Advantage Gauff or Muchova? Making the case for the Beijing finalists

Nothing definitive, as Coco Gauff likes to say, happens in the opening set.

Beijing: Scores | Order of Play | Draws

“I always grew up on the philosophy that the second set is the most important set,” Gauff told reporters Saturday at the China Open. “You either win the match on that set or you stay in the match with that set.

“Obviously I want to win the first set. It would make maybe my life easier. But, yeah, I’d rather be able to raise my level in the second set than kind of crash after the first.”

This it’s-only-an-appetizer approach has served her well this week in Beijing. Gauff was a 4-6, 6-4, 6-2 winner over Paula Badosa in the semifinals -- marking the third match in a row in which she dropped the first set and came back to win.

That vaulted her into Sunday’s final opposite Karolina Muchova, who defeated Zheng Qinwen 6-3, 6-4. In contrast to Gauff, Muchova has sailed. She's dropped just one set, and that came in her streak-snapping win over US Open champion Aryna Sabalenka. 

"I said it in the past, I didn't know how this year is going to look like, if I will play, if I will not play, what my level is going to be," said Muchova, who missed 10 months of action after the 2023 US Open due to injury. "Making a final here, it's just so nice. Such a nice feeling."

Their playing history is confined to a three-week, high-stakes period last summer when Gauff won twice -- in the Cincinnati final and the US Open semifinals.

“Everybody thinks the final, you’re so close,” Gauff said. “But you’re not. You’re so far away.”

WTA Insider Courtney Nguyen and Greg Garber make the case for the two finalists.

The case for Gauff

Last year, Gauff arrived in Beijing for her tournament debut at the China Open riding the peak of confidence. She had just won three of her last four tournaments, including her first WTA 500 at Washington D.C., her first WTA 1000 at Cincinnati, and her first Grand Slam title at the US Open. She proceeded to make the semifinals in her first try.

This year was the other side of the coin. Her summer of struggles, culminating in a US Open title defense that ended in the Round of 16, led to a slip outside the Top 5 on the PIF WTA Rankings for the first time in a year. 

As a result, Gauff went out of her way to make it known her expectations were low in Beijing. After splitting with Brad Gilbert, she was in the infancy of a new coaching set-up, adding Matt Daly to her team. She called it a "practice week" in some interviews and "an early pre-season" in others. 

And yet, in the face of her doubts and, at times, scratchy level, Gauff's grit has booked her a spot in her first final since -- if you can believe it -- January. Beijing has been further proof that the one thing you can always count on from Gauff is her ability to compete.

To make a WTA 1000 final without your best stuff? That's the stuff that builds confidence.

"I'm happy to be in the final," Gauff said after coming from a set and a break down to beat Paula Badosa in the semifinals. "Like I said, I wasn't expecting it.

"Has this week been like my best tennis? In moments, yeah. I think today I reached some levels where I was playing my best tennis. Obviously that's not the case for the whole match. That's tennis, that's life."

Once she gets a few wins under her belt, Gauff is near automatic in finals. Still just 20, she has an outstanding 7-1 record in Hologic WTA Tour level finals. That sole loss came in the 2022 Roland Garros final to the inevitable-on-clay Iga Swiatek.

On Sunday, Gauff will try to become the youngest Beijing champion since Caroline Wozniacki in 2010. The numbers are on her side. She's 4-0 in sets against Muchova and has beaten the crafty Czech in a WTA 1000 final. That came last summer in Cincinnati, where Gauff rolled to a 6-3, 6-4 win.

 -- Courtney Nguyen

The case for Muchova

Consider, for a moment, the heavy lifting Muchova has already put in. On Friday, she took down World No.2  Sabalenka, the only woman to win two Grand Slam singles titles this year.

On Saturday, she beat No.7 Zheng Qinwen, who was playing to another sellout crowd at the China National Tennis Center. Muchova never let the crowd of 15,000 -- or Zheng, for that matter -- into the match.

There’s nothing to suggest she won’t finish the job against Gauff and defeat her third consecutive Top 10 opponent. She could become the only player in two decades at the China Open to achieve that.

This, after undergoing career-threatening wrist surgery and wondering if she’d ever regain her elite level of play.

“I think she’s one of the best players on tour,” Gauff said. “She just had some unlucky breaks with injuries. But it’s good to see her back healthy. That’s going to be a tough matchup. She’s dangerous.”

Indeed she is, as evidenced by her tidy win over Zheng.

Muchova served impeccably, winning 42 of 57 points. She won all 10 of her service games and saved the only break opportunity Zheng had. Muchova has won 49 of her 55 service games this fortnight.

At the same time, she won 17 of Zheng’s 28 second-serve points. Muchova was aggressive, stepping up sometimes five or six feet inside the baseline and taking the ball exceptionally early. That's a strategy that will be effective against Gauff.

Muchova loves this surface; she has won 12 of 14 matches this year on hard courts. Her creativity and on-the-fly decisions should keep her in the game against Gauff, one of the tour's best defenders.

“I’m glad I’ve been here as long as I have,” Muchova said in her on-court interview.

And now, she’ll be around for another day -- and a chance for a second career title, her first since 2019 Seoul.

-- Greg Garber