WTA Finals Day 3 preview: Sabalenka, Paolini meet with group lead on the line

RIYADH, Saudi Arabia -- Great athletes have a habit of attracting great athletes, and it was a treat when Neymar made a surprise appearance on opening day at the WTA Finals Riyadh presented by PIF.

WTA Finals Riyadh: Scores | Schedule | Standings

The Brazilian soccer legend and star of the Saudi Pro League club Al Hilal handled the coin toss when Jasmine Paolini met Elena Rybakina and later visited with World No.1 Aryna Sabalenka.

“I have really cool pictures with him,” Sabalenka said. “We had fun talk. I received a t-shirt with his signature and, and message to me. He watched my game. It’s a pleasure that such big players come to watch me play. I mean, he was on my side.”

Sabalenka had good reason to be thrilled, for she was coming off a straight-sets win over Olympic gold medalist Zheng Qinwen. But at the year-end championship, as in soccer at the highest levels, yesterday is gone -- what have you got for me today? 

The goal, so to speak: continue to survive and advance.

And so, already we’re into Monday’s pivotal second matches of group play for the big-hitting Purple Group. Day 3 features two undefeated players, looking to create a cushion, and two looking for their first win. It’s a potential tipping point, a day that promises some distinct separation.

Day 3 schedule

1 p.m. local time

[6] N. Melichar-Martinez (USA) / E. Perez (AUS) vs [8] K. Siniakova (CZE) / T. Townsend (USA)

Not before 3:30 p.m.

[5] E. Rybakina (KAZ) vs [7] Q. Zheng (CHN)

Not before 6 p.m.

[1] A. Sabalenka vs [4] J. Paolini (ITA)

Followed by

[1] L. Kichenok (UKR) / J. Ostapenko (LAT) vs [3] S. Hsieh (TPE) / E. Mertens (BEL)

Purple Group advancement scenarios

• If Sabalenka and Zheng win their next match, Sabalenka advances as group winner, Rybakina is eliminated (Zheng and Paolini would play for the No.2 spot on Wednesday)
• If Sabalenka wins in straight sets and Rybakina wins in three sets, Sabalenka advances (position to be determined)
• If Paolini and Rybakina win, Paolini advances as group winner, Zheng is eliminated (Rybakina and Sabalenka play for the No.2 spot on Wednesday)
• If Paolini wins in straight sets and Zheng wins in three sets, Paolini advances (position to be determined)
• Any other combination of results will mean advancement comes down to final matches

Day 3 breakdown

No.1 Aryna Sabalenka (1-0) vs. No.4 Jasmine Paolini (1-0)

Head-to-head: 2-1

Most recent: Sabalenka won 6-4, 7-6 (4) in the Round of 16 at 2023 Beijing

Sabalenka, who has won 21 of her past 22 matches, is playing like someone intent on landing her first year-end No.1 ranking. With that opening 6-3, 6-4 defeat of Zheng, Sabalenka is two group wins from guaranteeing herself that honor.  

She won three titles -- Cincinnati, the US Open and Wuhan -- in a span of two months and has adapted flawlessly to a variety of conditions. The most recent challenge was a pro-Zheng crowd in the King Saud University Sports Arena in the first match in Riyadh.

“Actually, I was quite surprised, to be honest,” Sabalenka said afterward. “I didn't expect that many Chinese fans, and it’s cool to see. I’m glad it didn’t work for her. But anyway, it was really great atmosphere.”

While Sabalenka holds that 2-1 head-to-head edge, she and Paolini haven’t played in more than a year -- and today the 28-year-old Italian is a massively improved player. Her 7-6 (5), 6-4 victory over Elena Rybakina was her third Top 10 win this year in Hologic WTA Tour events. That’s as many as she had in all her previous seasons as a professional.

Paolini became the second-oldest player to win her first match at the WTA Finals, following 29-year-old Li Na in 2011.

“Her first serve was so fast,” Paolini said of Rybakina. “But, yeah, I think I played a really solid match, not too many mistakes. I think that was the key to attract her to play many, many balls.”

The speedy defender will have a similar strategy against Sabalenka.

No.7 Zheng Qinwen (0-1) vs. No.5 Elena Rybakina (0-1)

Head-to-head: 2-0, Rybakina

Most recent: Rybakina won 6-1, 6-2 in the round of 64 at 2023 Beijing

Despite the robust crowd support, Zheng fell to 0-5 against Sabalenka. She’s in a 0-2 hole against Rybakina and will have to serve better to avoid going 0-3. Of course, the same can be said for Rybakina, who hadn’t played since withdrawing from the US Open before her second-round match.

In their first matches, Zheng and Rybakina both smacked eight aces but their first-serve percentages were, respectively, 51 and 50.

“I will definitely need to improve that for the next match,” Rybakina said. “I’m not expecting much. I just practiced two-and-a-half weeks so it’s difficult to expect more.”

Rybakina, at her best, is historically lethal on hard courts. This year, she’s 23-6 (.793), a winning percentage surpassed only by Iga Swiatek (.857) and Sabalenka (.848).

If Rybakina’s game recently has been underserved, the reverse is true for Zheng. While the other seven singles players here were already here in Riyadh or headed this way, Zheng was playing -- and winning -- the Toray Pan Pacific Open in Tokyo. Her next win will be her 58^th of the year.