Navratilova's US Open preview: Can Gauff, Swiatek, Sabalenka deliver?

There are so many questions, so much at stake in the season’s fourth and final Grand Slam tournament.

Can Coco Gauff defend her title at this 57^th women’s US Open, where play begins Monday? Will World No.1 Iga Swiatek continue her dominant season and win her second major of the season -- and her second US Open in three years? Or will Aryna Sabalenka continue her hot streak and capture her second Grand Slam of 2024?

US Open: Scores | Draw | Order of play

In a larger context, who will solidify their place at the WTA Finals in Riyad, Saudi Arabia? Swiatek is the only player qualified for the November year-end event, with Americans Gauff, Jessica Pegula, Danielle Collins and Emma Navarro currently occupying the last four spots. The next dozen players in the PIF Race are within 800 points and still very much in contention.

There are more than a handful of first-round matches not to be believed.

A few statistical morsels to whet your appetite for the coming matches:

• Bianca Andreescu, at 12-2, (.857) holds the best winning percentage in women’s singles at the US Open in the Open Era among active players with more than 10 matches. 
• No one has hit more winners (409) and converted more break points (80) in the three Grand Slam events this year than Jasmine Paolini. Andreescu and Paolini meet in the first round.
• Elena Rybakina is the leader in aces, with 85.
• Three active players have reached multiple US Open finals: Naomi Osaka (2-0), Caroline Wozniacki (0-2), Victoria Azarenka (0-3).

One more tantalizing teaser, your projected quarterfinals:

Top half

No.1 Iga Swiatek vs. No.6 Jessica Pegula

No.4 Elena Rybakina vs. No.5 Jasmine Paolini

Bottom half

No.2 Aryna Sabalenka vs. No.7 Zheng Qinwen

No.3 Coco Gauff vs. No.8 Barbora Krejcikova

OK, let’s get to some of the storylines with analysis from 18-time Grand Slam champion Martina Navratilova:

Elena Rybakina struggled with her serve in Cincinnati. she had 20 aces and 17 double faults in a loss to Leylah Fernandez, a match that saw her squander a big lead and two match points. Can she turn it around in New York?

Navratilova: That’s the biggest thing for her -- staying healthy. Normally, players get injured, but she’s been sick. If she can stay healthy, then you can build. But when you’re sick or injured you go back to neutral. And then you finally get above neutral -- and you get another setback. You’re always treading water, so you’re not moving forward and that gets frustrating. Emotionally, that beats you up -- it takes a lot of energy to do that. The positive: Sometimes it takes the pressure off because the expectations go lower.  

Iga Swiatek, an overwhelming favorite at the Paris Olympics, came home with the bronze medal. She reached the finals last week in Cincinnati but lost to Aryna Sabalenka. On the other hand, no currently active player has a better winning percentage -- 79-17, .823) -- in the Slams. Can she win her second title in New York in three years?

Navratilova: Of course she can. I mean, for Iga, the only person who can really hit her off the court is Sabalenka. Rybakina, maybe on grass, but not on hard courts. Iga’s forehand on the hard court really pays off, so that levels the playing field against Rybakina. Against Sabalenka, Iga has better tools to deal with her, to neutralize her, than anybody else. She’s been working on her serve, getting more free points on that. I think the Olympics was just way too much pressure because she was such a favorite on the clay, and that can play games with your brain. So I wouldn’t worry about the Olympic result that much.

Aryna Sabalenka won the Cincinnati title without dropping a set. She likes these fast hard courts and appears ready to take the next step after losing last year’s final to Gauff. Sabalenka could become the first woman to win the season’s two hard-court majors in the same year since Angelique Kerber in 2016. In your mind, is she the favorite coming in based on recent form?

Navratilova: Yup. For sure. Last year’s final might have been the worst match Sabalenka’s played in any big match, and she will have learned her lesson -- and will be extremely motivated. She still has some confidence from getting to the finals, winning the Australian Open and Cincinnati. She’s fit -- and I think a key factor is that she didn’t play the Olympics. So she’s fresher than everybody else. No scar tissue from Paris. Swiatek expended that energy, and so did Zheng Qinwen. Sabalenka will be chomping at the bit, for sure.

What do you make of gold medalist Zheng Qinwen’s chances?

Navratilova: Zheng will be confident, but she expended a lot of energy playing in Paris. She was so impressive at the Olympics. Her game translates nicely to clay, but it seems like it should be best on hard courts. High balls bouncing shoulder high aren’t a problem for her. And she’s probably the second-biggest hitter after Sabalenka. Watch out.

Jessica Pegula won the title in Toronto and reached the final in Cincinnati. She won nine of 10 matches in a span of two weeks and is looking to become only the fourth woman to reach the finals at the Canadian Open, Cincinnati and the US Open, following Rosie Casals (1970), Evonne Goolagong Cawley (1973) and Serena Williams (2013). Can Pegula make a deep run and solidify her spot at the year-end championships?

Navratilova: She has the game to beat anybody. But in the majors, when you need that little bit extra, she hasn’t shown that yet. When you get nervous, it’s nice to have something that you can go to -- a big forehand or a big serve. Jessica’s just such a steady player and so phenomenally consistent. We’ll see if she can find it. She can smoke the ball when she really puts her mind to it. She’s just going to have to red-line it a little bit. [Coach] Mark [Knowles] is such a good tactician that he can develop some more slices, drop shots, give her more variety where she can surprise people. Maybe that can be her weapon.

Who are your dark-horse picks?

Navratilova: Mirra Andreeva is really making her mark. She’s seeded No.21 at the Open -- that’s crazy -- how fast did that happen? And she’s still only 17. And her sister [Erika, 20] not far behind. She’s got a lot of confidence after almost beating Iga in Cincinnati [losing in the quarterfinals in three sets]. 

Leylah Fernandez beat Rybakina at Cincinnati, reaching the quarterfinals before losing to Pegula. She’s been playing better and should be riding a good wave. This is her best tennis since she was in the [2021 US Open] finals. 

Danielle Collins had a great first half of the year. She’s looking to finish strong.

And don’t discount [two-time champion] Naomi Osaka -- although she’s got a barnburner in the first round, against Jelena Ostapenko.