Roundup: The key to Krejcikova's title and a breakdown of Swiatek's loss in the final

The first WTA 1000 event of the year is behind us.

At the Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships, Barbora Krejcikova returned to form with a statement win against Iga Swiatek, the world’s top-ranked player, in the final.  

Krejcikova said she played her best tennis all week, but more importantly spoke of the confidence she has in her game.

“I'm not missing and I'm playing winners,” she told reporters afterward. “I think that's what I start feeling. OK, this is the game, and I have to just keep going, just trying to stay aggressive and just go the right direction.”

Dubai reaction

• Week in Review: Krejcikova scores straight A's with win in Dubai
• Champions Corner: Behind Krejcikova's run to the Dubai title
• Krejcikova upsets Swiatek in Dubai to win first title of the year

Here’s our final take on Krejcikova and a handful of other water-cooler topics from Dubai:

What did you see in Barbora’s Krejcikova’s game that has again made her one of the most dangerous player on the singles circuit?

Alex Macpherson: There's much to admire aesthetically about Krejcikova's repertoire: the smoothness of her backhand swing, her touch at net. What makes it dangerous is how, when confident, she has clarity of purpose about how she puts it all together.

Krejcikova's approach to point construction reminds me of a snooker player clearing the table. She makes it look simple, but her shot selection is designed to consistently improve her court position and give herself the best possible openings. And she seems to think several steps ahead of anyone else. Once her opponent has realized what's happening, it's only to watch Krejcikova thudding another winner into open space.

Jason Juzwiak: Krejcikova was on the attack in the final, notably winning 13 of Swiatek’s 17 second-service points. Playing that boldly does not come out of nowhere -- it is a result of Krejcikova’s self-belief when she is on a hot streak.

When asked after the final why she was no longer near her career-high ranking of No.2, Krejcikova was matter-of-fact in her response: “Why? Because I was injured for four months last year.” If Krejcikova’s confidence results in more performances like the Dubai final, where she starts points on the front foot whenever she can, she will be a threat to win anywhere.

Courtney Nguyen: Confidence and belief. Krejcikova spoke extensively about feeling her run of bad luck change after saving four match points to defeat Daria Kasatkina in the second  round. Sometimes the difference is just feeling like maybe, just maybe, the deck isn't stacked against you. Buoyed by that, Krejcikova was able to unleash her tactical, fluid game, one that, when it's on, is incredibly difficult to unwind.

Greg Garber: Her poise under pressure against the World No.1 in their past two matches has been extraordinary. Back in October, Krejcikova came back from a set down against Swiatek in Ostrava by winning a second-set tiebreak.

And then when Swiatek saved five match points, Krejcikova converted the sixth -- with an ace. In Dubai, which required less than half the time, Krejcikova earned six break-point opportunities -- and converted five of them. Meanwhile, she saved four of six on her own serve.

Heading into the final, Iga Swiatek strung together one of the most dominant stretches we’ve seen in a while. What went wrong in the final?

Garber: She didn’t protect her serve. When she missed the first offering, Krejcikova pounced on the second. Swiatek lost 13 of 17 second-serve points, a 76-percent failure rate, which was unsustainable. At the same time, Swiatek was able to win only 57 percent of her first serves, while Krejcikova came in at 70.

Macpherson: The difference in the final was that Swiatek met a player who both has a higher peak and is a worse matchup for her than anyone else she's met since Australia. Swiatek alluded afterward to being ill in Dubai, and the signs that she was below par were certainly there in her scrappier-than-expected semifinal form.

But even setting that aside, the evidence of her head-to-head record with Krejcikova didn't point toward an easy win, or even a win at all. After all, Krejcikova had beaten her the last time they'd played and held match point the time before that.

Juzwiak: As others have noted, Swiatek wasn’t playing or feeling her best this past Saturday, but she was facing a determined Krejcikova anyway. With those two issues at play, the timing just wasn’t there for Swiatek to sweep through the Middle East swing undefeated. Instead, let’s take stock: a Doha title and a Dubai final is nothing to sniff at.

