The keys to Aryna Sabalenka's Wimbledon championship bid

No one knows grass like Martina Navratilova.
The nine-time Wimbledon champion had an intimate understanding of that slippery slope, winning 314 of the 356 matches she played on the green stuff. Going forward -- attacking with a big serve followed by a sprint to net and a put-away volley -- was her calling card. Forcing the issue, her modus operandi.
Navratilova can be (in)famously critical of today’s players, who sit back on the baseline and wait for an error from the other side. But listen to her talk about Aryna Sabalenka.
“She’s very imposing,” Navratilova said recently. “It’s like, 'Oh, where do I go now?’ You have to execute really well against her.”
This was evident in last week’s Berlin quarterfinals, when Sabalenka and Rybakina -- at the moment, perhaps the two most gifted practitioners on grass -- played a spectacular match lasting 2 hours and 42 minutes. How close was it? The first and third sets were both deadlocked in tiebreaks when Sabalenka found a way to win the last two points.
She saved four match points at the end, winning the last six points.
Sabalenka wasn’t as sharp the next round against 2023 Wimbledon champion Marketa Vondrousova, falling 6-2, 6-4. After more than a week off, Sabalenka should be ready to go at Wimbledon.
“She’s got a lot of power -- but not that massive swing,” Navratilova said. “And she’s got neutral grips on both the forehand and backhand, which has hurt both Swiatek and Gauff on the grass with the forehand. Their backhands are money, but the forehand is not as effective because of the [lower] bounce.
“Whereas Sabalenka is equally solid on both sides. I don’t know which side I would play more -- probably depends on the day or the moment. Which is the better shot for me, and how has she been hitting the forehand and the backhand the last 15 minutes? It’s hard to find a weakness or an opening against her.”
Sabalenka has an interesting history at Wimbledon, where she’s won 11 of her 16 matches. She made the semifinals the last two times she played, in 2021 and 2023, but did not play in 2022 or 2024.
And while no one comes to net often enough to satisfy the purist in Navratilova, Sabalenka gets generally good marks.
“She’s gotten better at the net with the touch shots,” Navratilova said. “The dropshot is still not her strength, but it’s getting better. The volleys are a little predictable; she usually comes in on killer shots. Good overhead, moves back well enough.”
In a tribute to her versatility, Sabalenka could be the third woman to reach the final at Australian Open, Roland Garros and Wimbledon in a single season, following Justine Henin (2006) and Serena Williams (2015 and 2016) -- and only the fifth No. 1 since 1985 – a feat Navratilova achieved in 1987.
“She’s a pretty complete player,” Navratilova said. “I think clay would be her worst surface -- and she could have, maybe should have, won at Roland Garros.
“On the grass, the serve is going to pay off more, slice pays off nicely. She’s got a kick [serve] as well, obviously, which on the grass becomes more unpredictable. She’s pretty athletic, so the lower bounce, she gets down pretty well. She’s solid, she’s grounded when she’s hitting her shots. You don’t see her off balance too much.
“She’s my favorite to win the tournament.”