Sabalenka or Zheng: Who will win the year's last WTA 1000 title in Wuhan?

It’s hard enough to win a professional tennis match, let alone a championship final. But when your opponent is playing in front of a home crowd, the degree of difficulty multiplies.

In this year's Cincinnati final, though, Aryna Sabalenka dispatched American Jessica Pegula. At the following US Open, Sabalenka navigated her way past Emma Navarro and Pegula again in the last two matches to win her title in New York.

Wuhan: Scores | Order of Play | Draws

And so, in Sunday’s Dongfeng Voyah · Wuhan Open final, Sabalenka will try to do it for the third straight time when she meets China’s Zheng Qinwen, who was a 6-3, 6-4 winner over Wang Xinyu on Saturday.

“Lately, life [has] been challenging me with playing home-country players,” Sabalenka said, after coming back to defeat Coco Gauff in three sets in her Saturday semifinal. “[I'm] kind of like ready for that. No expectations on support from the crowd. I have my team. I have my family. I have a lot of people who support me around the world. I’ll just focus on that.”

Sabalenka will also be focusing on her third straight title in Wuhan, going back to her wins in 2018 and 2019. She’s also beaten Zheng all three times they’ve played.

For Zheng, the Olympic gold medalist, it’s an opportunity to fuel China’s growing hunger for elite tennis.

Greg Garber and Jason Juzwiak debate the merits of the two finalists:

The case for Sabalenka

Here’s what Sabalenka was thinking after Gauff won 10 of the first 13 games in their Saturday semifinal:

“At the beginning, I couldn’t do anything. I didn’t feel any strokes. It felt like, Whatever. I kind of like accepted I already lost this match. I was like, OK, whatever. If she’s going to give me chances, I’ll try my best. If not, whatever, I'll fly back home, enjoy a little rest time and prepare for the [WTA Finals Riyadh].”

And then she came back to win 1-6, 6-4, 6-4.

“It is a bit frustrating ‘cause I wanted to win this match,” Gauff said afterward. “But I know against her, as soon as your level slips, she can raise her level. That's kind of what happened today.”

Jason, it’s been happening a lot lately. Sabalenka is a searing 16-0 in Wuhan. Moreover, she’s won 19 of her past 20 matches, and a win here would give her two WTA 1000 titles in a single year for the first time in her career.

She and Zheng have a brief history -- and it’s been decidedly one-sided. They’ve met in three of the past five Grand Slams and Sabalenka has won all of their meetings in straight sets:

2023 US Open quarterfinal -- 6-1, 6-4. 2024 Australian Open final -- 6-3, 6-2. 2024 US Open quarterfinal -- 6-1, 6-2.

Zheng says she has learned some lessons from that loss earlier this year in Melbourne, but that US Open result suggests otherwise.

Sabalenka is playing with enormous confidence these days and the fact that she’s never lost in Wuhan will make her even harder to beat. She’s set to surpass World No.1 Iga Swiatek in the PIF Race to the WTA Finals (by a considerable margin) and there’s a good chance the overall No.1 ranking will be in play next month when they arrive in Riyadh.

She’s won five matches in a row against Top 10 players for the first time in her career. It says here, Jason, that the No.7-ranked Zheng will make it six straight. -- Greg Garber

The case for Zheng

Obviously, Greg, the numbers don't lie. Sabalenka has never lost a match in Wuhan. She has never lost a set against Zheng. The top-ranked Chinese player has to be seen as a fairly overwhelming underdog on Sunday.

And yet...this time around, it could be a little different.

Zheng came into the two consecutive WTA 1000 events in her home country with greater scrutiny and focus as the newly-crowned Olympic champion. Not only did she not wilt under this heightened pressure, she showed that, as Billie Jean King always says, pressure is a privilege.

"Queenwen" posted her first WTA 1000 semifinal last week in Beijing and has now gone one further in Wuhan. Her mentality has thrived in these intensified situations, and that mindset (along with raucous support from the excited crowds) could help her upend the head-to-head.

"In the [Olympic] quarterfinal, semifinal, my hands were shaking during the match," Zheng said after her Wuhan semifinal. "After Olympic Games, I never had those feelings anymore. My hand is not shaking during the match at least.

"It's more under control," Zheng concluded with a smile.

Additionally, Zheng has become a master of first-strike plays, and I'm being as literal as possible -- Zheng is 2024's new ace leader on tour. She started Wuhan tied with Elena Rybakina at the top, with 336 apiece in tour-level matches this year. After 32 aces this week, Zheng stands alone with a total of 368.

She's come up with them at big moments as well. Serving for the match against Wang Xinyu, Zheng fell behind 15-30, and world feed commentator Kevin Skinner noted it would be a good time to come up with some of her key weaponry. Just like that, Zheng hit two aces in a row to set up match point.

Zheng has used that booming serve to lead the tour this year in first-serve points won: she has prevailed in 75.5% of those deliveries.

It's much easier said than done against the top seed, of course. But the more times Zheng prevents Sabalenka from even getting into the point by zipping big first serves around the World No.2, the greater chance the scenario can tip in the homeland hope's favor.

"Sabalenka, she's a really aggressive player, but I'm aggressive, too," Zheng said. "So we will see tomorrow." -- Jason Juzwiak