The 96-strong BNP Paribas Open field will be narrowed down to the final four on Thursday as quarterfinal action is completed. Both matches feature a Top 10 player taking on a player they have never previously beaten.
[5] Paula Badosa (ESP) vs. [21] Veronika Kudermetova
Badosa has arguably had the hardest path to the last eight of any quarterfinalist this year. The defending champion had to overturn a 0-3 head-to-head against Tereza Martincova in the second round, grind past friend and compatriot Sara Sorribes Tormo in the third and then end US Open finalist Leylah Fernandez's seven-match winning streak in the fourth.
Indian Wells: Scores | Draw | Order of play
The Spaniard has passed each test in impressive fashion with no sets dropped, demonstrating again how her blend of weighty strokes and relentless consistency suits the conditions to a tee.
"I could show the way and how much I improved today after playing against her," said Badosa after defeating Martincova. She'll get another chance to show that when she takes on Kudermetova, against whom she also has a 0-3 record. Unlike Martincova, whose victories all predated Badosa's breakthrough 2021 season, Kudermetova notched two of her wins last year.
Kudermetova has reached two finals in 2022 already, and risen to a career high of No.24. These feats have flown somewhat under the radar, though - perhaps due to receiving semifinal walkovers in both tournaments, from Naomi Osaka at Melbourne Summer Set 1 and from Marketa Vondrousova in Dubai. In Indian Wells, Kudermetova got to play - and beat - both to reach her first WTA 1000 quarterfinal.
Badosa and Kudermetova, both born in 1997, have enjoyed parallel steady rises, both breaking the Top 100 in 2019 and winning their maiden titles in the first half of 2021. The second half of last year saw Badosa surge ahead into the Top 10, while Kudermetova's singles results took a back seat to her doubles success. But the arc of their careers prior to that should give Kudermetova the belief that she can compete on an equal footing.
Head-to-head: Kudermetova leads 3-0, having won in 2019 Indian Wells qualifying, the 2021 Abu Dhabi third round and the 2021 Charleston 500 quarterfinals.
[6] Maria Sakkari (GRE) vs. [17] Elena Rybakina (KAZ)
"It might sound a little cocky, might sound weird as well, but I feel like the tournament starts now for me emotionally," Sakkari declared after advancing to her first Indian Wells quarterfinal, and eighth at WTA 1000 level or above.
"I'm used to going deep. Now I feel like it's not something new for me. I would say from last year I started feeling like it doesn't feel very tiring to go deep into a tournament. [...] I think I just feel very comfortable now being in the later stages of the tournament."
That's a testament to how much Sakkari believes she belongs in the Top 10, having hit that milestone last September. She's certainly lived up to her status this year, compilinga 14-4 record so far.
Rewind to St. Petersburg 2020 and her only previous meeting with Rybakina, and most observers might have picked the Kazakh to break through first. Rybakina won that semifinal match to reach the third of four finals she played in the first two months of that season.
But Rybakina struggled to regain that form consistently following the Covid-19 shutdown, suffering repeated physical setbacks. She started 2022 brightly, reaching the Adelaide 500 final, but plantar fasciitis and blisters on her feet ended her Australian swing prematurely. And in February, she tested positive for Covid-19 just as she had resumed training and competing again.
"I had to retire in Australian Open," she said. "Two weeks I couldn't practice. One week I didn't practice at all. Second week we were trying to do fitness, without running or nothing because I couldn't walk. It was really bad.
"In St. Petersburg I was, again, happy that finally I can move and can play matches. I played one round. At night I felt really bad. I didn't expect that Covid is going to be that hard for me. It was really, really tough. In one week I think I lost four kilos. I had high fever. I really didn't expect. I thought it's going to be easier.
"Here is the first tournament I can say, yes, after corona I'm feeling much better. I'm not coughing. Maybe physically, as I said, I didn't have good preparation, didn't practice much, but at least I'm very happy that now I can play."
Head-to-head: Rybakina leads 1-0, having won 3-6, 7-5, 6-1 in the 2020 St. Petersburg semifinals.