -- in the Spaniard's case, her first major semifinal. Like Navarro, she suffered early upsets elsewhere -- to Elina Avanesyan and Ashlyn Krueger in Brisbane and Adelaide respectively, and to Noskova in her Doha opener. Squandering six match points against Rybakina in Dubai wasn't a confidence-booster, either. Like Navarro, Badosa headed to Merida to get some wins on the board -- only for the back injury that plagued her in 2023 to show up again in the quarterfinals. Badosa left the court in tears. The concern now is for her health rather than her form.
Ones to watch outside the Top 10
Mirra Andreeva: As the top players fell by the wayside, a quintet of exciting, dynamic players thrived in Doha and Dubai. Andreeva, 17, became the youngest WTA 1000 champion in the history of the format in Dubai, and as a result the youngest player to be ranked in the Top 10 since 2007. Andreeva's upward trajectory has barely stopped since her 2023 breakthrough. She'll enter the Sunshine Double brimming with confidence after statement wins over Rybakina and Swiatek.
Amanda Anisimova: After a career of ups, downs and a seven-month mental health break in 2023, Anisimova seems ready to come into her own. Still only 23, the American reached her first WTA 1000 final in Toronto last August, then took her first title at that level in Doha. Back in 2018, she made the Indian Wells last 16 as a 16-year-old wild card, upsetting Petra Kvitova en route. A deep run this year would be a full-circle moment.
Jelena Ostapenko: She snapped an injury-affected seven-month drought without consecutive wins to make the Doha final -- par for the course with the streaky Latvian. Whether she sustains the momentum or not, 26th-ranked Ostapenko's entertainment value will remain reliable.
Clara Tauson: Another big hitter, Tauson, stunned Sabalenka en route to the Dubai final. The Dane has leveled up in style this year, resurging after falling out of the Top 100 in 2023. Though still only ranked No. 21, her 15 match wins -- also including the Auckland title -- are the most of any player at tour level in 2025. Tauson has demonstrated both consistency and a formidable peak level and should be a real threat this month.
Karolina Muchova: Since returning from wrist surgery last June, Muchova has also made consistent deep runs, particularly at WTA 1000 level. In February, she reached back-to-back semifinals in Linz and Dubai. The challenge for the Czech now is to parlay her hot shots into match-wins at the deep end of tournaments. Surprisingly for a player of her talent, her only career title dates back to Seoul in 2019.
