The hydrangeas have delivered their usual riot of color, the pansies are out of control, climbing roses and clinging ivy are everywhere. It’s blooming business as usual at the All England Club, where those epic flora displays accent the pristine grass courts.
So why does Saturday’s ladies’ final have such a pronounced red-clay Roland Garros vibe?
When the fortnight began, No.7 seed Jasmine Paolini and No.31 Barbora Krejcikova were afterthoughts, more famous for their exploits in Paris. Krejcikova, the 2021 French Open champion, was the only player not named Iga Swiatek to win a title the past five years. Last month, Paolini reached the Roland Garros finals before falling to the World No.1.
Clay is the slowest of surfaces, requiring patience, fitness and a degree of creativity. Grass? It’s lightning-fast, like playing on your dining room table. Power, first-strike tennis, usually wins out. So how did Paolini and Krejcikova make that massive pivot from “clay court specialists” and win six consecutive matches on this slick surface?
Wimbledon 2024: Scores | Draws | Order of play
By adapting their games. Paolini, whose movement is elite, managed to find just enough punch in her shots to take out big-hitting Donna Vekic in the first semifinal. Krejcikova, with guile and a jacked-up forehand and serve managed to neutralize Elena Rybakina’s usually lethal serve in the second. Krejcikova came into the tournament 7-9 and prevailed over the 2022 Wimbledon champion. Thrilling stuff, really.
“I started to get in a zone -- and I didn’t want to leave the zone,” a breathless Krejcikova said afterward. “Wow … I’m in the final.”
Said Paolini, no less amazed, “This match I will really remember forever. I think the last months have been crazy for me.”
It was the first time in two decades that both women’s singles semifinals went three sets -- and both 28-year-old winners came back from a set down. Paolini and Krejcikova will always have Paris, but they’d like to add Wimbledon to their rapidly growing resumes.
What’s going to happen? Hard to know in advance because the only match they ever played was a qualifier six years ago at the Australian Open. Paolini could become the first Italian woman to win Wimbledon. Krejcikova would make back-to-back Wimbledon titles for the Czech Republic.
Courtney Nguyen and Greg Garber make the case for each:
Advantage, Paolini
Has anyone ever come further, faster than the irrepressible Italian?
In six previous appearances, Paolini had won a single match here -- seven years ago, in qualifying. And now, in the span of 11 days, she’s six-for-six.
Widen out the lens to major matches and the numbers are even more astonishing. Before the year began, Paolini had won four of 20 Grand Slam singles contests. The win over Vekic raised her 2024 major mark to 15-2 -- more victories than any other woman. Ranked No.30 as the year began, Paolini is projected to move into the No.5.
This is no accident. On her way to the final at Roland Garros, Paolini beat Bianca Andreescu and Rybakina, both major champions. In one of those quirks tennis delights in, she beat them both again at Wimbledon. It’s happened so quickly, Paolini hasn’t had time to tighten up.
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“Two Grand Slam finals in a row was crazy to believe, I think, no?” she told reporters. “I’m also surprised how at the moment, until now in this moment, I’m living this. But I feel also relaxed. I’m the same person. I’m doing the same things.
“I don’t want to say more because maybe Saturday I’m going to be shaking.”
There is simply no precedent for what we’re seeing here, Courtney.
Jasmine Paolini, the first Italian woman to reach a #Wimbledon singles final 🇮🇹 pic.twitter.com/4N7zWOGEBs
— Wimbledon (@Wimbledon) July 11, 2024
In the 50th year of the WTA rankings system, no player ranked outside the Top 5 has ever reached the finals at Roland Garros and Wimbledon in the same calendar year.
To come back from a set down and a break in the third two different times … well, that’s a brand of belief that’s going to be hard to shake.
For Paolini, the goal will not change.
“To try to serve well -- today I didn’t, I have to say to try,” she said. “To return as many balls as possible, and to control the point. On the grass is tough to defend. So the goal Saturday will be that one for sure in terms of game, of the tactic.” -- Greg Garber
Advantage, Krejcikova
I don't pretend to know much, but here’s what I do know.
I know I did not pick Barbora Krejcikova to make the final.
And I know that, when it comes to pulling off out-of-nowhere runs at big tournaments, Barbora Krejcikova is second to none.
Exhibit A: Krejcikova was ranked No.33 when she kicked off her 2021 Roland Garros campaign. En route to the final, she knocked off one Top 10 player and battled through two tight three-set duels. Then facing an opponent she had never played at the tour level before, she bested Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova to capture her first major title.
From June: Insider Podcast: Krejcikova's road to recovery and passion for tennis
Exhibit B: Ranked No.30 at Dubai last year, she pulled off a remarkable title run. Krejcikova saved match points to beat No.8 Daria Kasatkina in the second round and then just kept going. She beat No.2 Aryna Sabalenka and No.3 Jessica Pegula to make the final and then dominated No.1 Iga Swiatek in the final. She became just the fourth player in Hologic WTA Tour history to win a title by beating the top three players in the world.
Better late than never 😉🌙
— wta (@WTA) July 11, 2024
Goodnight from #Wimbledon finalist @BKrejcikova! pic.twitter.com/0vfc4TiGj6
All that is to say: When Krejcikova gets into the business of tournaments, watch out. Since the start of 2021 Roland Garros, she’s won six of her nine finals.
And so here we are, at another big tournament, where Krejcikova has come in ranked outside the Top 30 and upended a draw one win at a time. Krejcikova's game is one for the purists, the technique-obsessed who marvel at effortless power and superior court IQ. To unleash that tennis, Krejcikova has to be healthy and full of unwavering belief in her instincts.
She sorted out the health issue after a two-month injury break in the spring. It’s taken her three months to find the confidence that brings clarity to her game, but she's found it on the very surface that doesn't let you think too much. It rewards instinct, and maybe that's why Wimbledon is fast becoming Krejcikova's best Slam. Her 12 wins at SW19 is one short of the 13 she’s posted in Melbourne.
Krejcikova's game is built for this stuff. It's also built to unwind Paolini's strengths. The grass rewards Krejcikova's flatter style, allowing her serve to skid through the box and her groundstroke to knife through the court. She has the best backhand slice since Ashleigh Barty, both in hits variability and bite, and her bona fides at the net need no mention.
Add it all up and this is set up perfectly for a Krejcikova. -- Courtney Nguyen