WTA Finals Day 4 preview: Gauff, Swiatek collide in pivotal matchup

RIYADH, Saudi Arabia -- Head-to-heads are pure history, and Coco Gauff’s record against Iga Swiatek is on the wrong side of it.

Let the record show that Gauff has lost 11 of 12 matches against the five-time Grand Slam champion. Swiatek hasn’t beaten anyone more. Of course, a large part of this can be attributed to age and stage. Gauff, 20, is a little over three years younger; when Swiatek was that age, like Gauff, she had only one major title to her credit.

But when they meet on Tuesday in a critical Orange Group match at the WTA Finals Riyadh presented by PIF, there are reasons to believe the result will be anything but automatic for Swiatek, who still hopes to wrest the year-end No.1 ranking away from Aryna Sabalenka.

WTA Finals Riyadh: Scores | Schedule | Standings

Coming off a two-month layoff and a high-profile coaching change, Swiatek struggled in her first match here, falling behind Barbora Krejcikova one set and two breaks before “finding solutions’’ in a rousing third-set comeback.

Gauff, meanwhile, is dealing right now. She’s won 10 of 11 matches, including a title in Beijing and a semifinal appearance in Wuhan.

“Always playing her is tough,” Gauff told reporters after defeating fellow American Jessica Pegula to set up this matchup of unbeaten players. “I think if I just play my game, I’ll just try to do that and hopefully come out with a win.”

Day 4 schedule

1 p.m. local time

[2] G. Dabrowski (CAN) / E. Routliffe (NZL) vs [4] S. Errani (ITA) / J. Paolini (ITA)

Not before 3:30 p.m.

[8] B. Krejcikova (CZE) vs [6] J. Pegula (USA)

Not before 6 p.m.

[2] C. Gauff (USA) vs [3] I. Swiatek (POL)

Followed by

(5) Caroline Dolehide (USA) & Desirae Krawczyk (USA) vs (7) Hao-Ching Chan (Chinese Taipei) & Veronika Kudermetova 

Orange Group advancement scenarios

• Gauff advances if she wins in straight sets (position in group to be determined)
• If Gauff and Pegula win, Gauff advances as group winner and Krejcikova is eliminated. (Swiatek and Pegula would play for second spot Thursday)
• If Swiatek and Krejcikova win, Swiatek advances as group winner and Pegula is eliminated. (Gauff and Krejcikova would play for second spot Thursday)
• Pegula is eliminated with a straight-sets loss
• Any other combination of results will mean qualification comes down to the final matches

Day 3 breakdown

No.2 Iga Swiatek (1-0) vs. No.3 Coco Gauff (1-0)

Head-to-head: 11-1, Swiatek

This year: Rome semifinals, Swiatek, 6-4, 6-3; Roland Garris semifinals, 6-2, 6-4

It’s worth noting five of Gauff’s losses to Swiatek came on the slow red clay in Rome and Paris -- Swiatek’s happiest places.

“Previous times I played her this year was on clay, so obviously it’s going to be a different match on hard court,” Gauff said. “I hope for a different result than the previous two times.”

Swiatek and Gauff are two of the best movers on the tour, but a faster court might slightly favor Gauff. Certainly, she’s thinking Swiatek’s lack of activity might give her an advantage.

“I’ve had a little bit more matches recently than maybe she has,” Gauff said, “so that could affect [the outcome].”

Swiatek, though, has proved to be money at the WTA Finals. Going back to last year’s title, she’s won six consecutive matches -- only Serena Williams (16) and Elina Svitolina (10) have amassed more since the round-robin format returned in 2003. Only Williams and Justine Henin posted a better rate of winning than Swiatek’s 77 percent.

There’s another wrinkle to consider: Swiatek hit 10 aces in her first match against Krejcikova, more than any of her power-famous colleagues.

“That doesn’t happen often,” she said, almost sounding amused.

In a sign of her growing maturity, Gauff is looking to register her 52nd win in WTA events this year, her best total in a single season. She could also become the first player to win both her first two round-robin matches before turning 21 since Ana Ivanovic and Maria Sharapova in 2007.

Gauff ended a three-match losing streak to Pegula on Sunday.  It’s not impossible to imagine her ending Swiatek’s four-match win streak on Tuesday.

No.6 Jessica Pegula (0-1) vs. No.8 Barbora Krejcikova (0-1)

Head-to-head: 1-1

Most recent: 2023 Dubai semifinals, Krejcikova, 6-1, 5-7, 6-0

Both players, coming off disappointing losses, are fighting for survival -- both facing potential elimination.

“I think we both kind of had tough days today,” Pegula said on Sunday. “So yeah, we’ll be looking to turn that around next match.

“We all know she can obviously beat the best players any day, like all the girls here, really. I haven’t played her in a little bit, so it’ll be an interesting matchup.”

That semifinal in Dubai, as the score suggests, was a disjointed match. But Pegula is one of the WTA’s most consistent players -- she hasn’t lost back-to-back matches in tour events since early March.

One thing to watch is Krejcikova’s level of fitness. She lost 13 of the last 17 games to Swiatek. Krejcikova retired from her second match several weeks ago in Ningbo, citing a back injury.