Survival is all about adaptation. The second round of this Australian Open was a masterclass in that respect:

  • Naomi Osaka lost the first set 6-1 to Karolina Muchova -- and rallied to win in three.

“I wasn’t really prepared for it,” Osaka said later. “Yeah, just be aware and try not to get so negative on yourself. Just try not to live in the past.”

  • Coco Gauff, down 5-3 in the second set to Jodie Burrage, won the last four games to secure the match.

“I think it’s just one of those adrenaline-type things,” Gauff said later. 

  • Mirra Andreeva found herself in a third-set tiebreak with Moyuka Uchijima, trailing 8-6.

“I was freaking nervous,” said Andreeva, who then won the last four points.

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They all embraced the ability to change their approach, to think outside the box they were in -- and as a result they’re all into Friday’s third round. As is No.1-ranked Aryna Sabalenka, who herself overcame a 4-1 second-set deficit to defeat Jessica Bouzas Maneiro.

If they can find a way to survive and advance once more, there are some extremely enticing fourth-round matches to look forward to. But before we get ahead of ourselves, let’s savor these eight top-half, third-round matchups:

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Naomi Osaka vs. Belinda Bencic (John Cain Arena, 5 p.m.)

Head-to-head: 3-2, Bencic. Most recently a three-set win went to Osaka in the 2022 Miami semifinals.

They are not seeded, but don’t let that fool you. Osaka is a four-time Grand Slam singles champion and Bencic an Olympic gold medalist. They are also mothers working to recapture their glory days.

“It probably adds extra stuff for you guys,” Osaka told reporters. “Not necessarily for me. We are labeled `moms,’ of course. I think when you go on the tennis court, you just think of yourself as a tennis player.”

They’re both 27, but Osaka’s been back on tour for one year longer. After a solid 2024, she’s looked sharp, winning six of seven matches. The only loss came with an asterisk; she actually won the first set of the Auckland final against Clara Tauson but, with the Australian Open in mind, chose to retire with an abdominal injury.

In a charged second-round match, Osaka defeated No.20 Karolina Muchova 1-6, 6-1, 6-3 -- the first time in her comeback that she’s beaten a seeded player at a Grand Slam, a goal the two-time Australian Open champion was happy to achieve so early this year.

Bencic, too, has been steady since coming back to play three ITF events late last year. She’s won six of eight matches (including qualifying), the last a 6-1, 7-6(3) decision over Suzan Lamens. Ordinarily, she likes to stay in rhythm by playing matches every day, but the every-other-day schedule of a major is now a better fit.

“I have more time,” Bencic said. “A little bit practice and then more family time. We went to the aquarium yesterday, so that was nice. In terms of physically how my body feels, is really good.”

No.1 Aryna Sabalenka vs. Clara Tauson (Rod Laver Arena, 11:30 a.m.)

Head-to-head: 0-0.

It’s become so automatic that it’s easy to take Sabalenka’s success Down Under for granted. The win over Bouzas Maneiro was her 16th straight at the Australian Open, something that hasn’t happened since Victoria Azarenka did it in 2014.

With a record of 52-11 (.825), Sabalenka now owns the best winning percentage of any active player at Grand Slam events on hard court. Since 2020, Sabalenka has won 46 matches with those parameters -- Iga Swiatek (36) is a distant second.

And one of the biggest challenges in her path to a third straight title, No.5 Zheng Qinwen, was eliminated by Laura Siegemund.

“Very sad to see,” Sabalenka said of the player she beat in last year’s final. “Listen, it’s a Slam, you know? Not everyone can handle these emotions. As you see, there [are] so many players playing really well in these conditions. It’s not like if they gone, it’s easy for me. No, it’s not.”

Tauson, for example, is a perfect 7-0 in the new year after taking the title in Auckland and winning matches against No.29 seed Linda Noskova and Tatjana Maria. In Auckland, she never saw a player ranked among the Top 20, so this is a massive step up for the 22-year-old from Denmark.

“I know that she’s very aggressive player, serving well, hitting pretty heavy shots,” Tauson said of Sabalenka. “Really looking forward to face her for the first time.”

No.3 Coco Gauff vs. No.30 Leylah Fernandez (Margaret Court Arena, 7 p.m.)

