Rankings Watch: The numbers behind Sabalenka’s climb to the top

As Iga Swiatek’s titles mounted -- five in the season’s first six months -- so did her lead over Aryna Sabalenka in the battle for the PIF WTA No.1 Ranking. After Wimbledon, which Sabalenka missed with a shoulder injury, Swiatek held a commanding 4,224-point lead.

That looked unassailable, insurmountable, even … until, recently, when suddenly it didn’t. After winning the Dongfeng Voyah · Wuhan Open a week ago, Sabalenka crept to within 69 points of Swiatek.

“Yeah, that’s really tight ranking right now,” Sabalenka said afterward. “Really nice to see.”

This week, Sabalenka will enjoy the view even more now that she’s surpassed Swiatek again for that coveted No.1 ranking. 

Neither player was in action last week, but with continuing year-end adjustments for falling short of certain tournament quotas, Sabalenka dropped fewer points than Swiatek. Sabalenka holds a 9,706-9,665 lead -- a narrow 41-point margin.

Over the next two weeks, Sabalenka’s lead is likely to increase, giving her a significant edge toward retaining that No.1 ranking at the WTA Finals Riyadh presented by PIF. A year ago, Swiatek entered the year-end championship at No.2, won all five of her matches -- including a semifinal victory over Sabalenka -- to regain the top spot.

How did Sabalenka close the gap so quickly, essentially in a span of two months? With some brilliant play and some help from Swiatek.

Heading into the Cincinnati Open, Sabalenka was actually ranked No.3 behind Coco Gauff, and Swiatek was up 3,289 points. But even though Swiatek reached the semifinals, Sabalenka won the title and collected the 1,000 points that went with it. That cut Swiatek’s lead as they lined up for the US Open. Again, Swiatek produced a good result, reaching the quarterfinals, but Sabalenka again won the title. That sliced the margin to 2,169 points.

Swiatek was the defending champion at the China Open but elected to skip the Asian swing while attending to a coaching change. So while 1,000 points came off Swiatek’s total, Sabalenka went to the quarters, picking up 215 points -- leaving her down 1,069 points. Winning the title at Wuhan, beating No.4 Gauff in the semifinals and No.7 Zheng Qinwen in the final brought Sabalenka an additional 1,000 points. 

And so, in a span of nine weeks, Sabalenka accumulated 4,000 points. By comparison, consider that only seven Hologic WTA Tour players have that many for the entire year.

Sabalenka has continually deflected No.1 questions when they’ve come up with increasing regularity.

“I’m not trying to focus on ranking, to be honest,” she said after the US Open. “Yeah, hopefully one day I’ll see myself on the top of the ranking.”

That day has come. Now, the leading headline going forward: Can she keep in Riyadh and become a year-end No.1 for the first time?

Other notable rankings movements

Daria Kasatkina, +2 to No.9: Kasatkina won her eighth career title (and second of 2024) at last week's WTA 500 event in Ningbo. She returns to the Top 10 for the first time since July 2023.

Mirra Andreeva, +2 to No.17: Andreeva reached her second career final, and first at WTA 500 level, in Ningbo before being pipped by Kasatkina in a tense final. The 17-year-old rises to a new career high.

Karolina Muchova, +5 to No.25: Muchova's run to the last four in Ningbo marked the fourth time in just eight tournaments this year that the Czech has reached the semifinals or better.

Clara Tauson, +11 to No.53: In Osaka, the 21-year-old Dane reached her first tour-level quarterfinal since Linz in February 2023. She returns to her highest ranking since August 2022.

Anna Blinkova, +14 to No.85: Last week, Blinkova played her first ITF-level event since April 2023 at the Macon ITF W100, and went all the way to the title.

Suzan Lamens, +37 to No.88: The 25-year-old Dutchwoman put together a spectacular run out of qualifying in Osaka last week, lifting her first Hologic WTA Tour trophy and breaking the Top 100 for the first time. Lamens is the second qualifier, and second lowest-ranked player, to claim a tour-level title in 2024 (following Sonay Kartal in Monastir).

Photos: All the Top 100 breakthroughs of 2024

Sonay Kartal, +10 to No.92: The Briton won the Shrewsbury ITF W100 title last week, defeating promising teenage compatriots Hannah Klugman and Mingge Xu en route, and reaches a new career high. Kartal's overall record in 2024 is now 49-8.

Kimberly Birrell, +39 to No.111: Birrell, who spent two weeks at her career high of No.100 last autumn, came through qualifying to reach her first WTA final in Osaka.

Aoi Ito, +37 to No.151: The Japanese 20-year-old qualified for her first WTA main draw in Osaka and went all the way to the semifinals, defeating Sofia Kenin and Elisabetta Cocciaretto (her first Top 50 win) on the way.

Sara Saito, +21 to No.158: Another young Japanese player who shone on home soil last week was former junior No.2 Saito, who made the Osaka quarterfinals as a wild card. Saito is just two spots off the peak of No.156 she originally hit in July.

Zarina Diyas, +109 to No.379: The former No.31, who returned to action in April after a two-year injury hiatus, won the first title of her comeback last week at the Kayseri ITF W50.

Julieta Pareja, +89 to No.557: The 15-year-old American, who reached the final qualifying round of the US Open as a wild card, reached her first ITF W35 final in Bakersfield two weeks ago. Pareja becomes the highest-ranked player born in 2009, taking over from Hannah Klugman.

Amelia Honer, +341 to No.674: Playing just her eighth professional tournament, the 21-year-old UC Santa Barbara student won the Bakersfield ITF W35 two weeks ago.