For three of the four players in Group Teotihuacán, there's a lot on the line on the final day of the round-robin stage.
Anett Kontaveit, who won her opening two matches in straight sets, is the only player already guaranteed a semifinal place. She will finish atop the group unless she loses to Garbiñe Muguruza and Barbora Krejcikova defeats Karolina Pliskova.
Check out the chart below to see how the other scenarios could play out based on Sunday's results.
[2] Barbora Krejcikova (CZE) vs. [3] Karolina Pliskova (CZE)
Krejcikova and Pliskova go back a long way. The Czech pair first played each other exactly a decade ago, in the first round of the 2011 Bratislava ITF W25 event. Krejcikova was a 15-year-old wildcard ranked No.895, and Pliskova the 19-year-old, No.159-ranked No.5 seed. Pliskova dismissed the younger player 6-1, 6-3 and went on to the final, which she lost to Lesia Tsurenko.
Seven years later, they met again in the first round of Roland Garros 2018 - Krejcikova's Grand Slam singles main-draw debut after coming through qualifying, as it happened. This time, it was closer - but Pliskova, the No.6 seed, asserted her authority with a 7-6(6), 6-4 win.
In terms of pure game, those results can be thrown out to an extent. Both have evolved into very different players in the years since. But when compatriots play each other, there can often be an extra wrinkle of a long-established hierarchy. Case-in-point: the near-stranglehold that Petra Kvitova and Simona Halep have over their fellow countrywomen.
Pliskova hasn't been quite so dominant as Kvitova against fellow Czechs, but her 26-9 record in WTA main draws indicates how she has underlined her status at or near the top of the pecking order. But Krejcikova is now the Czech No.1, and beginning to make her own moves along these lines. While she lost her first three WTA main-draw matches against compatriots, she is currently on a five-match winning streak dating back to Roland Garros 2020.
Another factor could be the schedule. Pliskova defeated Garbiñe Muguruza in a night match, but mustered just four games against Anett Kontaveit in the afternoon slot - something she said had affected her.
Head to Head
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"I think the conditions are very different compared to day and night," she said. "I think I was struggling a bit. The bounces were much higher today than obviously when it's 15 degrees less in the evening. I don't think there's any ideal plan for these conditions."
Champion's Reels: Barbora Krejcikova, Strasbourg 2021 | Barbora Krejcikova, Prague 2021
Krejcikova is still searching for her first WTA Finals victory - indeed, she is now on a five-match losing streak dating back to Indian Wells, including last week's Billie Jean King Cup Finals. But after losing in three sets to Muguruza, she feels positively about her chances.
"I was just a little short at the end," Krejcikova said. "But I think I did a really good match, I did a really good performance. I'm actually really happy that every single day I'm improving and I'm getting better. It's a really, really good thing for me. Just today match was really close. I was just the one that was unlucky. That's it."
With so many scenarios in play, efficiency will be paramount for Pliskova and Krejcikova. Winning in straight sets will significantly boost their chances of moving into the semifinals, though their fates will still be in the hands of Muguruza and Kontaveit in the second match.
Head-to-head: Pliskova leads 2-0
[6] Garbiñe Muguruza (ESP) vs. [8] Anett Kontaveit (EST)
The last match of a group stage is often prone to unusual dynamics, and that's certainly the case here. Kontaveit's semifinal place is already guaranteed, though her position in the group is not. However, what Muguruza requires to join her will be very different depending on the result of the first match.
If Pliskova has beaten Krejcikova in straight sets, Muguruza must win in straight sets herself. But if Krejcikova has beaten Pliskova, Muguruza will only need a set to progress.
Either of those might be difficult in light of Kontaveit's spectacular autumn form, which included a 48-minute 6-1, 6-1 rout of Muguruza in the Moscow quarterfinals three weeks ago. The Estonian might not need another win, but after spending just 2 hours and 12 minutes on court in her first two matches combined, preserving her momentum will be more important than saving her energy.
Champion's Reels: Anett Kontaveit, Cleveland 2021 | Anett Kontaveit, Ostrava 2021 | Anett Kontaveit, Moscow 2021 | Anett Kontaveit, Transylvania Open 2021
And what momentum it is. Kontaveit's numbers get more ridiculous by the day. She has now won 28 of her past 30 matches, and has extended her active winning streak to 12. She has won 14 sets in a row, 24 of her past 25, and 41 of her past 44 dating back to September. Since then, there has been no one better at simply shutting opponents out of matches completely.
"I think I've really been enjoying being on court, just having a good time," Kontaveit said after defeating Pliskova. "I think that's been the main thing why I've been doing so well. I do feel like I can take on everyone. I never expect an easy match, I always expect it to be tough."
Champion's Reel: Garbiñe Muguruza, Dubai 2021 | Garbiñe Muguruza, Chicago Fall 2021
In Muguruza's favour will be the crowd, which she credited for helping her pull off a comeback against Krejcikova.
"In the second set the crowd really helped me," she said. "I said before, and I really mean it, because they cheer me up. I realise that, hey, I'm not leaving this court without changing things around at least or give Barbora the biggest fight."
Highlights: Kontaveit d. Muguruza, QF Moscow 2021
Having said that, home support for her opponents hasn't bothered Kontaveit much recently. She demolished Petra Kvitova 6-0, 6-4 in Ostrava and Simona Halep 6-2, 6-3 in Cluj-Napoca. In between, she overturned a 4-6, 0-4 deficit to deny Ekaterina Alexandrova 4-6, 6-4, 7-5 in Moscow. Right now, Kontaveit seems invincible.
Head-to-head: Tied at 2-2. Muguruza won 6-0, 6-4 in the first round of the 2016 Australian Open and 6-7(4), 6-4, 6-2 in the second round of Roland Garros 2017. Kontaveit won 2-6, 7-6(1), 6-1 in the second round of Stuttgart 2017 and 6-1, 6-1 in the 2021 Moscow quarterfinals.
AKRON WTA FINALS GUADALAJARA: DAY 5 ORDER OF PLAY
Starting at 2 p.m.
[2] Barbora KREJCIKOVA (CZE) vs [3] Karolina PLISKOVA (CZE)
[2] Shuko AOYAMA (JPN) / Ena SHIBAHARA (JPN) vs [5] Samantha STOSUR (AUS) / ZHANG Shuai (CHN)
Not before 7.30 p.m.
[6] Garbiñe MUGURUZA (ESP) vs [8] Anett KONTAVEIT (EST)
[4] Nicole MELICHAR-MARTINEZ (USA) / Demi SCHUURS (NED) vs [7] Darija JURAK (CRO) / Andreja KLEPAC (SLO)
