Doha semifinal preview: Can Ostapenko maintain her mastery over Swiatek?

The semifinals are set at the Qatar TotalEnergies Open, the first WTA 1000 tournament of the 2025 Hologic WTA Tour season. For the first time in the event's history, the Doha semifinals will feature three unseeded players. The one holdout? The three-time defending champion.

World No. 2 Iga Swiatek's quest to win a fourth straight Doha crown will have to go through a player she has never beaten when she takes on No. 37 Jelena Ostapenko in the first semifinal on Friday. The Latvian owns a 4-0 career record over Swiatek and has already notched one Top 5 win this week over No. 4 Jasmine Paolini. Swiatek extended her Doha win streak to 15 with a physical effort to beat No.7 Elena Rybakina in the quarterfinals.

Doha: Draws | Scores | Order of Play

Awaiting the winner will be either red-hot Ekaterina Alexandrova or Amanda Anisimova. No. 26 Alexandrova has not lost a match since the Australian Open, going on to win the title in Linz and, with Top 5 wins over No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka and No. 5 Jessica Pegula this week, extending her win streak to eight in Doha. No. 41 Anisimova has paved her way to a second WTA 1000 semifinal with four Top 30 wins of her own.

Here's how Doha's final four stacks up:

[2] Iga Swiatek vs. Jelena Ostapenko (5 p.m. local time)

Head to Head

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jelena ostapenko

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LAT

More Head to Head

100% Win 5

- Matches Played

0% Win 0

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iga swiatek

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POL

Case for Swiatek

Swiatek's quest for a fourth straight Doha title could turn out to be her toughest. To book her spot in the final four, Swiatek has had to dig deep to get past two big hitters who have troubled her in the past. After edging Linda Noskova 6-7(1), 6-4, 6-4 in the Round of 16, she came from a break down in the second set to beat Rybakina 6-2, 7-5 in Thursday's quarterfinal. That win, her second over Rybakina this season, leveled her head-to-head against the 2022 Wimbledon champion at 4-4.

Now she takes on the one player who has maintained complete mastery over her in Ostapenko, who is the only active player on tour who has played Swiatek at least twice and never lost.

"Because of the head-to-head, I can kind of play without expectations," Swiatek said, "and just focus on work, and maybe trying to change something so I can finally win against Jelena. She's a tough opponent and she also played amazing always when she played against me. I'll just have another chance, and I'll try to use it."

Ostapenko's brand of high-risk, flat-hitting tennis is the recipe for success against the otherwise dominant Polish player. But Swiatek is the battle-tested one of the two and she comes into Friday's showdown having faced down Noskova and Rybakina's power games. Ostapenko has rolled through her draw without dropping a set, notching wins over Paolini and Ons Jabeur in her last two matches. Her toughest match came in the second round against Liudmila Samsonova, which she won 7-6(5), 7-5. 

Case for Ostapenko

No player has tallied five career wins over Swiatek, and you know Ostapenko will be champing at the bit to be the first. This will be their first meeting since the 2023 US Open, where the Latvian stormed back to win 3-6, 6-3, 6-1 and maintain her perfect 4-0 record. That unblemished record is a huge source of pride for Ostapenko, who has always found her best tennis when facing down Swiatek. Her ability to rush Swiatek in the rally by taking the ball early and redirecting has rendered the Pole a spectator in most of their matches. 

Doha has been a resurgent week for Ostapenko. She came into the tournament with just one singles win under her belt this season and her ranking dipping outside the Top 30. Now she's into her first semifinal since winning Linz one year ago, and her first at the WTA 1000 level since 2023 Rome. 

Ostapenko has a streak of her own that she's trying to maintain: the last three times she's made a tournament semifinal, she's gone on to win the title: 2023 Birmingham, 2024 Adelaide and 2024 Linz.

Ekaterina Alexandrova vs. Amanda Anisimova (following first semifinal)

Head to Head

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ekaterina alexandrova

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RUS

More Head to Head

33.3% Win 1

- Matches Played

66.7% Win 2

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amanda anisimova

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USA

Case for Alexandrova

After getting dumped out of the first round at the Australian Open by Emma Raducanu, Alexandrova was beside herself.

"It was a pretty close match," Alexandrova said. "It was two tiebreaks, and I knew for me, I didn't play the way I wanted to play. There were so many mistakes I could avoid. 

"I was so upset, so I kind of started from the new page after that tournament."

One month later, she's riding an eight-match win streak and playing the best tennis of her career. When she's on, the 30-year-old's ball-striking talent has been undeniable. Last year, she stunned Swiatek and Pegula at the Miami Open to make her second career WTA 1000 semifinal. This week, she came from a set down to knock out Sabalenka in the second round and, again, bested Pegula to make another final four. The run comes a week after her title run in Linz, where she toppled top seed Karolina Muchova along the way.

Case for Anisimova 

The last time Anisimova beat four Top 30 players in a tournament, she marched all the way to her first WTA 1000 final. That was at the National Bank Open last summer, where Anisimova stunned Sabalenka on the way to the biggest final of her career. This week, Anisimova has moved through a formidable draw, beating No. 30 Victoria Azarenka, No. 10 Paula Badosa, No. 27 Leylah Fernandez and No. 21 Marta Kostyuk. She's dropped just one set. 

By swinging freely and managing her nerves in the tight moments -- most notably in her three-set win over Kostyuk in the quarterfinals -- Anisimova has shown once again just how dangerous she can be in any draw, on any day. She is the youngest American to make Doha's final four and is set to play in her eighth WTA semifinal and fifth on a hard court. 

Anisimova certainly has the weaponry to end Alexandrova's win streak, but the biggest question going into Friday night will be her physical recovery. Thursday's hard-fought duel with Kostyuk lasted 2 hours and 29 minutes and ended just before midnight.