Unseeded & unscripted: Advantage Paolini or Kalinskaya in the Dubai final?

The Hologic WTA Tour 1000s, with their ultra-quality draws, have belonged almost exclusively to the best of the best. The seven winners of last year’s nine events have all had time as a Top 3 player and six of them have won at least one Grand Slam singles title. 

How then to explain the drama unfolding at the Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships, where two unseeded players will meet in Saturday’s final that will constitute the most important match of their lives?

Anna Kalinskaya, a qualifier playing her eighth match in nine days, upset World No.1 Iga Swiatek in the semifinals, her third win against a Top 10 player in three days. In more than 15 years of WTA 1000-level events, she’s only the second qualifier to reach a final.

Jasmine Paolini, too, has been shredding, knocking out No.8 seed Maria Sakkari, No.11 Beatriz Haddad Maia, Leylah Fernandez and, in the semifinals, Sorana Cirstea.

It’s a first final at the WTA 1000-level for both players.

Courtney Nguyen and Greg Garber break down this unlikely meeting:

Advantage, Kalinskaya

Sometimes the draw breaks in your favor. And sometimes, you break the draw.

How can you argue against the numbers Kalinskaya has put up this week in Dubai? Ranked No.40 at the start of the tournament, the 25-year-old eased through two qualifying matches and has beaten three of the best players of the first two months. She knocked off three Top 10 players in succession, starting with No.9 Jelena Ostapenko -- who had not lost to anyone not named Victoria Azarenka this year -- then earned her first Top 5 win, over No.3 Coco Gauff. She saved her best for the semifinals, where she handed No.1 Iga Swiatek her second loss of the year.

Those trio of wins brings her season tally of Top 10 wins to four. That's more than she had in her entire career before this year.

And let's dispel the myth that this is just a player going on a one-week hot streak. Kalinskaya came into the season ranked No.80 and was a dismal 4-13 in her career at the majors. She had never won a main-draw match in Melbourne. Yet there she was, battling alongside the elite eight in the quarterfinals. One month later and she's into her first WTA final.

Kalinskaya will leave Dubai inside the Top 30 with a new career-high ranking.

It's new territory for Kalinskaya, but if she's supposed to be rattled by her ascent, she's shown zero signs. That was clear in the semifinals, where she came from 4-2 down in the first set to coolly dispatch Swiatek. As Swiatek mounted a comeback in the second, saving a pair of match points and closing the gap on the scoreboard, Kalinskaya fended her off as if she'd done it before.

One thing she has done before is beat Paolini in a high-stakes match. In January, with a spot in their first Grand Slam quarterfinal on the line, Kalinskaya won 6-4, 6-2.

What makes her so dangerous? Let Paolini explain it herself:

"I think she's moving really well and she's playing really deep," Paolini said. "When I played against her in Australian Open, she was also returning really deep, and I couldn't start the point well. She was really also consistent, not many mistakes.

"If you want to beat her, I guess you have to play deep and to try to do not too many mistakes, but also to try to hit winners, to hit the ball, to push her away from the court because if not, she's going to move you."

That's precisely what Kalinskaya did to Swiatek on Friday night. If Kalinskaya repeats the performance, she'll be the first unseeded champion at a WTA 1000 event since Caroline Garcia in Cincinnati two years ago. -- Courtney Nguyen

The case for Paolini

Just when it looked like Cirstea was going to pull off another ridiculous comeback, Paolini stood firm. Down a set and 4-2, Cirstea came back to serve for the second set at 6-5. But Paolini fought off five set points in a long game that forced a tiebreak. After erasing a sixth set point, Paolini converted her second match point for a 6-2, 7-6 (6) win.

“I gave you a little drama at the end of the match,” she told spectators afterward, referring to the 77-minute second set. “At the end of the week, if you told me I’d be Top 20, I would say you are crazy. Match by match, I’m feeling good, so … let’s see.”

What you’ll see, Courtney, is a wonderfully complete player, creating surprising angles, particularly on the backhand side. And this week she’s been utterly fearless with her dangerous forehand in the moments that matter.

Both players have played spectacular ball, but I’m sensing that Paolini will have a little more pep in her step come Saturday. Kalinskaya has to be feeling it after coming through qualifying. After being extended to three sets in the opening round, Paolini won three matches in straights -- and received a quarterfinal walkover when Elena Rybakina withdrew.

And while Kalinskaya got the best of her last month in Melbourne, Paolini fondly remembers her first (and only) WTA title that came three years ago in Portoroz, Slovenia. She defeated Kalinskaya in the Round of 16 (and Cirstea in the quarterfinals), so she’ll be channeling that feel-good vibe.

Here’s Kalinskaya’s scouting report on Paolini: “She runs very good. She fights every single ball. She’s very tricky. She has good hands. Of course, she has a boost of confidence I’m pretty sure. This year she’s doing great. She can surprise.”

There’s some intriguing symmetry at work here. When they met in the Round of 16 at the Australian Open, it was the furthest either player had been in a major. And now, for the second time in two months, they’re facing another life-changing collision.

“It’s just another match,” said Kalinskaya, who has been notably low key all week. “Let’s see what tomorrow brings.” -- Greg Garber