Miami quarterfinals: Will home-court advantage favor Pegula, Collins?

MIAMI -- On Tuesday at the Miami Open, No.4 Elena Rybakina and three-time champion Victoria Azarenka each went the distance to book their spots in the final four. 

On Wednesday, we'll see who joins them. 

Coming off wins over Naomi Osaka and No.3 Coco Gauff, No.23 seed Caroline Garcia will face unseeded American Danielle Collins in the first quarterfinal of the day at 1 p.m. ET

Bidding to make her third consecutive Miami semifinal, No.5 Jessica Pegula will take on 14th seed Ekaterina Alexandrova in the second quarterfinal at 7 p.m. Alexandrova broke open the top half of the draw with an upset of World No.1 Iga Swiatek in the fourth round. 

Here's how the two matches shape up:

[14] Ekaterina Alexandrova vs. [5] Jessica Pegula

Head-to-head: Pegula leads 1-0. 

Making quarterfinals week in and week out has formed the bedrock of Pegula's Top 5 position over the past two seasons, but even she admits nothing lasts forever. After a 2023 season that featured the heaviest schedule of any player in the Top 10 and a furious finish that netted her a title in Seoul and the biggest final of her career at the WTA Finals in Cancun, Pegula leaned into a relaxing offseason. If that meant being undercooked at the start of the year, so be it.

But Pegula wasn't prepared for the stress and anxiety that flooded over her after her sub-par start. While she was struggling to string together wins, the other members of the Top 5 were winning tournaments. 

"It compounded and I was kind of drowning, I was just trying to stay afloat," Pegula said. "I spoke to players, ex-champions and they're like you can't keep going forever. You have to take a second to reset." 

Pegula adapted to her circumstances by taking a de facto preseason in February. She pulled out of the Middle East swing, changed coaches and tried to reset for the year. The benefits were seen immediately. When she returned, she made her first semifinal of the year in San Diego and is now into the Miami quarterfinals. Her 7-6(1), 6-3 win over Emma Navarro was her first Top 20 win of the year. 

"That win was really important for me, honestly," Pegula said. "I think this week and how I approached this week was really going to dictate how my year was going to go. Maybe it's true, maybe it's not, but I think mentally I wasn't really coming in a great mental state. 

"But I know I can play really well here and I like the conditions so I wanted to try and turn it around this week."

Pegula wasn't shaken by her second-round loss at Indian Wells. But a poor result in Miami would have shaken her for some time. 

"I play well here, I have good results here, let's try and turn it around," Pegula said. "Indian Wells, OK, I didn't play great, but I honestly never really play that great there, but this week I like how it is. Let's try and use that as a positive to get myself going this year and to get some matches in and get some confidence back. It's been nice that I've been able to touch on that this week.

"This week I'm already happier. I feel back to myself, I'm competing, I have a good attitude, I don't look like I'm miserable on the court. I'm in good shape and I'm playing well. 

Pegula has made the semifinals in the last two editions of Miami and she's looking to become the first player to make three consecutive Miami semifinals since Serena Williams. She's won her only meeting with Alexandrova, but that came over two years ago on Rome's red clay. 

Alexandrova pulled off the upset of the tournament one round earlier, beating Swiatek off the court with a 6-4, 6-2 win in the fourth round. With her first serve and forehand firing, Alexandrova blew 31 winners past Swiatek to earn the biggest win of her career. 

"She's really dangerous," Pegula said. "Big hitter, big serve, I think she would like these conditions. It's always tough to play someone who is a big server who can get hot and hit winners." 

Alexandrova is bidding to make her second WTA 1000 semifinal, after making her first on clay in Madrid in 2021. If she can best Pegula, it will be the first time she has notched two Top 5 wins in a single tournament. 

[23] Caroline Garcia vs. Danielle Collins

Head-to-head: Collins leads 3-0.

Like Pegula, Collins is rediscovering her best tennis in humid comfort of Miami. The St. Petersburg, Florida native made her breakout run in 2018 as a 93rd-ranked qualifier, clearing her path all the way to the semifinals. The run included a 6-2, 6-3 win over her idol Venus Williams in the quarterfinals.

"Playing against somebody I looked up to and grew up watching on TV, it was so surreal to play her in real life, to see on the other side of the net," Collins said. "To have gotten to play against her in the middle of her career was pretty special. I had a lot of great support that tournament."

"I'm from Florida so it's always nice playing in your home state. I'm very used to these wild conditions, with it being hot or rainy. I play really well on tropical fast hard courts and this is my bread and butter."

 Collins has been outstanding this year at Hard Rock Stadium. After losing the first set of her first-round match against Bernarda Pera, Collins is barely losing games. 

Her set scores since: 6-1, 6-1, 6-2, 6-2, 6-1, 6-2, 6-3, 6-2. Those last two sets came against 19th seed Sorana Cirstea in the Round of 16, a win that put Collins into her second WTA 1000 quarterfinal of the year. 

"I came off a bit of a disappointing Indian Wells with a back injury," Collins said. "It's nice that I'm not dealing with that now. I feel like a lot of the hard work from earlier in the year, the matches in the Middle East, have allowed me to get settled in the matches and have a lot of confidence."

As she eyes a second Miami semifinal, Collins brings an undefeated record against Garcia into Wednesday. Even better, she's 6-0 in sets against the Frenchwoman, who is coming off back-to-back big wins over Naomi Osaka and Coco Gauff. 

"On the practice courts in Indian Wells after the loss against Maria [Sakkari], I was a bit down," Garcia said. And then we did some good practice, we saw she played well. So my team was, like, You see? It was not that bad. 

"It's little details. But obviously we arrive here with some good practice. My game was there. I just had to go for it and play my matches. I have been able to do it one match at a time."