She basically matched her February results from a year ago, and we saw how the rest of last season turned out. She probably won’t win eight titles again, but years like 2022 are rare indeed. Swiatek is on the upswing after she left Australia disappointed, and things are bright again for the World No.1.

Nguyen: It's not a complicated answer: match-ups. Krejickova has the precise weapon set that has consistently found inroads against Swiatek. Krejickova had match points on her at Rome in 2021 and beat her in the incredible Ostrava final last fall. Krejcikova's flat game, precision serve and ability to hold her shots until the last second is a tough Rubik's Cube to solve.

Besides, sweeping Doha and Dubai is a historically tough task. There’s a reason only two players have ever done it. I wouldn’t be too worried about Swiatek.

Outside of the finalists in Dubai, which player impressed you the most?

Nguyen: I was heartened by what I saw from Karolina Muchova during the Middle East swing. Snake-bitten by injuries through her career, the former Australian Open semifinalist looked healthy and in full flow again. She came close to beating Caroline Garcia in Doha, then steamrolled Belinda Bencic in Doha. Unfortunately, Muchova had to withdraw ahead of her quarterfinal with an abdominal injury. Here's hoping it's not serious.

Garber: Muchova had a nice week. She won three matches before an abdominal injury forced to withdraw from a quarterfinal match with Jessica Pegula. Muchova handled Belinda Bencic 6-1, 6-4 in the Round of 16 -- and impressive feat. She jumped 35 spots in the Hologic WTA Tour rankings and is back up to No.77.

Macpherson: Tweener winners have been the rage this month on the WTA, and Muchova clearly wanted to join in. Her hot-shot magic was arguably the best of them all, and for three rounds she was back to her swashbuckling best.

Muchova's run to her first quarterfinal at this level or above since Wimbledon in 2021 was a reminder of how much she can bring to the top of the game. Sadly, her withdrawal with an ab injury was also a reminder that her body rarely allows her to show it for sustained periods of time.

Juzwiak: I’ll spotlight Madison Keys here, who dusted herself off after losing her 2022 Australian Open semifinal points and pulled herself back into the Top 20 with a quarterfinal run in Dubai. Keys won three straight-set matches in Dubai, including victories against Caroline Garcia and Victoria Azarenka.

She lost her serve only two times in those three wins before a respectable loss to Coco Gauff. It shows promise for Keys’ March, where she could reap big results on her favorite surface in her home country.

Looking ahead, which player currently in the Top 10 needs to have a strong showing over the next two events, at Indian Wells and the Miami Open?

Juzwiak: Maria Sakkari has picked up 11 match-wins this year, but she has been stymied before finals, including at Linz a couple weeks ago, where she was the only Top 10 player in the field.

Last week, Sakkari said the period after her Linz semifinal loss to Petra Martic was a “tough place,” and she “erased what happened last week, and I just felt like mentally I wasn't in a great place last week, like I didn't do the best I could.” Indian Wells would be a well-timed spot for Sakkari to reach another final, as she is defending runner-up points from last year.

Nguyen: It would be great to see No.4 Caroline Garcia post a big result during the Sunshine Double. She's come out on the wrong side of a few tight matches this season.

Garber: Garcia needs to capitalize on the momentum she created by winning the WTA Finals. She was a revelation in Fort Worth, finally believing in her ultra-aggressive game. She started 2023 well enough, winning eight of 10 matches -- beginning with a pair in United Cup competition, then reaching the fourth round of the Australian Open and the final in Lyon.

But Garcia lost that one to No.79-ranked Alycia Parks, split two matches in Doha (losing to Maria Sakkari) and fell in the first round of Dubai to Madison Keys. Last year, Garcia went 1-2 in the Sunshine Double -- a repeat effort this Top 10 player needs to avoid.

Macpherson: It feels like Daria Kasatkina's season is at a crossroads. The World No.8 has only a 4-6 record in 2023, despite reaching the Adelaide 2 final in January. Last year, her renaissance was underpinned by rediscovering a blend of offence and defense, but this year her game has tilted back toward relying on the latter.

Splitting from long-term coach Carlos Martínez has added further instability to her situation. But Kasatkina was still four match points up on Krejcikova this week. Kasatkina’s ability is still there, and it's not too late to turn around her trajectory.