Australian Open Day 6 preview: Sabalenka's serve key to turnaround

The serve is the only element of a tennis point that you can absolutely, positively command. Which, of course, is precisely what makes it so difficult.

“Everyone is saying that this is the easiest for sure because the ball is in your hand, and you control everything,” Aryna Sabalenka said the other day. “But, yeah, this is the hardest thing to fix, to be honest.”

There is a zen quality to the serve; you will only manage to succeed if you can manage yourself. This, Sabalenka knows better than most. A year ago, she led the Hologic WTA Tour with a staggering 428 double faults, 139 more than the next player and 179 more than her sixth-leading ace total. The last two, against Caroline Garcia in the championship match of the WTA Finals, cost her victory.

Australian Open: Scores | Draw | Order of play

This year, after some frenzied work and reflection, the early returns (as it were), have been encouraging. Sabalenka, the No.5 seed at this Australian Open, is into the third round, facing her former doubles partner, Elise Mertens, in a Saturday match. Sabalenka has fired 35 aces (one behind the departed Veronika Kudermetova) and suffered only 22 double faults, a ratio she can live with.

A famously fiery spirit, Sabalenka has kept her head in the bottom half of the draw -- losing only nine games -- when many around her haven’t. There has been a considerable thinning of the herd. When No.2 seed Ons Jabeur was knocked out by Marketa Vondrousova on Thursday, nine of the bottom half's 16 seeds (including three of the Top 10), were gone before the third round.

Sabalenka and her old nemesis Garcia are the two highest seeds left in the bottom half and could meet in what would be a tasty semifinal matchup.

Australian Open Day 5

• Three takeaways from Azarenka's Australian Open turnaround vs. Keys
• Australian Open Day 6 preview: Sabalenka's serve key to turnaround
• Pegula, Gauff keep cruising, reach Australian Open fourth round
• Swiatek rolls, Rybakina bests Collins in Australian Open third round

Losing eight of her first 15 matches in 2022, Sabalenka’s serve was a mess. She tried everything: mental drills, technical tweaks, different breathing techniques, watching copious amounts of video.

The issue was rooted in her childhood approach. Growing up, it was her power that often got her out of trouble.

“I was just hitting the ball as hard as I could, and I hope that one day I will find the right target,” Sabalenka said. “I always was aggressive player, and I always, as a kid especially, wanted to finish it easily on my serve. So probably that’s why I hit it hard, and that’s why my weapon.”

At the professional level, however, that mindset was a liability. Now, at the age of 24, she seems to have found the maturity -- the serenity? -- to take a little off her fastball in the big moments. She’s 6-0 this year, winning the title in Adelaide, and might be the best WTA candidate this year to win her first Grand Slam singles title. Sabalenka has reached the semifinals in three of the past five majors in which she’s played.

Mertens poses an interesting challenge. Together they won five doubles titles, two of them majors. After taking two of their first three singles matches, the No.26-seeded Mertens has lost five straight -- the past four in straight sets.

“I worked a lot on my serve -- really a lot,” Sabalenka said. “You can’t even imagine how much I worked. I’m just super happy right now that everything is working.”

Here are a handful of notable matches from Saturday’s bottom half of the draw:

[4] Caroline Garcia vs. Laura Siegemund

Like Sabalenka, Garcia is determined to improve her showing in the majors. She reached her first Grand Slam semifinal at last year’s US Open and made the third round here for the fifth time, the first in four years. Previously, though, she’s lost three of her four third-round matches. Garcia’s coming off an impressive 7-6(5), 7-5 win over Leylah Fernandez. She beat Siegemund, the unseeded German player, in their only meeting, two years ago in a first-round match at Roland Garros. Siegemund has scored three-set wins over Lucia Bronzetti and No.27 seed Irina-Camelia Begu.

[12] Belinda Bencic vs. Camila Giorgi

They meet for the sixth time in their careers, but haven’t played since 2019. Bencic has a 3-2 edge. In beating Claire Liu, Bencic posted her 50th Grand Slam singles victory.

[19] Ekaterina Alexandrova vs. Magda Linette

The unseeded Linette upset No.16 Anett Kontaveit in three sets to equal her best run ever (2018) at the Australian Open. The 30-year-old Polish No.2 is trying to advance to the second week of a major for the first time -- in her 30th attempt. The head-to-head is 1-1, with Linette winning four years ago in Seoul and Alexandrova taking last year’s Charleston quarterfinal 6-0, 6-2.

[23] Zhang Shuai vs. [Q] Katie Volynets

On one side, we have 33-year-old Zhang, a veteran of 79 Grand Slam singles matches. On the other, the 21-year-old Volynets, with all of eight, the only qualifier left in this half of the draw. The American upset No.9 seed Veronika Kudermetova in three sets to advance to her first third-round at a major. These two have never played.

Marketa Vondrousova vs. Linda Fruhvirtova

This is one of only two unseeded third-round matchups in the bottom half and it features two Czech Republic players coming from different directions. Ranked at No.82, the 17-year-old Fruhvirtova is only four spots ahead of Vondrousova, who is six years older. Vondrousova was a finalist at Roland Garros in 2019 but has struggled with wrist injuries ever since. She started the 2023 season with wins against Alexandrova and Kaia Kanepi, ranked No.19 and No.32, respectively. And then Vondrousova upset No.2 seed Ons Jabeur in the second round after losing the three previous matches. This is another first-time match.