Advantage Swiatek or Sabalenka? Making the case for the Rome finalists

ROME -- It’s happening again, it’s a happening again -- No.1 versus No.2 in the final for the second Hologic WTA Tour 1000 tournament in a row.

Iga Swiatek faces off against Aryna Sabalenka in Saturday’s Internazionali BNL d'Italia championship match, just two weeks after they met in Madrid’s electric final. They are only the second pair to play each other in consecutive WTA 1000 finals since the format’s introduction in 2009; Serena Williams and Maria Sharapova went at it 11 years ago in Miami and Madrid.

Maybe Swiatek and Sabalenka know a little something about European red clay, eh? Sabalenka will be looking to avenge her loss in a third-set tiebreak in the 5 p.m. local (11 a.m. ET) final at Foro Italico.

“Honestly, I don’t think it makes sense to think about these two matches as one continuing story because totally different tournament,” Swiatek said of the Madrid final. “Different week, as well. It’s not like it’s going to be the same.”

It’s the fourth meeting on clay between Swiatek and Sabalenka as World No.1 and 2 -- equaling Chris Evert and Martina Navratilova for the most meetings on the surface in the past 40 years as the WTA's top-ranked players.

And if it’s starting to feel vaguely familiar, consider this: The pairing is the most-played WTA-level final in the past 10 years, equaling Angelique Kerber versus Karolina Pliskova with five.

How will this play out? Greg Garber and Courtney Nguyen hash it out:

Advantage, Swiatek

We have to stop meeting like this, Courtney.

Two weeks ago, when we extolled the virtues of the Madrid finalists, you broke down Swiatek’s advantages, and I took Sabalenka. Suffice to say, Swiatek prevailed -- but it required that rousing third-set tiebreak.

Now the shoe is on the other foot. I’ve got Swiatek in this one and you can gaze into the glass half-full of reasons that Sabalenka can reverse this trend. I’m not so sure she can.

Madrid, with its thin air and flying forehands, is the perfect court for Sabalenka. She was the champion there a year ago and came close to defending. In Rome, it’s been a different story. This is Sabalenka’s sixth appearance in the Eternal City -- and she’s gone three-and-out on three occasions. 

This is her best effort here, but the head-to-head record (7-3) suggests it will go Swiatek’s way. They’ve played five times on red clay in the past three years, and Swiatek has won four of them -- all of them either in Stuttgart, Madrid or in Rome -- four in finals.

Here is yet another chance for Swiatek to extend her already impressive lead in the rankings. And there’s this: Swiatek has never lost a final here in Rome; she’s 2-0, with titles in 2021-22.

“I’ll try to, like, be in the present, not really think about Madrid,” Swiatek said. “Obviously, I need to analyze this match in terms of the tactics. Not too much, as well, because it was pretty tight. I think we both could have done some things better. It’s a totally different story. I’ll just focus on being present.”

If you’re even thinking about leaning toward Sabalenka, here’s another statistic from the folks at Opta Stats Perform: Swiatek has appeared in 30 WTA 1000 tournaments -- and reached 12 finals. That’s 40 percent, better than the next best, Serena Williams (18-for-49, .367). Focus that down to just clay events, and it’s a smoking 11-for-19 (.579).

One more: Swiatek is now 12-5 on clay against opponents ranked among the Top 10. That works out to .706 -- only Hall of Fame players Chris Evert, Steffi Graf and Justine Henin did better (minimum of 10 wins). -- Greg Garber

Advantage, Sabalenka

As you so artfully point out, Greg, I was in your shoes two weeks ago.

Sabalenka came into that Madrid final, in conditions that suited her, already a two-time champion and bidding for a third. There’s a heavy load that comes with trying to do something you’ve done before. And now, as you said, the dirt-crusted shoes are on the other foot. Swiatek is the two-time champion bidding for a third. She’s the favorite without a doubt. Everything about Rome suits her. 

This despite the fact Sabalenka was hoarse and bedridden when she arrived in Rome, where she had to battle back a cold throughout her dodgy early rounds. Then she picked up a back injury against Elina Svitolina in the Round of 16 and genuinely thought about retiring. She fought on, brushed off three match points against her, and won. And she’s been swinging like she’s playing with house money since. 

One of the weapons I think could spin the match Sabalenka’s way is her drop shot. It’s been a magnificent for her in Rome. Yulia Putintseva showed how effective it could be against Swiatek’s baseline position. If Sabalenka can stay disciplined and unleash that shot at the right times, that could be the difference-maker.

All of this bodes well for Sabalenka on Saturday because, as opposed to two weeks ago, she has nothing to lose. She’s the challenger, and I believe she relishes that role. And while Swiatek says she hasn’t really thought about that Madrid match since, Sabalenka admits it still stings. Lessons were immediately learned -- swing big, go for shots, don’t back down in the big moments. We saw that in that late-night drama against Svitolina. 

“I saw somewhere she said she’s not really thinking about me when she’s practicing,” Sabalenka said, “but I personally, after so many tough matches that I lost against her, I’m always trying to improve, I’m always trying to get better. So next time I play against her I have something else to bring on court and to put her under a bit more pressure and see how many chances I’m gonna have.” -- Courtney Nguyen