MADRID -- Iga Swiatek and Aryna Sabalenka continue to distance themselves from the field.
They are ranked No.1 and No.2 among Hologic WTA Tour players -- by a wide margin -- and have won the past two major singles titles. How do you put their dominance into context? On Thursday, in a WTA 1000 event, they took three of their four semifinal sets by a top-heavy score of 6-1.
Swiatek was a 6-1, 6-1 winner over Veronika Kudermetova, while Sabalenka defeated Maria Sakkari 6-4, 6-1. They’ll meet Saturday in what feels like an inevitable final of the Mutua Madrid Open at 6:30 p.m. local time (12:30 ET).
Head to Head
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Based on quality and quantity, it’s becoming one of the best rivalries in years. Some more context: This is only the third time in four decades that the No.1 and No.2 ranked players will face each other on clay for the second time in a single season. In 2013, it was Serena Williams and Maria Sharapova. Martina Navratilova and Chris Evert managed that feat in 1984.
“I really want to have this revenge,” Sabalenka said. “You always have to fight really, really hard against Iga. I’m ready for that.”
So the question is, who has the upper hand?
Advantage, Swiatek
It's fair to say Iga Swiatek's aura of invincibility is not the same as it was 12 months ago, when the World No.1 was in the middle of a 37-match winning streak and barely losing games, let alone matches.
Swiatek ousts Kudermetova to reach first Madrid final
Dating back to last October, Elena Rybakina and Barbora Krejcikova have both defeated Swiatek twice in a row, while Aryna Sabalenka has become a dominant force, with titles to start the year, including the Australian Open.
But order was restored in the Stuttgart final two weeks ago, when Swiatek and Sabalenka met for the first time in 2023. The match had its moments of high-octane intensity, but once Swiatek pulled away in the first set, the outcome never felt in doubt.
Swiatek has reasserted herself on clay. She's 9-0 this season and has won 46 out of her past 49 matches on the surface dating back to Roland Garros in 2020.
On Saturday against Sabalenka, expect a rinse and repeat of Stuttgart. -- Alex Macpherson
Advantage, Sabalenka
Two days after losing to Swiatek in the Stuttgart final, Sabalenka was sitting in the Madrid Open’s VIP club, not far from the dance floor and shimmering disco balls. She had already practiced and was clearly at ease speaking with a small media contingent.
Sabalenka surges past Sakkari into second Madrid final
“Really different,” Sabalenka said of the conditions in Madrid, “but I really like it.”
And that, Alex, is precisely why it’s possible to imagine a different result in Saturday’s final.
I know, I know the record shows that Swiatek has won more matches on clay (46) than any other woman since collecting that first French Open nearly three years ago. And that the head-to-head record belongs to Swiatek, 5-2. And, yes, that Sabalenka has lost all three of her previous matches on clay to Swiatek -- the 2022 and 2023 finals in Stuttgart and last year’s semifinal in Rome.
25 - Since Aryna Sabalenka's first top-10 win in Eastbourne 2018, she now has the most top-10 wins of any player: 25, surpassing Swiatek with 24. Power.#MMOPEN | @MutuaMadridOpen @WTA @WTA_insider pic.twitter.com/mtKT3gtS4Q
— OptaAce (@OptaAce) May 4, 2023
But it’s a completely different game in Madrid, one more suited to Sabalenka’s game. If she’s going to beat Swiatek on her favorite surface this year, the Caja Magica offers Sabalenka’s best chance. The court in Manolo Santana Stadium sits nearly 1,400 feet higher than Stuttgart’s; the thinner air accentuates Sabalenka’s more powerful groundstrokes and serve. In the semifinal against Sakkari, Sabalenka was averaging close to 80 miles per hour on her forehand, a number that compares favorably to most men.
Sabalenka finished her semifinal match in time to enjoy a massage and a nice dinner before Swiatek even got on the court.
While Swiatek, in only her second visit to Madrid, says she has been trying to figure out the conditions, Sabalenka is already a champion here. The three-set win two years ago over World No.1 Ashleigh Barty was a huge confidence-booster.
In Stuttgart, Sabalenka went for too much when slight openings appeared. This time, she says, she’s older -- she turned 25 on Friday -- and considerably wiser.
“I don’t have to rush things,” she said after defeating Sakkari. “I just have to wait for my opportunity and I just have to, yeah, take it and go for it.” -- Greg Garber