Head-to-head: 1-0, Gauff, 6-3, 6-2 at this year’s United Cup.

Some context for what we’re seeing from the 20-year-old Gauff: Since 2000, only Maria Sharapova won more Grand Slam matches before the age of 21 than Gauff’s 61. Additionally, only Sharapova and Kim Clijsters won more matches in Melbourne before turning 21 than Gauff’s 14.

To get here, Gauff handled Jodie Burrage 6-3, 7-5 and Fernandez was a 3-6, 6-4, 6-4 winner over Cristina Bucsa.

This will be the second time they’ve played in a span of less than three weeks. In anticipation of her United Cup match against Fernandez, Gauff actually practiced against a few lefties, including Robin Montgomery. She’ll be focused on serving better than the last time out.

“She’s going to be aggressive -- that’s her game,” Gauff said. “She’s a great mover. Slam finalist and has great results against top players. I expect her to play great tennis. I just hope I can do the same.”

No.7 Jessica Pegula vs. Olga Danilovic (Rod Laver Arena, 7 p.m.)

Head-to-head: 1-0, Pegula, who won 6-1, 6-3 in a 2018 ITF W25 event in Orlando on clay.

Pegula loves these conditions -- warm weather and fast hard courts -- and the numbers back that up. Since the turn of the century, only Swiatek (157) and Sabalenka (149) have more than her 142 tour-level match wins on hard courts.

Pegula defeated Mertens 6-4, 6-2 in the second round, while Danilovic upset No.25 Liudmila Samsonova 6-1, 6-2.

No.11 Paula Badosa vs. No.17 Marta Kostyuk (KIA Arena, 12:30 p.m.)

Head-to-head: 3-1, Badosa, including two wins at the Australian Open (2019 qualifying and 2022 third round).

This is a high-quality third-round match, featuring two players who know each other well. Kostyuk was a 6-3, 6-0 winner over Jule Niemeier and Badosa defeated Talia Gibson 6-1, 6-0.

“It’s a tricky match,” Badosa said. “She likes to play in these conditions. She likes to play the big matches. I’m expecting she’s going to bring the best out of her.”

No.12 Diana Shnaider vs. No.18 Donna Vekic (Margaret Court Arena, 11:30 a.m.)

Head-to-head: 1-0, Shnaider, a three-set win in the final of 2024 Bad Homburg on grass.  

Both Shnaider and Vekic have faced challenges to get to this stage. Shnaider has yet to drop a set but was tested early, navigating a first-set tiebreak against Elisabetta Cocciaretto in the opener. In the second round, Ajla Tomljanovic pushed her before Shnaider secured a 6-4, 7-5 victory.

Vekic, coming off a career-best season in 2024, endured a tough three-set battle against Harriet Dart in the previous round.

At just 20 years old, Shnaider holds a recent edge over Vekic, defeating her in the 2024 Bad Homburg Open final to capture the second of her four career titles.

No.14 Mirra Andreeva vs. No.23 Magdalena Frech (1573 Arena, 1:30 p.m.)

Head-to-head: 0-0.

Both players struggled but managed to advance to this first-time meeting.

The 17-year-old Andreeva hung on to defeat Moyuka Uchijima 6-4, 3-6, 7-6[8] and Frech came back to beat Anna Blinkova 0-6, 6-0, 6-2.

No.27 Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova vs. Laura Siegemund (John Cain Arena, 11 a.m.)

Head-to-head: 1-0, Siegemund, but that was nine years ago in Stuttgart.

Siegemund authored the upset of the tournament so far, a 7-6(3), 6-3 win over Zheng, a finalist here last year and the gold medal winner in Paris. How’s that for a game-changer for the 36-year-old German ranked No.97?

“I didn’t expect it,” Siegemund said afterward. “My goal was to win a match here and defend my points. Singles is not really my priority anymore, but at the same time, I know what I can do still. I know that if physically I’m healthy, that my game is there.”

After losing her 16 previous matches against Grand Slam finalists, Siegemund was finally a winner. After going 0-7 in Grand Slams against Top 10 players, she’s on the board.

Meanwhile, Pavlyuchenkova, 33, outlasted Anastasia Potapova 7-6(2), 2-6, 6-2.