RIYADH, Saudi Arabia -- On Thursday at the WTA Finals Riyadh presented by PIF Barbora Krejcikova and Iga Swiatek will play for the second semifinal spot. The catch is that they won’t be playing each other.

Coco Gauff, after a sparkling victory over Swiatek, has already advanced. Fellow American Jessica Pegula has been eliminated. Still, they’ll both have a hand in the end result.

Of the five possible outcomes, only one sends Swiatek to the semifinals -- but based strictly on the seeds, it is the most likely. Quite simply, Swiatek needs to defeat Pegula, while Gauff beats Krejcikova.

If Krejcikova wins, she’s in. There’s even a scenario (Gauff and Pegula both win) that advances Krejcikova with a 1-2 record.

WTA

It’s been a turbulent few months for Swiatek. After losing to Pegula in the quarterfinals of the US Open, she switched coaches and sat out the Asian swing. Here in Riyadh, she came back from a set and two breaks down before beating Krejcikova. Her straight-sets loss to Gauff confirmed that, at least mentally, she wasn’t in match shape. Her frustration was evident from the start.

“I had to have my head kind of on a leash and control it all the time,” Swiatek told reporters. “So I didn’t have that, tight moments, in two months. So I kind of forgot how it is and how much of energy it takes.

“It’s a reminder that nothing comes for free. You always seem to work 100 percent because in tennis the momentum can change pretty quickly. You need to be consistent throughout the whole match, basically to win.”

Day 6 schedule

1 p.m. local time

(2) G. Dabrowski (CAN) / E. Routliffe (NZL) vs (5) C. Dolehide (USA) / D. Krawczyk (USA)

Not before 3:30 p.m.

(2) I. Swiatek (POL) vs (6) J. Pegula (USA)

Not before 6 p.m.

(3) C. Gauff (USA) vs (8) B. Krejcikova (CZE)

Followed by

(4) S. Errani (ITA) / J. Paolini (ITA) vs (7) H.-C. Chan (TPE) / V. Kudermetova

Advancement scenarios

WTA

Qualification scenarios: Will Krejcikova or Swiatek join Gauff in semis?

Match breakdown

No.2 Iga Swiatek (1-1) vs. No. 6 Jessica Pegula (0-2)

Head-to-head: 6-4, Swiatek

This year: Pegula defeated Swiatek 6-2, 6-4 in the US Open quarterfinals

This will be their 11th meeting, making Swiatek the opponent Pegula has faced most in her career. She’s held her own against the player that has held the No.1 ranking for most of the past two years. The most recent match in New York helped catapult Pegula into the final.

Pegula could become only the sixth active player to claim consecutive match-wins against Swiatek -- after Krejcikova, Elena Rybakina, Jelena Ostapenko, Maria Sakkari and Ons Jabeur.

That said, Pegula has looked listless in Riyadh. She’s won only 11 games in two matches that averaged 73 minutes. She’s hit only 14 winners, against 52 unforced errors and been broken nine times. Pegula’s lost three straight WTA main-draw matches for the first time in two years.

On the other side, Swiatek has lost four consecutive matches against Top 10 players this year -- Zheng Qinwen (Paris Olympics), Aryna Sabalenka (Cincinnati), Pegula (US Open) and Gauff (WTA Finals) -- the longest such streak of her career.

No.3 Coco Gauff (2-0) vs. No.8 Barbora Krejcikova (1-1)

Head-to-head: 1-0, Krejcikova. Their only previous match was a barnburner at the 2021 French Open.

Krejcikova saved five set points in the first set and beat a17-year-old Gauff 7-6 (6), 6-3 to advance to the semifinals. In only her fifth appearance in a major singles draw, Krejcikova collected her first Grand Slam singles title, beating Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova in a three-set final.

That Krejcikova is even in this position defies imagination.

No player this century has advanced to the WTA Finals with fewer than 30 match-wins. Krejcikova, plagued by injuries, has played only 31 matches this year.

What would it mean to reach the final four of the year-end tournament after such a difficult season?

“It would definitely be amazing to get through and to keep playing more matches,” Krejcikova said. “So I will do everything in the match to get there.”

She did everything against Pegula, stroking 11 aces and breaking her four times.

Gauff had lost 11 of 12 matches to Swiatek before breaking through with a 6-3, 6-4 win. Perhaps coincidentally (perhaps not), Gauff has now won 11 of her past 12 matches.

She’s been working on her serve, and against Swiatek it was fierce. 

“I’m in the process of changing things, so it’s up and down, and I feel like it’s in the right direction,” Gauff said. “The first set, no break points, which I don’t even know if that’s ever happened [for Gauff] against her.

“First WTA Finals [Fort Worth, 2022] I was 0-3, and now being 2-0, it’s pretty cool. Hopefully I can win three more matches and wrap up the season.”