Are Sabalenka, Swiatek destined for the Australian Open final? Not so fast

Since the Australian Open draw was revealed two weeks ago, the spotlight has been on the two players who have traded the No.1 ranking for nearly three years.

As No.1 Aryna Sabalenka and No.2 Iga Swiatek methodically advanced through the field, anticipation grew -- a title run by either in the final would give them a combined eight of the past 12 major titles.

But Thursday’s Australian Open semifinals have yet to be played and there are two remarkable obstacles in their way.

Paula Badosa, a former World No.2, spent several months after a brutal back injury wondering if she’d ever play tennis again. As recently as late year she considered quitting -- and now she’s into her first career Grand Slam semifinal.

Madison Keys, less than one month from her 30th birthday, made some bold changes coming into the season -- her racquet and strings as well as her service motion. And here she is again, a decade after her first major semifinal.

Australian Open: Scores | Schedule | Draws

We make the case for each of the semifinalists:

No.1 Aryna Sabalenka vs. No.11 Paula Badosa

Thursday, 7:30 p.m. local (3:30 p.m. ET), Rod Laver Arena

Head-to-head: Sabalenka, 5-2, winning their only previous meeting at a Grand Slam event, in the third round at Roland Garros last year.

The case for Sabalenka: It’s a strong one, for Sabalenka is on a historic tear. 

She’s won 19 straight matches in Melbourne and is intent on winning her third consecutive Australian Open title -- something that hasn’t happened in this century. 

There was a hiccup in her quarterfinal match against Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, but she prevailed 6-2, 2-6, 6-3 in gusty conditions. And Sabalenka was forced to problem-solve in that deciding set, something she’s gotten much better at the past few years.

“There is nothing to do with being scared or anything,” she told reporters. “I think I passed that stage. I was trying to figure out how to play in these conditions. I was struggling a lot with finding my rhythm, finding the solution.

“I was struggling with finding the way, but then I found one way. Yeah, I’m happy that I was able to do that.”

Indeed, these hard, fast courts in Melbourne are her happy place. Sabalenka’s complied a lofty 27-5 at the Australian Open, her best winning percentage (.844) in a major.

“She’s a great player and she has been through a lot,” Sabalenka said of Badosa. “Now she’s back on her best game. I’m really happy to see that. I have to stay aggressive, and I have to put her under a lot of pressure.”

For nearly three Australian Opens, that pressure has been impossible to bear.

The case for Badosa: Safe to say, no player knows Sabalenka better than Badosa. Those seven matches she’s played against Sabalenka are the most of any opponent -- and so are those five losses. Oh, and they’re best friends on tour.

“Plenty of times we had messages before the match,” Badosa said. “It’s pretty chill. We know how to separate things very well. We spoke about it so many times. We admire, respect each other. 

“It’s going to be a battle inside the court, of course, but outside it’s super normal.”

Sabalenka has won the past five matches between them, but it’s worth mentioning that Badosa is 2-1 when they’ve played on hard courts.

The story of the quarterfinals was Badosa’s straight-sets victory over No.3 seed Coco Gauff. It was her first Top 10 win in a Grand Slam, ending a 0-for-3 streak, as well as her first over a former major champion in that setting in nearly three years.

Badosa’s success follows a recent trend; she’s the third player in consecutive Grand Slam events to reach her first semifinal after 20-plus main draws -- joining Donna Vekic (Wimbledon) and Jessica Pegula (US Open).

How close did she come to retiring last year?

“Pretty close because I wasn't seeing myself at the level,” Badosa said. “The back wasn’t responding well. I didn’t find solutions. But I wanted to keep it a last try, a last chance to finish the year and let’s see how it would go.

“So I’m really proud of what we went through with all my team and especially how I fought through all that, especially mentally.”

No.2 Iga Swiatek vs. No.19 Madison Keys 

Thursday, 9 p.m. local (5 a.m. (ET), Rod Laver Arena

Head-to-head: Swiatek, 4-1. The record is 3-0 on clay but they split 2022 hardcourt matches in Indian Wells and Cincinnati.

