WTA Finals Day 3 preview: Sakkari meets Sabalenka in night session

The Nancy Richey Group reaches its midway point on Day 3 of the WTA Finals Fort Worth as No.2 seed Ons Jabeur faces No.3 seed Jessica Pegula in a rematch of the Madrid final, and No.5 seed Maria Sakkari takes on No.7 seed Aryna Sabalenka at a second straight WTA Finals.

Sakkari, who Monday defeated Pegula in straight sets, has the opportunity to seal her semifinal place if she wins in straight sets again. Conversely, Pegula will be eliminated if she loses in straight sets.
 
If Pegula beats Jabeur and Sakkari beats Sabalenka, Jabeur will be eliminated and Sakkari will advance as group winner. (Pegula and Sabalenka would play for second spot on Friday.)

Day 1 reports: Sakkari d. Pegula | Sabalenka d. Jabeur
 
If Jabeur beats Pegula and Sabalenka beats Sakkari, Pegula will be eliminated and Sabalenka will advance as group winner. (Sakkari and Jabeur would play for second spot on Friday.)
  
Any other combination of results will mean advancement comes down to the final matches.

WTA Finals group scenarios: How Sakkari can advance to the semifinals

[2] Ons Jabeur (TUN) vs. [3] Jessica Pegula (USA)

Head-to-head: Jabeur leads 3-2 (2-0 in 2022, 2-2 on hard courts)

1. Jabeur owns their recent head-to-head. Jabeur lost their first two meetings, but has won all three since last September, including victory in the Madrid final this May to capture her first WTA 1000 title. However, it hasn't been a straightforward pendulum swing. Wild momentum shifts characterise most of their matches. Pegula's last win in the series was in the 2021 Montréal quarterfinals with a 1-6, 7-6(4), 6-0 score line. Jabeur's first win over the American came 1-6, 6-2, 6-3 in the 2021 Chicago quarterfinals, and the Madrid final score line was a topsy-turvy 7-5, 0-6, 6-2.

They have also played once on indoor hard courts, when neither was ranked in the Top 100, with Pegula winning 7-6(3), 6-4 in the 2018 Québec City second round en route to her first WTA final.

2. The Fort Worth conditions may favour Jabeur. After the first day of play in Fort Worth, consensus among the players was that the court is slow and low-bouncing. Pegula, in particular, said that she struggled to adapt.

"Usually if there's a slow court, [it] bounces a little higher," she said after her loss to Sakkari. "But I think it's also weird because you're indoors and you're expecting indoors to be quicker. And it's not. But it's not bad. It's just very slow [...] I think it definitely caters to the players that want more time [...] Hopefully, I can figure it out by Wednesday."

Road to the WTA Finals: Ons Jabeur | Jessica Pegula

Meanwhile, Sakkari gave the advantage to Jabeur in the group, albeit speaking prior to the Tunisian's loss.

"The conditions are ideal for her game," Sakkari said.

3. How will each bounce back from disappointment? Both Jabeur and Pegula experienced disappointing WTA Finals debuts, with each losing as the higher-ranked player. For the first time, they are in a situation whereby defeat doesn't mean a tournament exit -- and so regrouping quickly is paramount.

Pegula was sanguine about her chances.

"I think I'll bounce back OK," she said. "I'm obviously disappointed I lost, but I honestly thought I played pretty well. And I thought it was a high-level match. So I don't really think it's a negative. [...] I think I'll reset pretty quickly mentally. You know, I feel like I'm still playing well. So I want to give myself a chance Wednesday to do that."

Highlights: Pegula d. Jabeur, QF Montréal 2021 | Jabeur d. Pegula, R3 Chicago 2021 | Jabeur d. Pegula, F Madrid 2022

By contrast, Jabeur -- who led by a set, then 5-3 in the second-set tiebreak, then 4-2 in the third set -- was less certain.

