Week 2 in Beijing: Pegula's big chance; underdogs aim to disrupt field

No.6 and No7. seeds Emma Navarro and Barbora Krejcikova lost their opening matches at the China Open. World No.1 Iga Swiatek, along with Elena Rybakina and Danielle Collins, never even made it to Beijing.

Hey, Jessica Pegula, do you sense an opening?

“Yeah,” she said a few days ago. “Because Iga and a lot of top players have dropped out, that’s a chance for other girls who maybe aren’t ranked as high to pick up those points that they’re not going to get.

“We’ve seen several times people come out of nowhere and do really well.”

Soon afterward, maybe because she spoke it into existence, Pegula found herself in a wild tiebreak with No.32 Veronika Kudermetova. Ultimately, Pegula survived 6-7 (9), 6-1, 6-2, but this kind of chaos makes Week 2 at the China Open a compelling watch, where 16 players remain.

Beijing: Scores | Order of Play | Draws

With the WTA Finals in Riyadh looming only one month away, the scramble to qualify is now officially on. There are a number of players in the mix who will take heart from recent history.

Three years ago, Anett Kontaveit was ranked No.30 on Sept. 20 when play opened in Ostrava. She won the title there, without dropping a set with victories over Paula Badosa, Belinda Bencic, Petra Kvitova and Maria Sakkari. Kontaveit reached the quarterfinals at the COVID-delayed Indian Wells, then won back-to-back titles in Moscow and Cluj-Napoca. That took her to No.9 position, and when Ashleigh Barty withdrew, she was into the field at Guadalajara.

In 2023, Caroline Garcia was ranked at No.48 in mid-July and put together a dizzying summer run, taking the crown in Warsaw, qualifying in Cincinnati, winning the title, and reaching the semifinals at the US Open before losing to Ons Jabeur. Garcia wound up the year-end champion in Fort Worth.

So, even at this late date, anything is possible. Here are some other things to watch for in Week 2 at the China Open.

The PIF Race to the WTA Finals is … wide open

OK, a quick recap: Swiatek and Aryna Sabalenka are already in and Krejcikova, as the Wimbledon champion, has a great shot. Rybakina, Jasmine Paolini, Jessica Pegula and Coco Gauff are in good position to qualify for Riyadh. Navarro and Collins, currently No.7 and No.8, are vulnerable.

Here, in order, are the next five players still alive in the fourth round of the China Open: Zheng Qinwen, Anna Kalinskaya, Paula Badosa, Madison Keys and Mirra Andreeva. With a deep run here and/or the following week in Wuhan any of them could vault into contention.

Three for the show

While Tuesday’s Round of 16 matchup between No.4 seed Coco Gauff and unseeded Naomi Osaka is the headliner, here’s a trio of compelling, all-seeded matches we’re also looking forward to:

No.2 Jessica Pegula vs. No.15 Paula Badosa: It’s the World No.3 versus the former No.2. Pegula has a 3-0 head-to-head advantage, but the last time they met -- the recent semifinals in Cincinnati -- it went three sets.

No.5 Zheng Qinwen vs. No.34 Amanda Anisimiova: Zheng defeated Nadia Podoroska 6-3, 6-2, while Anisimova was a 7-6 (1), 6-4 upset winner over No.9 Daria Kasatkina. Their only previous meeting, in the first round of the 2024 US Open, went to Zheng.

No.1 Aryna Sabalenka vs. No.18 Madison Keys: Sabalenka was a 6-2, 6-2 winner over Ashlyn Krueger, and Keys beat No.13 Beatriz Haddad Maia 6-3, 6-3. Sabalenka has won three of their four matches, but Keys is in exceptional form.

The longshots

Zhang Shuai came into the China Open at No.595 in the PIF WTA Rankings, saddled with a staggering losing streak of 24 matches. She’s now won three straight and faces No.23 seed Magdalena Frech for a spot in the quarterfinals.

“The big difference for me is the court, the surface, very different,” Zhang said. “At China Open, this court I think like Philippe Chatrier for Rafa. When I’m on this court, I have everything. Because I grew up from Tianjin, Beijing, I play this hard court more than 20 years every day.”

The wild card from China is the third player ranked outside the Top 500 this season to make the fourth round at a WTA 1000, along with Osaka and Angelique Kerber.

Meanwhile, Yuliia Starodubtseva, a 24-year-old from Ukraine, has been living on the edge all season long. She managed to qualify for all four Grand Slams in singles.

“It feels like you’re entering a new style of life, to be honest,” she said at Roland Garros. “Because you’re in last 128 in the world right now. You’re in the tournament, playing in the same draw with the best players.”

And now, the player who is No.115 in the rankings, is into the last 16 at the China Open -- her first such result in a WTA 1000 event. She defeated Laura Siegemund, Katerina Siniakova and Elina Avanesyan.

Next up for Zhang: No.10 Anna Kalinskaya.

Here comes Karolina Muchova (again)

The 28-year-old from the Czech Republic is healthy again -- and terrorizing opponents. She won five straight matches at the US Open, before running into Pegula in the semifinals.

Muchova wasn’t sure if her newfound confidence would travel well across the world to Asia, but look at her three matches in Beijing. She defeated:

• Anna Blinkova 6-1, 6-1 in 62 minutes
• Yuan Yafan 6-3, 6-1
• Jaqueline Cristian 6-1, 6-3

Her fourth-round opponent, Cristina Bucsa, is ranked No.79. They have never played.

Another Italian job?

The top-seeded team of Gabriela Dabrowski and Erin Routliffe are the ones to beat in doubles, but watch out for those pesky Italians.

Sara Errani and Jasmine Paolini, the gold medalists in Paris, are the No.5 seeds --and the only team from the Olympic podium in the field. There’s some opportunities in the draw, with the loss of the No.2 seeds Siniakova and Taylor Townsend (to Lyudmyla Kichenok and Marta Kostyuk) and No.3 Caroline Dolehide and Desirae Krawczyk (Beatriz Haddad Maia and Laura Siegemund).

Red, white and not-so blue

Four players from the United States are into the fourth round -- 25 percent of the survivors: No.2 Jessica Pegula, No.4 Coco Gauff, No.18 Madison Keys and No.34 Amanda Anisimova.

Four other countries, including China and Poland, have two players in the sweet 16.