The case for Swiatek: Swiatek comes across as an earnest, self-deprecating woman in interview settings but listen to this:

“On tennis court you kind of need to be ruthless,” she told reporters after reaching these semifinals. “This is what I base my strength on and my consistency and the way I just continue to do the good things I do on court.

“Maybe looks ruthless, but it’s not my goal to do that. I just want to win more and more games.”

And lose fewer. So far, mission accomplished. 

Let’s review the scores of Swiatek’s matches here:

6-3, 6-4

6-0, 6-2

6-1, 6-0

6-0, 6-1

6-1, 6-2

That is an exceptionally clean card, with 14 dropped games in five matches and only seven in the past four -- less than one game conceded per set. Only Sharapova, Seles and Graf (no first names needed) entered the final four at the Australian Open with fewer dropped games in the 128-draw Open Era.

Ruthless.

For the first time in her career, Swiatek hasn’t lost a service game in four consecutive matches. She’s playing with an alarming intensity. Her concentration is unwavering, her footwork impeccable. She’s crushing her forehand, playing with a freedom and a fury after her drug case was recently resolved after serving a one-month suspension

Swiatek is playing with an almost surreal confidence.

“Something she does really well is she’s really quick,” Navarro said, “and she does everything with 100 percent conviction and intensity. She has a different style of movement and play. It’s tough to not be sort of affected by that and not feel like, `OK, I have to do everything at the same speed that she’s doing it.’”

Keys concurs.

“I think the biggest thing that makes her so difficult to beat is because since she moves so well, if you miss your spot just slightly, she has enough time to recover, and then the point goes back to neutral.

“So I think it’s really hard to ever really get ahead in a point. She just does such a good job at making people start going for a little bit too much too quickly.”

And that is why Swiatek, 23, has already won five Grand Slams -- more than any other currently active player.  

The case for Keys: While that head-to-head record is problematic, there is a nugget worth investigating. Keys’ sole victory in the Round of 16 at 2022 Cincinnati came in conditions very much like Melbourne.

“I also love the courts in Cincinnati, they play pretty fast,” Keys said after advancing with a three-set victory over Elina Svitolina. “I grew up playing in Cincy. It was just kind of one of those days where the ball felt lively, and I was able to kind of get ahead a little bit earlier in the point consistently and just was able to kind of run with that pressure.”

Advantage, Keys?

After taking the title in Adelaide, Keys has won 10 consecutive matches, equaling her longest career winning streak. She’s 12-1 for the year -- the highest win total by any Hologic WTA Tour player. Her 114 Grand Slam match victories are also the most of any woman in the draw.

“She likes to also play intense and pretty fast,” Swiatek said. “She’s using her powers, especially on a faster hard court. I need to be ready for that and be proactive and also good in defense.”

Another thing working in Keys’ favor is the degree of difficulty she’s had to endure coming through the draw. Her last three wins came against No.10 seed Danielle Collins, No.6 Elena Rybakina and No.28 Elina Svitolina. 

Swiatek, on the other hand, has had an extremely fortunate draw. Before beating Navarro in the quarterfinals, the highest-ranked opponent was No.49 Rebecca Sramkova -- and the lowest was lucky loser Eva Lys, No.128. Coming in, Navarro had played four consecutive three-set matches.

How is Keys a better player than she was in 2015 when she reached the first of her three Australian Open semifinals?

“I think I play a little bit smarter,” she said in her on-court interview. “A little less fearless.”

A younger Keys might have gone for the high-test gas when serving for match point against Svitolina, but when her coach and husband Bjorn Fratangelo called for a kick serve, she complied. And with a safer margin and avoiding the stress of a second serve, she went on to close the deal.

Another sign of maturity is her recent tendency to elect to receive if she wins the opening coin toss.

This version of Keys is more complete, too. She was extremely patient against Svitolina, constantly looking to move forward. She won an extraordinary 23 of 26 net points -- something she’ll have to replicate against Swiatek.