"I usually have more time, obviously. This time I have to really put my thoughts in the right direction. Definitely put the anger that I have inside in the right direction. And yes, we are both in the same situation with Jess. So I'm just gonna challenge myself and see how I'm gonna react in this one. Definitely a lot of pressure on both of us. I'm gonna do my best to really get my head focused now and focus on the win."

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ons jabeur

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TUN

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66.7% Win 4

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33.3% Win 2

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USA

[5] Maria Sakkari (GRE) vs. [7] Aryna Sabalenka

Head-to-head: Sabalenka leads 4-2, all on hard courts

1. This is their second straight meeting in the WTA Finals round robin. Last year, with a semifinal on the line for the winner, Sakkari was a 7-6(1), 6-7(6), 6-3 victor. At 2 hours and 47 minutes, it was the longest match of the WTA Finals Guadalajara, and it also snapped a four-match losing streak for the Greek against Sabalenka. Will she be able to draw on that experience to reprise the result?

2. Both players have received a confidence boost after patchy seasons. Neither Sakkari nor Sabalenka had scored a win over a Top 10 player since the first half of the year before their Monday victories. Sakkari referred to her mid-season stretch as "my dark phase," while Sabalenka joked: "I'm No.1 in double faults this season, you know? This one, I know 100%."

But both players also gave the press an insight into the mentality that meant that not only had they managed to qualify for the WTA Finals, but are winning again now they're here.

Road to the WTA Finals: Maria Sakkari | Aryna Sabalenka

"I cannot give up easily," said Sabalenka, who only served six double faults against Jabeur. "That's how my family raised me."

Meanwhile, Sakkari was inspired by the quality of the opposition.

"It's exciting to play players that are playing good right now, just to force myself to play a little bit better and just to see what I can do against them again."

3. Sabalenka will test Sakkari's closing ability. Despite the straight-sets win, Sakkari admitted to nerves in trying to close out Pegula. She led 3-0 in the second set and held her first two match points at 6-5, but ultimately needed a third in the second-set tiebreak to seal victory. There will be even more at stake on Wednesday, as Sakkari will specifically need to win in two sets to guarantee a semifinal place.

Highlights: Sabalenka d. Sakkari, RR Zhuhai 2019 | Sabalenka d. Sakkari, R2 Dubai 2020 | Sabalenka d. Sakkari, R2 Doha 2020 | Sabalenka d. Sakkari, SF Abu Dhabi 2021 | Sakkari d. Sabalenka, RR WTA Finals Guadalajara 2021

Sabalenka, who has contested more three-set tour matches than any other player this year (27), will be ready to fight back at any sign of shakiness.

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maria sakkari

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GRE

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30% Win 3

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70% Win 7

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BLR

In doubles, the Rosie Casals Group continues. Monday's winners will face off, with No.1 seeds Barbora Krejcikova and Katerina Siniakova taking on No.6 seeds Xu Yifan and Yang Zhaoxuan. It will be a first meeting between the teams, though Xu and Yang have two victories over Krejcikova in 2022 (when the Czech partnered Zhang Shuai in Sydney and Ena Shibahara in Eastbourne).

Monday's losers will also square off. No.3 seeds Coco Gauff and Pegula will meet No.8 seeds Desirae Krawczyk and Demi Schuurs for the fourth time this year. Gauff and Pegula lead the series 2-1, including both their hard-court encounters in the Toronto quarterfinals and San Diego semifinals.

Krejcikova/Siniakova will advance if they win in straight sets; Krawczyk/Schuurs will be eliminated if they lose in straight sets.
 
If Krejcikova/Siniakova and Krawczyk/Schuurs both win, Krejcikova/Siniakova advance as group winner and Gauff/Pegula are eliminated. (Krawczyk/Schuurs and Xu/Yang would play for second spot on Friday.)
 
If Xu/Yang and Gauff/Pegula win, Xu/Yang advance as group winner and Krawczyk/Schuurs are eliminated. (Krejcikova/Siniakova and Gauff/Pegula would play for second spot on Friday.)